Week 6 Thoughts
New England's Super Bowl hopes hit by Defensive injuries: I still don't know how New England won their last game to move to 5-1, but injuries are beginning to pile up on the Defensive side of the ball which may hit their hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl.
Losing Vince Wilfork was always going to be tough, but Jared Mayo looks set to miss the rest of the season too and Aqib Talib could be missing a few games and that will put added pressure on Tom Brady and this Offense to score enough points to help the Patriots keep winning games.
Rob Gronkowski's return to the Offense will help on that front, but it looks a big ask for New England and there may just be room for someone to take advantage in the AFC East, for example the Miami Dolphins, if they can use the bye week to fix their Offensive Line problems.
Jacksonville Jaguars have to stick with Chad Henne at Quarter Back: I know Jacksonville would very much love to lock down the Number 1 pick in the Draft and playing Blaine Gabbert to that end is probably the right move, but the fans deserve to see Chad Henne at Quarter Back for the rest of the season.
I am not the biggest fan of Henne, but he is far more serviceable than Gabbert and has a decent connection with Justin Blackmon to at least make the Jaguars somewhat competitive for the rest of the season.
Jacksonville are unlikely to win a lot of games with the lack of protection on their Offensive Line and the Defense being as bad as it is, but Henne can sling the ball around and can help keep the fans a little interested. Blaine Gabbert doesn't offer too much room for optimism so Henne has to be the call for the rest of the season.
On another note, I don't think the Jaguars will have too many better chances to win a game this season than the one with San Diego this weekend- the Chargers are in a difficult spot coming off a big win on Monday Night Football and now travelling across the country for an early start on Sunday against a team they will be expected to destroy.
Channel 4 needs new researchers: Not everyone reading this would have seen the absolutely stunningly bad poll that Channel 4 ran before the Redskins-Cowboys game when they were genuinely asking whether Robert Griffin III should be traded by Washington?
What??? Who decided this was even close to being a relevant question or one that needed debate? Mike Carlson was visibly embarrassed, although I am not sure whether that was down to the question or because his co-host, Nat Coombs, was trying to argue the 'yes' side of the coin.
What??? Who decided this was even close to being a relevant question or one that needed debate? Mike Carlson was visibly embarrassed, although I am not sure whether that was down to the question or because his co-host, Nat Coombs, was trying to argue the 'yes' side of the coin.
It was so bad that it is being openly mocked by a major sports site in the United States (CBS Sports) and I think the need for better presenters and researchers is clear from the horrible poll set.
Jim Irsay poking the bear that is Peyton Manning: We all knew it was a big week when Peyton Manning was heading back to Indianapolis for the first time to take on the Colts, but Jim Irsay has raised the tension ahead of what should have been a huge welcome for Manning.
It is absolutely scandalous that Irsay suggests Manning's time in Indianapolis was not as good as it should have been considering they lost so many Play Off games and 'only' won one Super Bowl and the owner of the Colts is being roundly criticised.
I really can't understand why Irsay would say such things, even if he has suggested his comments have been taken out of context, unless he is trying to pile the pressure on Peyton ahead of this game.
Either way, Sunday has become 'must watch' TV if it wasn't already.
Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (6-0): They weren't at their best against Jacksonville, but remain favourites to win the AFC.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0): Kansas City have been a little fortunate in the early going, but they have every chance of reaching their game with Denver at 9-0 and the Defense is legit.
3) Seattle Seahawks (5-1): Not a great performance from the Seahawks and now have a big road game at Arizona on a short week.
4) New England Patriots (5-1): I can't wait to see how this Defense holds up without three of their best players and whether Tom Brady can put up enough points to keep winning games.
5) New Orleans Saints (5-1): New Orleans should have remained unbeaten last weekend barring some poor calls in the final three minutes.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6): Most competitive performance of the season came in Week 6 against Denver and may not get a better chance to win a game than this weekend against San Diego.
31) New York Giants (0-6): It has been a terrible season for the Giants and nothing has been going right for them.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5): Tampa Bay have had chances to win four of their five games but keep shooting themselves in the foot.
29) Minnesota Vikings (1-4): Time for the Josh Freeman experiment to begin in Minnesota.
