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Tuesday 1 October 2013

Midweek Football Picks 2013 (October 1-3)

There is no doubt that this weekend was one of the stranger ones that I have seen so far this season, while the Premier League table has a largely unfamiliar feel about it.

Both Merseyside clubs being above both Manchester clubs is one thing, but I don't think too many people would have tipped three London clubs to be leading the way  heading into the second international break of the new season.

It is a strange looking League, but it won't take a real shape until the 10th game is in the books although some teams will be beginning to get a little nervy as to how they have begun (Fulham a real example of that).


For now, those teams in European competition can forget their domestic issues and try and put themselves in a decent position in their Groups as we play the second round of games.

Most of the English sides will be comfortable with the starts made but Arsenal and Chelsea have important games in the Champions League and a defeat would leave both of them in a difficult position.


Borussia Dortmund v Marseille Pick: Borussia Dortmund may be without their influential manager for this game, but the side have made a very strong start to their home campaign and bring in a strong record from the Champions League.

They do look a little too good for Marseille and I am expecting them to get the three points from the game and put themselves back in the mix for a place in the last 16.

Home games are very important at this stage of the Champions League as this is where teams pick up the majority of the 10 points they will likely need to move through to the last 16. Dortmund blew a 2-0 lead the last time they hosted Marseille, but they are more experienced now and I expect them to win this by a couple of goals at least.


Basel v Schalke Pick: Both managers met at a recent forum ran by UEFA and both have admitted that they are well aware of what the other is going to try and do in this game as they shared notes on tactics before the draw for the Champions League was revealed.

I do think both Basel and Schalke would look at a point as a success considering their opening game wins, but both will also expect an improvement from Chelsea and know a win tonight will give them a big advantage in the Group.

Basel and Schalke are most comfortable when they get forward and look to score goals and I can imagine both teams scoring at least once in this game. As I said, I don't expect either to just settle for a point as they can will still feel the other provides the biggest threat to going through to the last 16 and I am expecting at least 3 goals scored in this game.


Juventus v Galatasaray Pick: There have been some changes at Galatasaray over the last few days and it will take Roberto Mancini a little bit of time to get to grips with the talent he has and have them playing in the fashion he is looking for.

The Italian also has a poor record in the Champions League which contributed to his downfall as manager at both Inter Milan and Manchester City in the past and it is a big ask for him to put together a game plan to get a result in Juventus just two days after being employed as manager.

Juventus have been strong at home and will be desperate to put three points in the bank ahead of the games against Real Madrid. They create a lot of chances in front of their own fans and I can see Juventus being able to win this one by a couple of goals as long as they take the opportunities that come their way.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Manchester United Pick: In a normal season, the quotes on a Manchester United away win would be tough to ignore, but this has been far from a normal season so far and I don't think it is possible to back the away side at such a difficult place to play.

There is no doubt that Shakhtar Donetsk will be confident of their chances of getting a result in this game having beaten Chelsea and coming within three minutes of beating Borussia Dortmund here last season.

Shakhtar have lost some key personnel since that time, but they still look to drive forward and score goals and this is going to cause problems for a Manchester United defence that has looked all over the place in their last two League games.

However, United do also pose a threat going forward, despite the lack of goals from open play in the Premier League, and the return of Robin Van Persie is very important for them.

Over the last few years, Shakhtar have hosted five English teams in Europe and scored at least 2 goals in four of those games. The over 2.5 goals has been priced at just below evens and that is my pick for the game.


Paris Saint-Germain v Benfica Pick: There are some doubts as to how Benfica are going to approach this game as a point will leave them in a strong position in the section, but Jorge Jesus has been very positive in his press conference and indicated that he will want his side to play their usual, attacking game.

Paris Saint-Germain do look the best team in the Group, but they have been a little hit and miss at home in recent weeks, while they have drawn their last 2 Champions League games here.

However, Paris Saint-Germain have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their 5 games in this competition last season and I would not be surprised if they failed to keep a clean sheet having had 3 in their last 8 at home and potentially missing key defenders.

Backing the home team does look the most likely result, but I will also back that we see at least 3 goals shared between the teams at a decent price.


Manchester City v Bayern Munich Pick: It is strange to see Manchester City as an underdog when playing in front of their own fans, but that is the case when the European Champions come to town.

I can't help but feel the value is on the home team in this one as they do have goals in the side and will be able to get at Bayern Munich. My doubts come from the fact that the away side should also pose problems for a defence that hasn't looked that dominant away from home, although much stronger at the Etihad Stadium.


Both teams have got off to winning starts in the Group and both look head and shoulders better than what CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzen will bring to the table so the games between the two may separate who wins the Group and who has a tough game to come in the last 16.

This won't be an intimidating venue for the Bayern Munich players who have won consecutive away games at Arsenal, Juventus and Barcelona in the Champions League, but they also liable to throwing in a dud performance as they did in defeats at BATE Borisov and Basel over the last couple of seasons and Bayern Munich also lost a dead-rubber here.

I can't imagine this being anything but an entertaining game, although I won't be watching personally, but it is one where a small interest is warranted on the home team.


Anzhi Makhachkala v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Europa League is not always a competition that teams take seriously, but Tottenham Hotspur certainly have a large enough squad to make changes and still win this game against a club that is no longer the name in Europe they have been.

It is not the history of Anzhi Makhachkala that is overpowering this current squad, but the fact that the financial backer has pulled out his money and that has forced a team that paid a lot of money for some top talent in Europe had to go through a firesale.

They are now battling against relegation rather than for a place in the Champions League and I think this competition will be seen as a distraction to that end. Anzhi failed to score against Sheriff and are now playing a team that has conceded just 1 goal in their 5 away games in all competition this season.

Spurs should be good enough to come away with another clean sheet and I think they will find a goal from somewhere to win the game.


Swansea v St Gallen Pick: Swansea may not have won any of their last 8 Premier League games at the Liberty Stadium, but they have won both Europa League games they have played here and I am expecting them to make it a hat-trick in this one.

I thought the Group would give Swansea some problems, but a 0-3 win at Valencia gives them a great platform from which to reach the last 32 as long as they can underline that win with another in this game.

St Gallen can't be under-estimated as they are unbeaten this season and have an impressive 2-4 win at Spartak Moscow under their belts and that confidence will make them tough to see off. However, Swansea have a lot of European talent that seem to be happy playing in this tournament and I think they will have enough to see off St Gallen and leave the team in a strong position going forward.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Basel-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
PSG to Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored in Match @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.45 Coral (1 Unit)
Swansea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

September Update13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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