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Monday, 26 October 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 26th)

The WTA Tour Finals began on Sunday, but the rest of the tournaments that are being played this week begin their main draw matches on Monday in both Basel and Valencia. The tennis season is winding down and I have accepted that this is comfortably the worst season for the picks with the last three months being completely poor and ruining what had been a strong season to that point.

I will make some adjustments in the off-season to make sure that I won't have that happen again, but I also don't want to change too much considering it looked like being a very strong season up until the middle of July.

There aren't too many matches scheduled for Monday in the main draws of the three events being played this week, but I do have two picks from the matches taking place.

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Lucie Safarova: This would easily be the biggest title of Garbine Muguruza's career if she can win the WTA Tour Finals as one of the favourites this week. She has been in decent form of late having won the title in Beijing as well as reaching the Final in Wuhan and Muguruza should be confident heading to Singapore.

A lot more confident than Lucie Safarova who has lost four matches in a row and has been suffering with an illness in the later portion of the season. I really like the tennis that Safarova has produced over the last eighteen months, but she would need to be at her best to get the better of Muguruza for the second time this season following a straight sets win at the French Open.

The serve can be very effective and that makes Safarova dangerous, but she might not have the same level of fitness to maintain that and it will be difficult for her to beat an in-form Muguruza.

My one concern with a number like this is the fact that Muguruza can be a little inconsistent within a single match and she plays a high-risk brand of tennis that can suddenly produce a lot of mistakes. If she gives Safarova a helping hand with unforced errors, Muguruza could be dragged into a real battle in this opening Group game.

However, Safarova's illness issues are a bigger concern and she has been beaten comfortably in her recent matches and I think Muguruza battles to a 63, 64 win.

Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: There are just two weeks left of the regular season on the ATP Tour and so there might be a lack of motivation for some players in these final weeks. There are plenty of World Ranking points up for grabs, but someone like Santiago Giraldo will have to dig deep considering he has lost his last couple of matches since being forced out of a match in Kuala Lumper.

At least Vasek Pospisil has been putting together some wins of late even if this season has been a mixed bag for the Canadian on the Singles Tour. A Quarter Final run in Kuala Lumper was followed by defeats to Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet during the remainder of the Asian swing, but the wins he has had will give him confidence to move into the Second Round in Valencia.

The Pospisil serve can be a big weapon, but he is not as dominant behind that shot as he potentially could be. However Pospisil is a better returner than many men of his size and it has been part of the reason he has won his three previous matches against Giraldo who will produce a sloppy service game at least once per set.

If the Canadian can take the chances that will likely come his way, I think he makes it four in a row and covers this kind of spread for the fourth straight time too. Pospisil has dropped only two sets from the nine he has competed against Giraldo and both of those came in tie-breakers, but I think he comes through with a sold 75, 64 win in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Weekly Final8-8, - 2.20 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)

Season 2015- 7.21 Units (1724 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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