28) Washington Redskins (1-4): Robert Griffin III looked a little better this week, but Washington lost a big game to Dallas although not too far from competing in the NFC East.
Week 7 Picks
It was a very tough week for the picks, but I could not have asked for more bad luck than what I encountered during the course of Sunday.
A couple of the picks were just terrible from start to finish, notably picking Houston to win and cover and Minnesota to do the same (both blown out and never looked close to winning, let alone covering).
However, I could have legitimate complaints about almost all the other picks that fell down the crapper:
Green Bay - 2.5 Points: So Green Bay are up by 9 points with a little under 4 minutes left and they sack Joe Flacco which has helped Baltimore into a 4th and 21.
Somehow the Packers allow him to complete that pass for SIXTY-THREE yards and score a Touchdown which helped them get within 2... They then can't stop Green Bay from running the clock out from within the Baltimore 20 as Eddie Lacy picks up ten yards with three runs and this was one ridiculous non-cover for the Packers.
Cincinnati - 5.5 Points: The Bengals were up 14 with ten minutes left and can't get anything going nor stop Buffalo from forcing overtime.
Oakland + 8 Points: This was a close game throughout, but a couple of breaks went against Oakland- first they turned the ball over twice in their own half, while Kansas City fumbled inside the Oakland red zone but the ball trickled out of bounds so the Chiefs kept possession of the ball.
It may have looked a 17 point win, but the Chiefs barely did enough on Offense to think they should have won this by more than a Touchdown.
New Orleans + 1.5 Points: The Saints had a four point lead and the ball with under two minutes to go, yet they allow Tom Brady to move right up the field without a time out and score the winning Touchdown... This game looked so over that the majority of fans had left the stadium and I am still shaking my head that the Patriots won that game.
Washington + 5.5 Points: Kai Forbath misses a Field Goal that would have made this a two point game, Washington outgained Dallas and the difference became two huge returns for the Cowboys and a fumble from RG3 inside his 10 yard line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Atlanta Falcons had a Super Bowl appearance in mind this season, but injuries have ravaged a side that is 1-4 as they come out of their bye and they know a loss here would effectively end their chances.
A once powerful Offense will be missing Roddy White and Julio Jones, although the bye would have allowed Matt Ryan to get on the same page as the likely replacements like Harry Douglas. Steven Jackson may miss another game at Running Back, but Tony Gonzalez is still in the line up and Atlanta should be able to move the ball through the air with the way Tampa Bay have defended the pass.
It will all be on Ryan though as the Buccaneers have been tough to run against, while the Falcons Defense has to step up.
They have struggled to get pressure and need to find a way to at least rattle rookie Mike Glennon in his first road start in the pro ranks. Glennon found a rapport with Vincent Jackson last week and I can see the pair hooking up for big gains in this one if the Falcons struggle up front as they did against the New York Jets in Week 5.
Doug Martin may also find a little more running room, but it is going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win here considering how often they have shot themselves in the foot this season. They should have won at least 2 of their games so far, but bonehead decisions or poor mistakes have cost them and I think the Falcons off a bye will win this game despite the injuries.
Atlanta did lose at home to Tampa Bay last season, but that was after they had already secured the Number 1 seed in the NFC and they had won 4 in a row before that. The Falcons are also 4-2 against the spread off their bye.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: It seems that Rob Gronkowski is ready to return for the New England Patriots and Tom Brady will be very happy to have his top target back in the line up although we may not see the best of their chemistry until a couple more games are played.
This is not an easy game for the Patriots as the New York Jets have the kind of Defense that can certainly make life tough for Brady. They get a ton of pressure up front through the likes of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and the Patriots Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Brady.
Rex Ryan will certainly try to flummox Brady in the pocket by sending pressure from different angles, while the Jets should do a better job containing Stevan Ridley than the New Orleans Saints did last week. New York only allow 3 yards per carry, while the pass Defense will be helped if the Patriot Receivers keep dropping the ball.
Geno Smith had another bad week last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and continues to play erratically which is expected of a rookie. He was troubled by Bill Belichick in Week 2 as he threw Interceptions in the critical fourth quarter and he has to give his Defense more points to defend while also limiting mistakes and forcing the Patriots to have extended drives to score points.
