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Thursday, 3 October 2013

NFL Week 5 Picks 2013 (October 3-7)

It was a pretty good week last time out as the picks got the luck that deserted them in Week 3 and that has helped the season total improve markedly. I'll go back to that later on, but first I will move on to my Week 4 thoughts.


Week 4 Thoughts
Tampa Bay's treatment of Josh Freeman is disgraceful: Look, I'll be the first to say that I am not convinced about Josh Freeman as a starting Quarter Back in the NFL because he has regressed ever since his rookie season.

Therefore, I could understand a desperate Head Coach making the move from Freeman and replacing his as starter, especially considering the Buccaneers are 0-3 for the season at that point and have lost 8 of their last 9 games.

It didn't help this weekend as the Buccaneers lost another game, but the bigger disgrace is the 'leak' of information regarding Josh Freeman's participation in a drug programme set up by the NFL. From the initial reports, it seemed Freeman had not been up to any good, but it turns out that he takes medication and just took part to ensure he isn't in breach of any issues with the League.

Disgraceful treatment was then furthered as they forced Freeman to watch Sunday's game from a box rather than on the sidelines as is the norm and now Tampa Bay are ringing all other 31 teams in the League looking to trade Freeman away as his relationship with the team has irreversibly broken down.

Greg Schiano denied any involvement with the 'leak' or knowing where it came from, but he should begin to worry about his own position as Head Coach with rumours suggesting he will be the next person shipped out.


Matt Schaub's struggles in Houston: I know a lot of people have always been down when it comes to Matt Schaub, but I always thought he was a serviceable starting Quarter Back that could help the Houston Texans make it to the Play Offs.

That has proved not to be the case, and also doesn't look likely in the future as another mistake from the Quarter Back was taken back to the house for a Defensive Touchdown. The fans are beginning to get frustrated with the play of the Quarter Back, but there are other issues in Houston, for example the lack of a strong running game that they have been associated with over recent years.

Even the Defense is struggling as the points per game allowed has increased from last year and there are other issues rather than the Quarter Back that need to be addressed right now.

Both Indianapolis and Tennessee look capable of pushing Houston in the AFC South this season, a Division many would have tipped the Texans to win, and it makes the game at San Francisco this week all the more important for them.


Jake Locker's injury could slow down a possible run to the Play Offs for Tennessee: While I did say Tennessee could be one of the problem teams for Houston to deal with, the injury to their starting Quarter Back could really put them in a tough spot in the next few weeks.

I wasn't convinced about Jake Locker at the start of the season, but he has played pretty well so far and I think he looked like he was getting things behind Center. His absence will hurt Tennessee who will play Kansas City (4-0), Seattle (4-0) and San Francisco (2-2) in the next three weeks ahead of their bye and Locker isn't expected back until possibly Week 9.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been described as one of the best back-ups in the NFL, but I also know him as the player that can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory after watching him at Buffalo and the Titans could find themselves back behind 0.500 by the time Locker returns.

The only positive is that the Titans play their remaining 5 Divisonal games after Week 10 so the AFC South may not be beyond their reach by the time Locker returns, but this has put them in a tough spot to make the Play Offs.


The Dolphins loss is the Detroit Lions gain: No, nothing to do with the blow out suffered by the Miami Dolphins in New Orleans, but all do with Reggie Bush- the Running Back was rejuvenated at Miami following his career at the Saints, but Miami decided to let him go this summer and Bush has found the perfect system to complement his talents in Detroit.

While he may not be the ground and pound sort of Back, Bush is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield and his presence has given Detroit another seam to their Offense that was missing last year when they became a predictable, one-dimensional team.

I did think Miami made the right decision in moving on as there were other areas of the team that needed to get paid, but when you see Bush doing some of the things he can, you do miss him.




The London game: The first NFL game at Wembley Stadium is in the books and I have to say I did have fun watching my first live game for a couple of years.

However, don't let the TV companies fool you about some of the issues that are still surrounding the game: One, I don't know how a franchise would work here as there are a lot of issues surrounding a franchise actually being in England under UK and EU laws,

Two, never let me hear again on our British TV as to how good the tailgate is... The beer gardens were closed a full hour and a half before the game was to kick off with the ridiculous reason being given that it 'takes a while to get into the stadium'- absolutely bizarre and thankfully the pubs didn't go with the same policy.

And I am very much looking forward to how they are going to hype the Jacksonville Jaguars being here for the next four seasons!!



Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (4-0): They are not just unbeaten, but Denver haven't even been challenged at the moment as they get set to visit Dallas.

2) Seattle Seahawks (4-0): Seattle should have lost on Sunday, but they remain unbeaten and the pick of the NFC teams.

3) New England Patriots (4-0): I did say New England will be fine, unfortunately, and they remain the dominant force in the AFC East.

4) New Orleans Saints (4-0): The Offense is clicking and Rob Ryan is getting the Defense to make plays, while a comfortable lead in the NFC South is another benefit for this team.

5) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0): I have the Chiefs finally moving into the top five because I am not convinced by a team that has beaten up the NFC East and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Taking on Tennessee, even without Jake Locker, should still offer a test of their credentials.


Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4): This team just plain sucks- I would favour the Alabama Crimson Tide to beat them right now.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4): Greg Schiano may have made the move from Josh Freeman to Mike Glennon, but the Buccaneers continue losing games that they should win.

30) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4): Losing to another team without a win and Pittsburgh have been described as perhaps the 'worst team in the League' by Quarter Back Ben Roethlisberger... Not quite the worst team yet, or as long as the Jaguars are playing.

29) New York Giants (0-4): Another heavy loss on the road, but Antrel Rolle believes the team can still run the table. I am not with him, but they have a big game this weekend against Philadelphia- win that and the Giants are somehow relevant in the NFC East again.

28) St Louis Rams (1-3): Some people had the Rams as one of the dark horses in the NFC at the start of the season, but they have looked plain horrible in their opening four games and are perhaps fortunate to have one win on board.


Week 5 Picks
In Week 3, I had a lot of picks end up on the wrong side of 'freak' events that ended up leaving the picks with a slight loss on the week, but it all turned around in Week 4 and I ended up on the right side of those intangible factors.

There is absolutely no way that either Seattle or Arizona should have been covering last week and those picks were saved by disgraceful play-calling and rancid mistakes when both Houston and Tampa Bay respectively should have won those games.

On the other hand, Dallas should not be blowing an 11 point half time lead against a team like San Diego, but they too were affected by bad play calls and those blown games can come back to haunt a team in a Division like the NFC East.


It has been a decent first quarter of the regular season for the picks, but we all know it can turn quickly so will hope to roll with the momentum picked up early on.


Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I don't think you can ever be good about laying the points with a team like the Cleveland Browns, but that is the situation I find myself in for this Thursday Night Football game, although I will keep stakes to a minimum.

Both teams are 2-2 coming into the game and the trade of Trent Richardson hasn't been the tanking move that some suspected as Cleveland have won 2 in a row including an upset of the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday. Buffalo were also on the upset as they beat SuperBowl winners Baltimore at home, but playing on the road on a short week and injuries look to give the Bills a problem.

Buffalo are certainly more comfortable running the ball, but both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up and they go against a Defense that has allowed 2.9 yards per carry on the season. Cleveland's Defense is definitely one of the best in the NFL and Joe Haden should take away one of EJ Manuel's receiving weapons and this does look a tough ask for the rookie to move the chains with consistency on the road.

It should be easier for Cleveland to establish a running game, even without Trent Richardson, while Brad Hoyer has shown some nice touch under Center and should find a way to move the ball with his arm. However, the Offensive Line has stunk for the Browns and Hoyer won't have a lot of time in the pocket with the Bills crashing through.

I can't see either team sustaining drives throughout the game, but I think Hoyer makes a couple more plays than Manuel and that will help the Browns come through.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am a big admirer of what the Green Bay Packers do as a team, but I have a feeling this point spread is a little too high against the high-powered Offense the Detroit Lions have.

I have been hoping that there would have been enough interest in the Packers over the last week to move this point spread just above the Touchdown mark as there is a real chance that we could see a push in the game.

Green Bay are well rested and have Eddie Lacy back to run the ball and the Packers should move the ball through the air or on the ground with some comfort. However, the Offensive Line could come under some pressure up front from the Lions and that may be enough to at least slow down Green Bay a little bit.

Clay Matthews may be missing so Matthew Stafford should have time to find his Receivers downfield, although it is a shame that Nate Burleson broke his arm and will miss this game. Reggie Bush is around to pick up short passes that he can take a long way and it has been very possible to throw against the Packers Secondary.

So many trends are going against the Lions in this game, but they are off a big win over the Chicago Bears and I will take them for a unit.


Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The trade for Eugene Monroe might not make the headlines that the trade for Trent Richardson did a couple of weeks ago, but it is a very good move for the Baltimore Ravens and should help their Offensive Line moving forward for the rest of the season.

I think we will see signs of it in this game, although I am expecting both Offenses to stall and I would be surprised if we see a lot of points in this game outside of turnovers and Special Teams performances. However, with Cameron Wake questionable for this game, it may be the Baltimore Ravens that have more consistent success in getting into the backfield and hurrying Ryan Tannehill which could make the difference when the game is in the books

I do like the way Miami have gone about things in the first four weeks, but the Offensive Line is going to have a really tough day in the office in this game, probably the toughest they have faced since the opening day at Cleveland if not the toughest full stop.

That is going to lead to drives stalling and Ryan Tannehill taking a few sacks, while his ball handling hasn't been the best early on.

