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Friday, 20 November 2015

College Football Week 12 Picks 2015 (November 21st)

This month has been a hectic one for me but I am hoping things will settle down somewhat over the next few days.

Life is seemingly too busy for my usual posts and that is just the way it goes at times, but I am going to put up my College Football Week 12 Picks after a solid Week 11 returned the picks to profitable status.

Week 12 Picks
The Week 11 Picks went 7-4 although I have to say I was remarkably surprised with how poorly the Baylor Bears played in a home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners. I was convinced the Bears would be the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, but that Conference looks certain to have a one loss Champion for the second season in a row, although it will be 'joint-Champions' that potentially leaves the Conference out of the National Championship picture.

One of the surprise elements could be seeing a team like the Houston Cougars perhaps getting into the final four or the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as the best of the one-loss teams that won't be involved in a Championship Game.

These things will all be cleared up in the next couple of weeks I feel and that means the games in Week 12 and Week 13 are absolutely huge as the regular season winds down.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: The Kansas Jayhawks haven't had much success in the Big 12 games in recent years and they are coming off a big effort where they ultimately came up short against the TCU Horned Frogs.

I am not sure how they can pick themselves up again this week and the seniors may instead be looking ahead to their final home game next weekend. I have little doubt the Jayhawks will want to finish their season with a flourish and they did beat West Virginia when they last met here two years ago, but this Mountaineers team is battle hardened and looking to secure Bowl eligibility as soon as possible.

Revenge for that defeat two years ago will be on the mind of West Virginia and I think the Mountaineers have the balanced Offense to beat a team that put a huge emotional effort into a losing effort in Week 11.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: With two teams that have lost at least six games in a row and are almost both out of Bowl contention, it is little surprise that the public are backing the road underdog. The Indiana Hoosiers put in a huge effort to barely fail to beat Michigan last week and I do wonder if that has taken something from their tank.

However, the Hoosiers can win their last two games to reach six wins for the season and become eligible for a Bowl game and they have been looking much more competitive than Maryland.

Even the firing of Randy Edsall has done nothing for Maryland who have lost seven in a row even if the players are still trying. However, the Bowl chances are gone and you have to wonder if they have enough motivation to beat an Indiana team that is still fighting for a post-season berth.

The Maryland Defensive unit have played well enough to keep the team in this one and I think they are a dangerous team. However, I have to take the points with the road team here to keep this competitive.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: When the spread was released at the start of the week, the Miami Hurricanes were surprisingly favoured to win this game. That is no longer the case but I still think the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are going to be the too strong for the home team who have struggled to stop anyone running the ball against them.

It is something of a surprise if you were to just read the records of these two teams as to who is favoured. Georgia Tech are secured a losing record while Miami are Bowl eligible, but the Yellow Jackets have been unlucky so often this season that they are a better team than their record suggests.

On the other hand Miami are fortunate to be 2-2 in their last four games after a controversial win over the Duke Blue Devils, but the bigger fear will be the way they have been pounded on the ground. Both Clemson and North Carolina have had enough success to think the triple-option run by Georgia Tech is going to be too much for them this week.

Miami might not have the same level of success against an under-rated Georgia Tech Defensive unit and I like the road team to come through with the win.

Michigan State Spartans @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The Michigan State Spartans had a controversial loss attached to their name else this would be a battle of the unbeaten teams in the Big Ten East. It is no surprise that the public have decided to back the road underdog, but don't be surprised that the sharps are backing the defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes as there have been signs the spread is going to move upwards.

Neither team has been cashing too many cheques at the counter, but the Ohio State Buckeyes have certainly looked stronger with JT Barrett as the starting Quarter Back. Connor Cook is the star for the Spartans and is expected to play too, but I think the Buckeyes have the better Defensive unit which will make all the difference on the day as well as the fact that they host this game.

Ohio State were 12 point winners on the road last season and they have won their last five games by at least fourteen points each. When you add in that Michigan State should have lost to the Michigan Wolverines I think there is definitely a talent edge leaning towards the home team.

You can't doubt it is a big spread, but I think the Buckeyes make more plays on both sides of the ball and come through to cover.

LSU Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: A once promising season is petering out for the LSU Tigers who have lost back to back games heading into this game at the Mississippi Rebels. While they try and pick themselves up, the Rebels are off a bye and should be ready for the challenge of hosting the LSU Tigers.

Les Miles' Head Coaching role has been questioned this week and I do wonder how his players can pick themselves up. Both Alabama and Arkansas dared LSU to beat them through the air and they have failed to do that, but I am looking for them to have a response to their two losses in a row.

The game against Arkansas was always going to be one where the Tigers would be flat after losing to Alabama, but I think they would have heard all the negatives about their team. That should fire them up and while I think the Mississippi Rebels are a solid team, to cover this big number is not going to be easy for them.