Smith will be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for New England with Aqib Talib expected to miss out along with Vince Wilfork and Jared Mayo. That should keep the pocket a little cleaner for Smith, while the Receivers may have more chance to find themselves open without Talib covering them as he has been exceptional all season.
New Orleans showed it is easier to run the ball against the Patriots now the big body of Wilfork is out and the Jets should at least keep this close.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and they will be hoping they have fixed some of the issues on the Offensive Line if they are to reach some of the expectations that a 3-0 run to start the season will raise.
The Dolphins are in line to set a season record for number of sacks allowed and the likes of Mario Williams will be licking his lips with anticipation to get after Ryan Tannehill in this one. Buffalo should get plenty of players in the backfield and it will be tough for the Quarter Back to find time to find Mike Wallace deep.
Buffalo's Secondary have struggled against the pass, but they are getting healthier on that front while Miami have struggled to run the ball all season and are not expected to rip big chunks on the ground either.
It will be tough for Miami to move the chains consistently, but the same could be said for Buffalo despite Thaddeus Lewis making his second start after suffering an injury last week. Lewis will have Stevie Johnson back to give him another Receiving threat, but he will need his Offensive Line to play better than they have.
Like when Miami have the ball, Buffalo will also struggle to protect the Quarter Back against this fierce Miami pass rush now that Cameron Wake is back from a three week absence. The Dolphins have given up big numbers through the air, but they have played some decent Quarter Backs in that time, although Thad Lewis will also lean on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to get some yards on the ground.
I have never really liked Miami in a position as a favourite, and this looks a lot of points to give up in a game where the Offense could again struggle for consistency without decent O-Line play.
St Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I must need my head checked for liking the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are the big favourites to beat the St Louis Rams, but that is the situation I find myself in this week.
The Panthers and the Rams are both coming in to this game off the back of big wins on the road last week, but it is a tough spot for St Louis in the second of back to back road games. However, that can be nullified by the fact that Carolina have a Division game to play against Tampa Bay in just four days time.
Zac Stacy did give St Louis a semblance of a rushing attack last week against Houston, but he faces another tough battle this week against a Panthers Defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Bradford is going to have carry the Rams on his back again this week, but he has been looking better the last couple of weeks after that terrible game against San Francisco in Week 4.
Bradford will be able to have success passing against Carolina, but the Panthers get a lot of pressure up front an the likes of Greg Hardy will be able to break through this Offensive Line to keep Bradford scrambling.
On the other side of the ball, I can't guess which Cam Newton is going to turn up this week- if he goes back to rushing the ball and giving Defenses something else to worry about, Carolina should have success moving the ball on the ground against a St Louis team that have been gashed by a couple of different teams by running the ball this season.
That would open things up in the Secondary for Newton to exploit, although the Quarter Back has been erratic at times this season. That would normally open things up for the Panthers to win this game by at least ten points, although Carolina can't always been trusted.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: It might be a non-Conference game for the San Francisco 49ers, but they will look to carry their momentum from the last three weeks forward and keep the pressure on the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the NFC West.
It does seem a good time for them to face the Tennessee Titans with Jake Locker getting healthier but unlikely to be risked in this game as he recovers from injury. Tennessee will be heading into a bye week following this game so it is very likely that they give Locker an extra week to get healthy.
That means the pressure is on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the plays to win the game and I don't trust he will be able to get the job done. Fitzpatrick will engineer a couple of nice drives during the game, but he is also liable to throwing a pick or two that will see his team fall from positions of strength.
I will be expecting San Francisco to keep pounding the ball and then look for Colin Kaepernick to make a couple of big plays to either Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis to score Touchdowns.
One thing that does concern me is the poor record against the spread teams have the week before they are due to visit London for the International Series game and that is the position San Francisco find themselves in this week. However, the spread has come down to a level where I like the 49ers to force a turnover or two from Fitzpatrick and cover the spread.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: This is a really important game for the Kansas City Chiefs to show they are very capable in the AFC and they will know the importance of knocking off a potential Wild Card rival later on in the year.
Both Defensive units will feel they are the stronger units playing in this game, but Kansas City have the experienced Quarter Back and that could make a big difference.
