Weekend Football Picks 2013 (October 19-21)

I don't know about anybody else, but the international breaks at the beginning of the season bore me as they ruin the momentum the club football Leagues have picked up. It just seems far too stop-start for me, but at least we have a month of domestic and European football to enjoy before the next two week 'dead' period.

There is a full round of games throughout Europe this weekend and then teams can move on to Champions League and Europa League commitments in the next few days.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: This is a fixture that has produced a boat-load of goals in recent seasons and recent form suggests we may see more of the same on Saturday.

My biggest concern is the early kick off after an international two weeks when some players will have played all over the world, but both teams should be set out to score goals, while neither has looked rock solid defensively over the last month or so.

Newcastle v Liverpool appeals to the neutrals, but the layers are also well aware of the history of the fixture and have made sure they have trimmed the odds on at least 3 goals being scored.

That was 1.80 earlier in the week, but has been trimmed to a best price of 1.73 at the time I am writing this. I am expecting that to shorten some more and while not the biggest price you will see this weekend, I do think we will see goals in this one as we usually do.


Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: There must have been a lot of Arsenal fans checking the websites on Tuesday evening when news broke that Mesut Ozil had limped off in Germany's win at Sweden, although it does seem like a precautionary substitution.

The German has made a big impact in his short time at the Emirates Stadium and his guile will be very important to unlock a Norwich City defence that can be a little stubborn at times.

Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances in their recent games and they should be able to match what Spurs managed against Norwich earlier this season. Even the improved performances from Norwich over their last couple of League games might not be enough for them to stay with a rampant Arsenal and I think Chris Hughton will see any point earned as a bonus.

I expect the home side to create enough chances to win this one by a couple of goals.


Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The one thing that hasn't changed in Jose Mourinho's approach since leaving Chelsea and returning to Stamford Bridge is the semi-cautious way he manages in games. That has been one of the main reasons their results have mainly been efficient at home in the League and he is always liable to send out a more defensive formation when taking the lead in a game.

I can't imagine he would approach this game in any other way with a big Champions League game in Germany just days away.

Cardiff City will come here with nothing to lose, but I am not sure they have enough creativity to score and that is why I am leaning towards backing Chelsea to win to nil.

Chelsea are still being asked to clear big handicaps on the Asian Handicap market, but I don't think they will particularly push on if they go 1-0 up and will look to perhaps hit Cardiff on the counter-attack. I can't back them to win by more than 2 goals, which you would need for the full payout, because they haven't scored a lot of goals so far this season and I will instead back on the cautious approach that Jose Mourinho generally applies.


Swansea v Sunderland Pick: Since winning the League Cup, Swansea won their first Premier League home game and have subsequently failed to win any of 8 in the League. They have had a tough start to the season with the top two both visiting the Liberty Stadium and a ruthless display from Manchester United, but Swansea have won 3 games at home in Europe.

There might be a mental block for the home side, but Sunderland have to be in a much worse play with a number of defeats in away games in the League.

Gus Poyet may not have time to have a reaction from his players in this one with a number being away on international duty and I don't know if he will see a reaction from them immediately.

With Sunderland conceding as many goals as they have been, I think Swansea can snap their recent run of games without a home win in the Premier League. I will back them to win on the Asian Handicap as Sunderland have been losing a fair few games by more than one goal and Swansea certainly have goals in the side although they need to improve defensively going forward.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: I have to say that both live Premier League games on Saturday could be entertaining ones for the neutrals to watch and I believe this game between West Ham United and Manchester City has the potential to be the best one of the day.

West Ham United are always tough to play in front of their own fans, but the fans are also demanding enough to want their side to get on the front foot. Sam Allardyce has ensured they get their wish more often than not and I have no doubt they will have a go against a Manchester City defence that has looked vulnerable at times, particularly away from home.

On the other hand, I have no reason to doubt Manuel Pellegrini will continue with his own attacking policy that he has used away from home. Pellegrini is aware of the talent he has at his disposal, but he is also smart enough to realise most of that talent is in attacking players so he is trying to use them to the best of his ability.

It would be a real surprise if we don't see goals in this game, although I do wonder if West Ham United can keep up with Manchester City if this does develop into a high-scoring game. With City scoring at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 away games so far, I do think the away side are the more likely winner, although it could come after an exciting game where there are at least 3 goals scored.

This just has the feel of a game where both teams will score, but I fancy Manchester City to break their away duck in the Premier League and come through.


Osasuna v Barcelona Pick: There is no doubt that Barcelona have looked a little vulnerable at the back at times this season in the absence of Carles Puyol and injuries to Javier Mascherano meaning a lot of changes in the back.

That will give Osasuna some hope that they can replicate the result of a couple of years ago when they beat Barcelona here, but I would temper those enthusiasms.

For all the issues Barcelona have had defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets in their 5 away wins this season in all competitions, while Osasuna have struggled for goals at home.

Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10 home games and 5 of those defeats came in games where they failed to score. With Barcelona earning clean sheets in 4 of 5 away from home, the Barcelona win to nil looks an appealing price at 2.30 in this game.


Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Pick: I am not a fan of the odds on quote for Atletico Madrid winning this game as Espanyol are no pushover, but you have to respect what Atletico have done in the first two months of the season.

Diego Simeone has the side playing good attacking football, but has balanced that with a tough defence, and they will certainly feel they can also reach 9 straight wins to open the League season.

Atletico have shown they are not afraid of playing anybody after earning a goalless draw in the Nou Camp and beating Real Madrid in their last two visits to the Bernebeau (once in extra time though). A win in Porto is not an easy task for any club in Europe and Atletico have scored a fair few goals away from home too.

I might not like the odds on quotes for Atletico to win this game, but they look a decent shout at slightly larger prices to score at least 2 goals here. Atletico have reached that total in 4 of 6 away games this season, only failing to hit against Barcelona and Real Madrid... In fact, take away the games against the top two sides in Spain and Atletico have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions.

Espanyol have conceded 2 goals in each of their last two home games and have also conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 9 home games going back to last season. At 1.92, I will back Atletico to become the latest side to hit that mark.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Swansea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.30 Coral (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)

October Update: 12-7-1, + 11.58 Units (26 Units Staked, + 44.54% Yield)

September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)