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Saturday, 3 October 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 3rd)

The tournaments from this week are wrapping up and that means we are down to the last couple of days in Shenzhen, Wuhan and Kuala Lumpur before we head to Beijing and Tokyo for big events next week.

Friday was a good day for the picks as all four made came into the winner's enclosure to turn around the week from the negative into a positive. I will make a couple of picks from the Semi Finals to be played on Saturday with the hope that these two will confirm a positive result for the second week in a row and get the season totals back into the positive too.

Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Tommy Robredo: These two met in Cincinnati in what was a one-sided win for Tomas Berdych and I do wonder if the big hitters have a little too much in their game for Tommy Robredo these days. It would be no surprise that the Spaniard has lost perhaps a little bit of speed around the court and perhaps that means his defensive skills have just eroded to the point that the heavy hitters are able to puncture his defences a little more frequently.

It isn't just the battering Robredo took at the hands of Berdych in Cincinnati, but Milos Raonic has also beaten the Spaniard twice this season for the loss of five games and then three games in St Petersburg last week.

While the likes of Berdych and Raonic can keep the pressure on Robredo with their serves too, the latter has to work hard for the points he earns and that once again leads to the possibility that these players get the edge in the rally to the point they are able to hit through Robredo.

Berdych has also been in the better form this week and I expect he will have a little too much for Robredo and the best I can see for the latter is a 63, 64 defeat in this Semi Final.

David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: It was not surprise that David Ferrer had to ride out some tough moments in his first match here, but he looked a lot more comfortable in the Quarter Final win over Mikhail Kukushkin. I fancy he can back up his sole previous win over Benjamin Becker despite the latter earning a very good win over Grigor Dimitrov on Friday.

However, that win isn't as a good as it might have looked twelve months ago as Dimitrov puts the finishing touches on a poor 2015 season. There is every chance that Dimitrov will finish outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings and Becker will have to dig deep to see off David Ferrer in a similar manner.

Becker hasn't done a lot of winning prior to this week and Ferrer is going to make him play a lot of balls and expose his consistency. If the German serves well this could be a difficult match for Ferrer, but I would fancy his defensive skills to force enough balls back in play to extract errors and earn more break point chances than he gives away.

Of course the Ferrer serve can be vulnerable, but he served well against Mikhail Kukushkin and I think the Spaniard moves into the Final after a tight 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.20 Units (26 Units Staked, + 16.15% Yield)

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