Smith should feel comfortable in his surroundings and will be happy to use the short passes to try and move the ball up the field, while also avoiding the mistakes to give his Defense the chance to do their thing.
On the other hand, Case Keenum is making his first professional start in a very tough atmosphere at Arrowhead and Houston could find themselves in a tough spot if they fall into a big hole as they did last week.
The rookie will need his established Running Backs to keep Houston in manageable third down situations, but Kansas City's Defense will be looking to introduce him to the NFL when they get a chance. It's a tough spot for Houston who will go into their bye after this one and I can't see them staying within the number in this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been a strong home favourite to back in the last few years and I do think they have a real chance of knocking off the Cleveland Browns by double digits.
The biggest concern for the Packers has to be their recent willingness to accept Field Goals over Touchdowns as drives have become bogged down when they get close to the opposition end zone.
Still, even Field Goals may be enough to beat the Cleveland Browns as they have struggled for consistency with Brandon Weeden at the Quarter Back position and he has been close to making mistakes that could see Cleveland seriously punished by somebody.
Cleveland are unlikely to establish a ground game meaning Weeden has to force the throws and the Packers Defense may just improve their Interception statistics in this game.
This might not be a Conference game for the Packers and they may have a big game at Minnesota next up on deck, but I still like Green Bay to win this one and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This was always going to be Peyton Manning's day as the fans were going to welcome him back with open arms and at first it looked like perhaps this was too many points to be laying with the home team.
However, Jim Irsay's comments which almost wiped out the impact Manning had for the Indianapolis Colts has surprised many people and must have hurt Peyton. I have seen so often in the NFL a player really use a perceived slight as a real motivation to play his best game and Manning has the personnel at his disposal to punish Irsay.
He will feel a lot for the Indianapolis fans, but Peyton will want to show that the Colts were wrong to let him go two years ago, even if they did pick up Andrew Luck.
I think Luck will have his successes too, but he doesn't have the same reliable options as Peyton, not outside of Reggie Wayne anyway. He was killed by drops last Monday against San Diego and it will be tough for him to keep up with Manning if Luck has to settle for Field Goals.
The added motivation from Irsay's comments should motivate Peyton Manning and I like Denver to win this one and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: I must need my head testing a little bit, but I like the New York Giants to win this game and cover the spread although this has the potential of being a high-scoring game.
The Giants have had a few extra days to prepare for the game and are also taking on a team that will be starting Josh Freeman for the first time. It may take Freeman a little time to really get on the same page as his Receivers and that could be a problem if the Giants can contain Adrian Peterson to some level.
Eli Manning may just get a little more time in this game if Brandon Jacobs continue pounding the ball as effectively as he did last week, while Minnesota's Secondary have lost their best player in Harrison Smith.
The Vikings have been torched at times through the air and despite the struggles early in the season, Eli Manning does have a plethora of talented Receivers that should win their battles against the Defense.
Both Quarter Backs can be guilty of throwing Interceptions, but I just feel the Giants are going to have more sustained success and have more potential for hitting the big play. That may be enough to record a win by a Touchdown in this one.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 3.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Atlanta Falcons had a Super Bowl appearance in mind this season, but injuries have ravaged a side that is 1-4 as they come out of their bye and they know a loss here would effectively end their chances.
A once powerful Offense will be missing Roddy White and Julio Jones, although the bye would have allowed Matt Ryan to get on the same page as the likely replacements like Harry Douglas. Steven Jackson may miss another game at Running Back, but Tony Gonzalez is still in the line up and Atlanta should be able to move the ball through the air with the way Tampa Bay have defended the pass.
It will all be on Ryan though as the Buccaneers have been tough to run against, while the Falcons Defense has to step up.
They have struggled to get pressure and need to find a way to at least rattle rookie Mike Glennon in his first road start in the pro ranks. Glennon found a rapport with Vincent Jackson last week and I can see the pair hooking up for big gains in this one if the Falcons struggle up front as they did against the New York Jets in Week 5.
Doug Martin may also find a little more running room, but it is going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win here considering how often they have shot themselves in the foot this season. They should have won at least 2 of their games so far, but bonehead decisions or poor mistakes have cost them and I think the Falcons off a bye will win this game despite the injuries.
