Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 12th)

It has to be considered a disappointing day when the picks go 1-2, but I am not quite sure how Novak Djokovic didn't find a couple of breaks of serve in the final set against Gael Monfils who looked out on his feet when I saw the match this evening.

It's not like he didn't have his chances with break points and chances at 0-30, but Novak didn't return as well as he can, while the first set was lost thanks to some poor serving.

However, we are still on for the Final that everyone is looking forward to between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although both will need to come through tough Semi Final matches on Saturday.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo Wilfried-Tsonga: Novak Djokovic didn't serve well in the first set and could have returned better at points yesterday, but I expect a better performance from him against an opponent he has dominated in his most recent matches against him.

Djokovic has the tools to cancel out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's big game and the Frenchman can be guilty of losing his way mentally when he has come up against Djokovic in their recent matches. The shelling he took at the Indian Wells tournament earlier this season looks an exception, but there have been a number of 6-2 or better sets in favour of Djokovic in the last 6 matches between the players.

The courts in Shanghai will help Tsonga get the most out of his big forehand and heavy serve, but the backhand is far too hit and miss to challenge Djokovic and that means Tsonga has to dictate the points from start to finish if he is to hide his weakness from the match.

Tsonga's return of serve can also be below average at times and I think he may find Djokovic too good and I expect the Serb to come through 76, 62.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It was an impressive win for Juan Martin Del Potro over Nicolas Almagro yesterday and the Argentine is clearly in good form having won in Tokyo last week.

The win also almost guaranteed Del Potro a place at the World Tour Finals next month, but he may find it tough to back up his win against Rafael Nadal in this one. I still don't believe that Del Potro is at full health following his illness earlier this week and that should give Nadal a real edge in this match.

Del Potro's big serve will give him the chance to set up points in this match, although he has to be wary with the way Nadal has been playing and the manner in which he is crushing his own forehand. That has shown up on the quicker courts and there is no player in better form that Nadal at the moment.

Much like the first Semi Final, I can see the first set ending in a tie-break but won by the favourite and that may see the opponent lose their belief a touch and allow the favourite to pull away. Rafael Nadal has been looking after his own serve this week and I think he will prove to be a little too good for a slightly under par Del Potro and come through 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-8, + 3.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 11.69% Yield)