With not many points expected, the three points being given to the Ravens could turn out to be critical as long as the kicker doesn't miss a potential covering field goal as Matt Bryant did in the Atlanta game in Week 3. Miami are also beginning to turn around their record as a home favourite, but this hasn't been a great position for them to be in over the last few years, while they are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: If the New York Giants don't win this week, I don't know which game they will because this looks a good match up for them on paper and a chance to get the Offense back on track.

I do believe the Eagles will be able to move the chains too, but Philadelphia may struggle to do that consistently if the New York pass rush can just keep Michael Vick under pressure.

Tom Coughlin doesn't sound like he has lost the dressing room and the Giants are more than aware that they could find themselves only one game behind Dallas in the lead in the NFC East if they win this game and the Cowboys lose in their game later in the day. That is enough motivation for this team to stick together too.

New York's Offense should be able to find room in the Secondary to make plays and I think both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz will have decent days and I like the Giants to find a way to win this one.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Both teams could easily be 4-0 heading into Week 5 if Tennessee had not blown an 8 point lead against Houston and lose that game in overtime.

This is an important game for both teams and we have seen in the past teams rally around when their Quarter Back is injured, but this is a big ask for Tennessee. I also don't have a lot of trust in Ryan Fitzpatrick as I have seen him throw a pick six in crucial situations too many times during his career at the Buffalo Bills and this Kansas City Defense is legit.

Even if Fitzpatrick doesn't make the critical mistake that turns this game around, I do believe Kansas City will be able to sustain more drives as they seem to have a nice rhythm when it comes to managing the clock and having long drives that bleed clock and slowly wear down Defenses.

Both Defensive units will feel they will get to the opposition Quarter Back, but Jamaal Charles is another wild card for the Chiefs and I like them to move to 5-0 ahead of their first AFC West Divisional game next week.


Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: This is a tough game to predict, but I do think I need to have a unit on the Carolina Panthers to win in the desert, although it won't be easy for them.

The Panthers have struggled to run the ball with consistency at times this season, but the Cardinals pride themselves on being able to stop the ground game, while they have a couple of players in the Secondary that have a nose for the ball and could force turnovers.

Cam Newton has to take advantage of all his attributes to help the Panthers move the chains in this one, but Arizona have given up big numbers through the air and haven't been at their best in getting to the Quarter Back.

Another problem for the Cardinals is trading away their starting Left Tackle, Levi Brown, weakens an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect the immobile Carson Palmer. Now they face a Carolina Defense that destroyed the New York Giant O-Line a couple of weeks ago and who should keep Palmer under constant pressure.

Palmer is still good enough to make some throws to Larry Fitzgerald, but the Receiver has been banged up and the Cardinals have also struggled to run the ball to negate any pass rush.

Carolina are just 2-4 against the spread coming off a bye in the last six seasons and they are travelling across the country for this game. That reduces my pick to a unit, but the fact that Arizona are playing San Francisco and Seattle in the next two weeks may have taken their focus away from this game so a small play on the Panthers is the call.


Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I did believe this spread would have gone up as the week developed, but Dallas have a lot of followers that will pound a bigger number. Unfortunately for them, I think this number is likely at least 3 points too short.

Something that has reached my ears over the last week has been the comparison of this Denver Bronco team to the almost all-conquering New England Patriot team of 2007 that won every game up until the Super Bowl.

If anyone remembers, that New England team pounded the spread for the first few weeks as the layers were slow to react to their Offense and this feels the same for these Broncos.

Denver will continue scoring a lot of points and the question is whether Dallas can keep up? Their play-calling this season doesn't suggest so and while Tony Romo has been pretty good the first four weeks of the season, he will be under a lot of pressure to match Peyton Manning point for point.

The Cowboys won't want to lose at home, but they have a more important game next week at home against the Washington Redskins, while Denver have pounded two NFC East teams already this season. I fear Dallas will be the latest to take a loss and I feel the Broncos win this one by double-digits.


Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The San Francisco 49ers have been given a few extra days to get ready for this game and that could be critical against a team that has to be feeling a little sorry for themselves after blowing a win in the fashion they did last week.

I didn't think Houston would be one of the Super Bowl contenders in a tough AFC as their Defense has struggled to stop the best Quarter Backs in pressure moments, but I didn't expect them to have had so many close games to open the season.

It does seem that teams have got the memo as to how to defend Matt Schaub, while Andre Johnson's limitations through injury have taken away his most trustworthy Receiver.

All of that doesn't bode well for a team heading to Candlestick Park in a primetime game and I do think the San Francisco Offense is capable of putting up enough points in this one that will be defended by the Defense.

Matt Schaub has thrown a pick-six in three straight games and a fourth would see the 49ers win this game fairly comfortably I feel and I like San Francisco against the spread. The 49ers are a strong home favourite under Jim Harbaugh, going 12-4 against the spread and they are 7-2 against the spread in night games under this Head Coach.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 3 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 33-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 26-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 15-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 201321-12-1, + 11.13 Units
Season 2012- 4.78 Units

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