Atlanta did lose at home to Tampa Bay last season, but that was after they had already secured the Number 1 seed in the NFC and they had won 4 in a row before that. The Falcons are also 4-2 against the spread off their bye.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: It seems that Rob Gronkowski is ready to return for the New England Patriots and Tom Brady will be very happy to have his top target back in the line up although we may not see the best of their chemistry until a couple more games are played.
This is not an easy game for the Patriots as the New York Jets have the kind of Defense that can certainly make life tough for Brady. They get a ton of pressure up front through the likes of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and the Patriots Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Brady.
Rex Ryan will certainly try to flummox Brady in the pocket by sending pressure from different angles, while the Jets should do a better job containing Stevan Ridley than the New Orleans Saints did last week. New York only allow 3 yards per carry, while the pass Defense will be helped if the Patriot Receivers keep dropping the ball.
Geno Smith had another bad week last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and continues to play erratically which is expected of a rookie. He was troubled by Bill Belichick in Week 2 as he threw Interceptions in the critical fourth quarter and he has to give his Defense more points to defend while also limiting mistakes and forcing the Patriots to have extended drives to score points.
Smith will be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for New England with Aqib Talib expected to miss out along with Vince Wilfork and Jared Mayo. That should keep the pocket a little cleaner for Smith, while the Receivers may have more chance to find themselves open without Talib covering them as he has been exceptional all season.
New Orleans showed it is easier to run the ball against the Patriots now the big body of Wilfork is out and the Jets should at least keep this close.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and they will be hoping they have fixed some of the issues on the Offensive Line if they are to reach some of the expectations that a 3-0 run to start the season will raise.
The Dolphins are in line to set a season record for number of sacks allowed and the likes of Mario Williams will be licking his lips with anticipation to get after Ryan Tannehill in this one. Buffalo should get plenty of players in the backfield and it will be tough for the Quarter Back to find time to find Mike Wallace deep.
Buffalo's Secondary have struggled against the pass, but they are getting healthier on that front while Miami have struggled to run the ball all season and are not expected to rip big chunks on the ground either.
It will be tough for Miami to move the chains consistently, but the same could be said for Buffalo despite Thaddeus Lewis making his second start after suffering an injury last week. Lewis will have Stevie Johnson back to give him another Receiving threat, but he will need his Offensive Line to play better than they have.
Like when Miami have the ball, Buffalo will also struggle to protect the Quarter Back against this fierce Miami pass rush now that Cameron Wake is back from a three week absence. The Dolphins have given up big numbers through the air, but they have played some decent Quarter Backs in that time, although Thad Lewis will also lean on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to get some yards on the ground.
I have never really liked Miami in a position as a favourite, and this looks a lot of points to give up in a game where the Offense could again struggle for consistency without decent O-Line play.
St Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I must need my head checked for liking the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are the big favourites to beat the St Louis Rams, but that is the situation I find myself in this week.
The Panthers and the Rams are both coming in to this game off the back of big wins on the road last week, but it is a tough spot for St Louis in the second of back to back road games. However, that can be nullified by the fact that Carolina have a Division game to play against Tampa Bay in just four days time.
Zac Stacy did give St Louis a semblance of a rushing attack last week against Houston, but he faces another tough battle this week against a Panthers Defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Bradford is going to have carry the Rams on his back again this week, but he has been looking better the last couple of weeks after that terrible game against San Francisco in Week 4.
Bradford will be able to have success passing against Carolina, but the Panthers get a lot of pressure up front an the likes of Greg Hardy will be able to break through this Offensive Line to keep Bradford scrambling.
On the other side of the ball, I can't guess which Cam Newton is going to turn up this week- if he goes back to rushing the ball and giving Defenses something else to worry about, Carolina should have success moving the ball on the ground against a St Louis team that have been gashed by a couple of different teams by running the ball this season.
That would open things up in the Secondary for Newton to exploit, although the Quarter Back has been erratic at times this season. That would normally open things up for the Panthers to win this game by at least ten points, although Carolina can't always been trusted.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: It might be a non-Conference game for the San Francisco 49ers, but they will look to carry their momentum from the last three weeks forward and keep the pressure on the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the NFC West.
