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Thursday, 29 October 2015

NFL Week 8 Picks 2015 (October 29-November 2)

Week 8 of the NFL season has come around so quickly, I can't believe it has really been two months since the NFL began.

I have written up a few thoughts on Week 7 including Greg Hardy, Dan Campbell's impact in Miami, the failures of the Indianapolis Colts as well as the updated Power Ranking which can be read here.

It has been a difficult few weeks for the NFL Picks after a very strong start to them, but hopefully Week 8 is going to start trending things back in a positive direction.

Week 8 Picks
Week 8 will give us more Divisional battles as well as separating a couple of the unbeaten teams when the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

It is the time of the season when teams can begin to make a move in their respective Divisions and Conferences as we reach the half way mark of their seasons.

Onto the Week 8 Picks.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: I wasn't sure if the Miami Dolphins blow out of the Tennessee Titans was just a reaction to the firing of Joe Philbin, who was seemingly disliked by the players, but last Week 7 brought about another blow out.

Dan Campbell has revitalised a team on both sides of the ball and he clearly has more gumption than his predecessor and I do think the Miami Dolphins will go to the New England Patriots with some belief they can win this game outright.

It is a lot of points for the Dolphins to be given on their current performances and the way the New England Patriots have had to battle through two victories in a row. The physical toll that the New York Jets would have put on New England is hard to recover from in just three days time while the Miami starters were resting up in the blow out win over the Houston Texans.

My concerns are that Miami haven't played well in New England in recent seasons and Tom Brady is still pissed off and trying to destroy teams. He hasn't done that the last two weeks so might be even more motivated to beat up on this Miami Dolphins Defensive unit.

However, I like the Dolphins to cover because I think they can get enough pressure on Tom Brady to at least slow down drives. The last two weeks have seen the Defensive Line get healthy and begin to shown the dominance that many expected of them in the off-season, especially Cameron Wake who has come alive since Kevin Coyle was fired as Defensive Co-Ordinator.

New England will still get their points, but they might not be able to run the ball as effectively as they like and Miami can limit them to give themselves a chance of the upset.

Unlike the Patriots, I don't think Miami will have too many issues establishing Lamar Miller running the ball and he has been in great form the last two weeks. I expect Miami to run the ball straight at the Patriots who have given up 110 yards per game on the ground at 4.5 yards per carry and establishing Miller will only make life a little easier for Ryan Tannehill who has been better, if not perfect, the last couple of weeks.

This isn't a Secondary that can shut teams down as they could if Darrelle Revis was still in town, but New England have gotten immense pressure up front which has led to mistakes or drives stalling. It might not matter to Tannehill if he is in third and short for much of the game and he should be able to keep the chains moving.

All in all it looks like the points being given to Miami are too much although I want a minimum unit on this one with Brady still capable of blowing teams apart when the mood takes him. The Dolphins haven't been good against their fellow AFC East teams, but they have a decent covering rate as the road underdog and I will back them to continue that in Foxboro.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 7: 2-4, - 4.23 Units
Week 63-5-1, - 3.33 Units
Week 53-5-1, - 3.48 Units
Week 44-3-1, + 2.24 Units
Week 38-2, + 9.03 Units
Week 24-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 15-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 201529-26-4, + 5.98 Units
Season 201477-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 201386-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012- 4.78 Units

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