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Tuesday, 20 October 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 20th)

A new week brings in a new tournament as the final WTA events of the season before the WTA Finals are played this week. The ATP events have a few players playing this week who are chasing the World Tour Finals spots remaining after Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych set the top six.

I am still of the belief that Andy Murray pulls out of the event in London, despite being at home, to focus on the Davis Cup Final and that means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's run in Shanghai could be vital for him to return to the World Tour Finals. That might be the most interesting aspect left of the chase for Tour Finals, and it does look like the ninth place in the Rankings is going to be the closest battle over the last month of the season.

Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: I am going to give Pere Riba credit for coming through the Qualifiers here considering he doesn't spend a lot of time on the hard courts. However, the speed of the courts in Moscow is not supposed to be too taxing so it might feel more like a clay court for the Spaniard and might be a reason that Riba has been able to play so well in the Qualifiers.

It won't matter too much in this First Round match against Pablo Cuevas who at least follows the Tour around and has plenty of recent hard court experience. That and the fact that Cuevas has won his four previous matches against Riba without dropping a set although the last of those was four years ago.

Cuevas has been in decent form of late with wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic on the hard courts and I do think he will be more comfortable despite Riba having an edge on the conditions.

This might be like a clay court match between these players on the slower surface, but it is still a hard court match and I think Cuevas' movement helps him move through with a 63, 63 win.

Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 games v David Ferrer: This is an important week for David Ferrer as he looks to add the points to see off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the race for a place in the World Tour Finals. He should have too much in the locker for Albert Ramos Vinolas, but I can't help feeling his compatriot is getting too many games in this one.

The week in Shanghai will be one that Albert Ramos Vinolas will be able to tell his grandkids about one day as he beat the great Roger Federer in three sets. It was a stunning result for Ramos Vinolas who really held his nerves in the final set, but he couldn't do the same in the decider against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round.

He will need to serve well to keep Ferrer at bay in this one, although his compatriot is a very good returner and he has won all four previous matches against Ramos Vinolas. Three of those wins have come very easily, but Ferrer has had to battle much harder to win his matches since returning from his long-term lay off.

Ferrer won the title in Kuala Lumper but didn't cover this number of games once and he has only won by a wider margin in one of his last nine best of three set matches. I do worry that Ramos Vinolas will struggle to back up his week in Shanghai on the hard courts this week, but one key is he is under no pressure compared with Ferrer and I will look for him to keep this close enough to cover.

Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Injuries have hurt Dominika Cibulkova's 2015 season but at least she looks like she is getting back to form and can make another huge effort for the 2016 season. Compare that to Carla Suarez Navarro who has been out of form since the French Open and who had lost eight matches in a row before getting things going again recently.

Suarez Navarro had back to back wins for the first time since June when playing in Beijing earlier this month, but this is a difficult test for her as she has lost all three previous matches to Dominika Cibulkova. That includes in Tokyo a few weeks ago and Suarez Navarro is yet to even win a set against her.

You can see why that might be the case because I think Cibulkova gets a little more out of her serve and has the movement to match the Spaniard. I also believe Cibulkova gets a little more power out of her groundstrokes and it all points to her continuing her strong run against Suarez Navarro.

A solid win over Elena Vesnina in the First Round will have given Cibulkova the edge in getting a feel for the conditions although the slower courts in Moscow will appeal to Suarez Navarro. I don't think it will matter too much and will be expecting Cibulkova to come through this one 64, 64 to match her result from Tokyo.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos Vinolas + 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Final10-10, - 3.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)

Season 2015- 5.01 Units (1692 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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