The road team is 11-4 against the spread in the series and I like the Tigers to cover and show they are better than they have the last two weeks.

USC Trojans @ Oregon Ducks Pick: The Oregon Ducks have looked a lot better with Vernon Adams healthy at Quarter Back and they have won four in a row, although they have been outgained in terms of yardage in two of those games. A big win over the Stanford Cardinal have given Oregon a chance of perhaps getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game again, but they still look to be asked to cover a big number this week.

It has been a disappointing season for USC of whom so much was expected this year, but they have also won four in a row and are also not too far away from getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game themselves.

I really think both teams have a chance of putting up some big points in this one and I can see this being competitive throughout. That makes the points on the road underdog look attractive and I think Oregon are perhaps over-rated a little having won games when they have not been winning the yardage battle.

The win over Stanford would have taken some emotional effort too and getting more than a Field Goal looks a lot of points.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Missouri Tigers Pick: With the two games they have yet to play in the regular season, Tennessee look on course to have their most wins in a single season since 2007. Of course it won't be easy on the road at Missouri considering the Tigers still need a win to become Bowl eligible and this is their final home game of the season.

Missouri had a surprise win over the BYU Cougars last week but Tennessee are a better team and I do think the Volunteers can underline their improvement this season by winning this one by a Touchdown at least.

My concern would have to be that the Tigers Defensive unit is a very good one and seems to match up well with Tennessee's, but I still do think the Volunteers are the better team and will show that on the scoreboard. There is enough balance Offensively for Tennessee to get through the Tigers and keep the chains moving while I don't know if Missouri have a strong enough Offense to get this done.

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The Baylor Bears were beaten at home by the Oklahoma Sooners last week and were a little banged up Offensively. It doesn't get easier in the Big 12 as they visit the only unbeaten team in the Conference in the Oklahoma State Cowboys who might be the Conference's best bet to reach the National Championship Play Off.

This has recently been a very tough place for Baylor to visit and I do wonder if they can bounce back from a very disappointing home loss to the Sooners. The Cowboys have already blown out the TCU Horned Frogs at home and Oklahoma State arguably look a stronger team on both sides of the ball especially in the current health of both teams.

Even the narrow win over the Iowa State Cyclones has to be taken with a pinch of salt as the Cowboys were off a big win over the Horned Frogs and perhaps looking ahead to this game.

I think the Oklahoma State Defense might create a couple of turnovers and stall a couple of Baylor drives to lead them to the win in this one and I like them to cover, especially as the disrespected home underdog.

Boston College Eagles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish might just have a chance to reach the National Championship Play Off if they can remain unbeaten in their final games of the season. Their one loss to the Clemson Tigers, by only two points, looks an incredibly strong one and Fighting Irish have been playing very well despite being hit with the injury bug through the season.

I think they have will have a little too much on both sides of the ball for the Boston College Eagles. The Boston College Eagles have lost six in a row and they have struggled Offensively and now face a pretty strong Fighting Irish Defensive unit.

One thing I will say is that the Boston College Defense is definitely legit and will give Notre Dame something to think about. However their Offensive struggles means that Defensive unit can be worn down and that has been a problem for them all season.

Three of their last four games have seen Boston College lose by at least sixteen points and I will look for Notre Dame to reach that margin too.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: I was very impressed with the way the Oklahoma Sooners handled themselves in their victory over the Baylor Bears and now they face a banged up TCU Horned Frogs team on both sides of the ball.

Trevone Boykin is questionable while Josh Doctson is out for the rest of the season and I am not sure how the Horned Frogs will find enough Offense against this Oklahoma Defensive unit which might be the best in the Big 12.

On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield looked incredibly confident last week and it would be a surprise if he suddenly moved into a really nervous position. Oklahoma looked very good Offensively and they moved the chains consistently last week and I think they have enough success against this Defensive unit to keep things going.

It is a big number, but TCU look too banged up to compete with Oklahoma to me and I think the Sooners can set up a huge game with State rivals Oklahoma State next week.

MY PICKS: West Virginia Mountaineers - 28 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
USC Trojans + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 15.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 11: 7-4, + 2.33 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.18% Yield)
Week 104-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 93-6, - 3.29 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.56% Yield)
Week 85-6, - 1.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.09% Yield)
Week 711-3, + 7.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 50.71% Yield
Week 68-5, + 2.49 Units (13 Units Staked, + 19.15% Yield)
Week 56-7, - 1.50 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.54% Yield)
Week 48-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 36-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 25-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 17-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield

Season 201570-54-2, + 10.43 Units (126 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)
Season 201475-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 201365-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 201254-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 201163-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

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