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Wednesday, 18 November 2015

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2015 (November 18th)

It was a bit of frustrating time on Tuesday as both picks missed a big opportunity to win and cover- Tomas Berdych admitted his missed break point at 3-3 in the deciding set when he dominated the point was the key one in the entire match.

Novak Djokovic had an early opportunity against Roger Federer, but I was impressed with the way the latter played in his win and he will take plenty of confidence into the rest of the week as he looks to win the Tour Finals and perhaps steal the World Number 2 Ranking from Andy Murray.

On Wednesday Group B is back in action and opens up with Rafael Nadal taking on Andy Murray before Stan Wawrinka takes on David Ferrer in the evening session.

Rafael Nadal + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The last time these players met Andy Murray destroyed Rafael Nadal on the clay courts of Madrid in what had to be arguably his best performance of the season. Now the Spaniard has a chance for revenge by beating Murray in front of his own fans and this is a match that will likely decide which of the players is going to top the Group.

Both players put together a solid win in their opening matches, but I have to say Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka was perhaps the better of the two on Monday.

It was the kind of win that shows how improved Nadal's confidence has been in the last couple of months since the US Open. He has still not quite got the consistency in his length off the ground, but Nadal has been returning well and he can certainly give Andy Murray plenty to think about in this match.

Of course Andy Murray has been in fine form too and came into this Group as the favourite to win it. However, Nadal is playing much better than he was back when beaten in Madrid and he has a very strong record against Murray in the head to head with his additional aggression breaking down the British Number 1.

Only one of the six matches played have gone three sets this week so far, but this has every chance of being another and I think the games have to be taken. That is especially the case when I think Nadal could win this one outright although Andy Murray is playing at a good enough level to deservedly feel the favourite.

Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: The loser of this match is very likely to be going home before the Semi Final and both players need to get a bad performance out of their system. David Ferrer didn't play that badly, but was clearly the inferior player against Andy Murray, while Stan Wawrinka looked out of sorts both in terms of his play and his focus in a very one-sided loss to Rafael Nadal.

The fact is that Wawrinka earned the first break of the match against Nadal, but his lack of effort in the final set was a big concern. There wasn't anything he was suffering from physically in that match, but Wawrinka did recognise his poor effort in the second set and I really expect him to bounce back in this one.

He has beaten David Ferrer three times in a row, although they haven't played this season, and one of those wins came here in London in the Tour Finals two years ago. You know what we are going to see from Ferrer who will work hard and try to frustrate Wawrinka and extract the same amount of unforced errors that Nadal got from him on Monday.

The problem is I don't think Wawrinka will play as poorly as that after what he said in his press conference after the loss to Nadal. Wawrinka clearly understands what he was doing wrong and beating Ferrer three straight times means he should have confidence he can win this match.

Ferrer will make life difficult as he does, but I like Wawrinka to come through in two sets and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 3.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.5% Yield)