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Saturday, 5 October 2013

College Football Week 6 Picks 2013 (October 3-5)

The first five weeks of the College Football season have gone pretty well for the picks after a disappointing season last year. I did say that was down to a lot of backdoor covers hurting the picks in the first half of last season and while I am not quite on the pace to match a very successful 2011 season, I still am in a strong position to shown another winning year,

Last week it would have been a very good week if Fresno State didn't blow a 39 point lead in the final 20 minutes against a poor Hawaii team, but the Bulldogs will be glad to have left the island with another W tucked safely in their pockets.

The top teams in the nation all came through another week and we still have Alabama leading the way with the likes of Oregon, Stanford, Ohio State and Clemson all lining up behind them. Over the coming month, we will get a clearer picture of the teams that will be challenging for a place in the National Championship Game.

A couple of those schools have big road games this week, while unbeaten Washington will visit Stanford as Week 5 begins on Thursday night.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: I do like the way Bill O'Brien has kept the Penn State programme going the right way considering all of the upheaval over the last eighteen months here. They might not be Bowl eligible for the foreseeable future, but they still have one of the biggest home crowds in the nation and continue playing with pride.

It is that pride that should keep them focused ahead of the big game with Michigan, while there also seems to be a difference in talent level between the teams too.

Penn State have the better Defense and they are capable of making one or two stops that could prove to be the difference in this game, but they will still need Christian Hackenburg to avoid mistakes that may give the Hoosiers some life.

If the Freshman Quarter Back can do that, the Nittany Lions should have enough to overcome the Indiana Hoosiers. Penn State have a strong record against the spread as a favourite and should have enough to see off Indiana.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: It is never going to be easy to come to Knoxville and win a game, but Georgia look to have a little too much talent Offensively to be held down by Tennessee. I also think they are less likely to have their drives stalled with the Offense they have and that could be the key to the whole game.

The Bulldogs have had such a difficult start to the season, but they are winning games and that could bode well when it comes to the voters at the end of the season.

Georgia are focused on trying to win out which would get them back in the National Championship discussion. Tennessee should keep things close for a while, but I am expecting Justin Worley to just fall short in keeping up with the Bulldogs and Georgia should win this by 13 or 14 points.

The Volunteers are also a poor 1-7 against the spread as the home underdog in recent seasons, while Georgia are 5-3 against the spread as the road favourite.

Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange Pick: I know there are a fair few people looking at this as a potential 'trap' game for the Clemson Tigers, but I think they are fortunate to have this one between two 'easy' home games and I expect them to stay focused and remain unbeaten.

Clemson can run the ball with enough effectiveness to open the passing lanes for Tajh Boyd and the Quarter Back has been well protected so should be able to move the chains even against this tough Defense.

I am expecting the Tigers own Defense to make enough critical stops to help them over the top in this one and I do believe Clemson will do enough to win this by around 17 points, even on the road. Clemson are 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite over the last twelve months, although Syracuse love their position as a home underdog.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: This is another tough ACC Conference game that will come down to the fine margins, but it is one where I favour the unbeaten Miami Hurricanes to be a little too strong for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

It is going to be tough for Georgia Tech to recover from their disappointing loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies last week and Vad Lee may have another tough time moving the chains consistently in this one. While the Yellow Jackets are very effective running the spread option against most teams, the top teams in the ACC are well aware what to expect and the likes of Miami should be able to slow the running game down enough to stall drives.

Miami have also been more consistent finding the balance in their own Offense which should keep Georgia Tech on their toes and I like the Hurricanes to cover the 6 point spread in this one.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: It has been a long time since the North Carolina State Wolfpack have left Wake Forest with a win, but they have a real chance this season as they seem to have the edge on both sides of the ball.

NC State should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air, although it has to be said that the Wolfpack need to avoid mistakes and allow the Demon Deacons to turn the ball over.

That could be the best chance for Wake Forest to score points as they have struggled to run the ball, while their passing attack won't have anything to really scare the Wolfpack. Wake Forest's Offensive Line has struggled to protect the Quarter Back and they have struggled to pass the ball with accuracy which has been highlighted after failing to run the ball effectively.

My biggest concern is that North Carolina State have sucked in their position as a road favourite over the last two and a bit years, but they should have enough of an edge in this one to come through.

LSU Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: In any SEC game, getting almost a ten point head start looks a lot of points, but I think the LSU Tigers have a stronger Defense that should be able to create enough stalls in the Mississippi State Offense to earn the extra possessions to cover the spread.

I also believe that the LSU Offense will have their fair share of success against the Bulldogs Defense that did hold Oklahoma State to just 21 points earlier this season.

These games have a habit of getting close, but I like the Tigers chances of slowing down the Mississippi State running game and that may put Tyler Russell in a very unfortunate position.

Russell may have some time to make plays, but the LSU Secondary has been able to limit Quarter Backs, outside of Aaron Murray, to a point where they should be able to prevent long drives developing. All in all, I did like the Tigers by 10 after last weekend games so this spread is just low enough for me to take an interest.

Ole Miss Rebels @ Auburn Tigers Pick: After some of the big talk heading into the game with the Alabama Crimson Tide, the performance of the Ole Miss Rebels would have been a disappointment as they were shut out last week. Now it will be interesting to see how they recover to take on the Auburn Tigers who will be coming off a bye after their own disappointing loss to the LSU Tigers in their last game.

I do have the feeling that the Ole Miss Rebels are the more talented of the two teams and while both should have some good looking drives, it is the Rebels Offense that should find those with more consistency.

Auburn should find a way to get closer to the Quarter Back when it comes to the pass rush, but Ole Miss should be able to run the ball with more holes opening up and their passing attack should have more chances to keep the chains moving. I definitely see signs of improvement in the Auburn team after a couple of tough seasons since winning the National Championship, but they still have some work to do and I think their youthful looking team will improve from the experience of the season.

It will be close for a while as both teams should be able to score, but I am expecting Ole Miss to create a turnover or stall a drive in the fourth quarter that helps them cover the spread.

Arizona State Sun Devils v Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: This game is taking place on a neutral field, but the two teams are coming into the game from very differing positions of confidence and I like the Arizona State Sun Devils to come out on top.

The edge in this one is with the Arizona State passing Offense and I am not convinced that Tommy Rees is capable of keeping Notre Dame close enough in this one, especially as the Fighting Irish have struggled to create turnovers this season.

While the game is close, Notre Dame will be able to run the ball against the Sun Devils Defense, but they could be forced to rely on the Rees arm as the game develops and that should give Arizona State the chance to send their pass rush after the Quarter Back.

Rees has been guilty of making some mistakes too and Arizona State have earned a few Interceptions and yet another one could help them along to a 7-10 point win.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 10.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
North Carolina State Wolfpack - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ole Miss Rebels - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 42-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 35-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 26-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 14-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)

Season 201323-15-1, + 6.64 Units (39 Units Staked, + 17.03% Yield)

Season 201254-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 201163-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

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