It does seem a good time for them to face the Tennessee Titans with Jake Locker getting healthier but unlikely to be risked in this game as he recovers from injury. Tennessee will be heading into a bye week following this game so it is very likely that they give Locker an extra week to get healthy.
That means the pressure is on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the plays to win the game and I don't trust he will be able to get the job done. Fitzpatrick will engineer a couple of nice drives during the game, but he is also liable to throwing a pick or two that will see his team fall from positions of strength.
I will be expecting San Francisco to keep pounding the ball and then look for Colin Kaepernick to make a couple of big plays to either Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis to score Touchdowns.
One thing that does concern me is the poor record against the spread teams have the week before they are due to visit London for the International Series game and that is the position San Francisco find themselves in this week. However, the spread has come down to a level where I like the 49ers to force a turnover or two from Fitzpatrick and cover the spread.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: This is a really important game for the Kansas City Chiefs to show they are very capable in the AFC and they will know the importance of knocking off a potential Wild Card rival later on in the year.
Both Defensive units will feel they are the stronger units playing in this game, but Kansas City have the experienced Quarter Back and that could make a big difference.
Smith should feel comfortable in his surroundings and will be happy to use the short passes to try and move the ball up the field, while also avoiding the mistakes to give his Defense the chance to do their thing.
On the other hand, Case Keenum is making his first professional start in a very tough atmosphere at Arrowhead and Houston could find themselves in a tough spot if they fall into a big hole as they did last week.
The rookie will need his established Running Backs to keep Houston in manageable third down situations, but Kansas City's Defense will be looking to introduce him to the NFL when they get a chance. It's a tough spot for Houston who will go into their bye after this one and I can't see them staying within the number in this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been a strong home favourite to back in the last few years and I do think they have a real chance of knocking off the Cleveland Browns by double digits.
The biggest concern for the Packers has to be their recent willingness to accept Field Goals over Touchdowns as drives have become bogged down when they get close to the opposition end zone.
Still, even Field Goals may be enough to beat the Cleveland Browns as they have struggled for consistency with Brandon Weeden at the Quarter Back position and he has been close to making mistakes that could see Cleveland seriously punished by somebody.
Cleveland are unlikely to establish a ground game meaning Weeden has to force the throws and the Packers Defense may just improve their Interception statistics in this game.
This might not be a Conference game for the Packers and they may have a big game at Minnesota next up on deck, but I still like Green Bay to win this one and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This was always going to be Peyton Manning's day as the fans were going to welcome him back with open arms and at first it looked like perhaps this was too many points to be laying with the home team.
However, Jim Irsay's comments which almost wiped out the impact Manning had for the Indianapolis Colts has surprised many people and must have hurt Peyton. I have seen so often in the NFL a player really use a perceived slight as a real motivation to play his best game and Manning has the personnel at his disposal to punish Irsay.
He will feel a lot for the Indianapolis fans, but Peyton will want to show that the Colts were wrong to let him go two years ago, even if they did pick up Andrew Luck.
I think Luck will have his successes too, but he doesn't have the same reliable options as Peyton, not outside of Reggie Wayne anyway. He was killed by drops last Monday against San Diego and it will be tough for him to keep up with Manning if Luck has to settle for Field Goals.
The added motivation from Irsay's comments should motivate Peyton Manning and I like Denver to win this one and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: I must need my head testing a little bit, but I like the New York Giants to win this game and cover the spread although this has the potential of being a high-scoring game.
The Giants have had a few extra days to prepare for the game and are also taking on a team that will be starting Josh Freeman for the first time. It may take Freeman a little time to really get on the same page as his Receivers and that could be a problem if the Giants can contain Adrian Peterson to some level.
Eli Manning may just get a little more time in this game if Brandon Jacobs continue pounding the ball as effectively as he did last week, while Minnesota's Secondary have lost their best player in Harrison Smith.
The Vikings have been torched at times through the air and despite the struggles early in the season, Eli Manning does have a plethora of talented Receivers that should win their battles against the Defense.
Both Quarter Backs can be guilty of throwing Interceptions, but I just feel the Giants are going to have more sustained success and have more potential for hitting the big play. That may be enough to record a win by a Touchdown in this one.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 3.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 27-23-1, + 3.33 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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