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Sunday, 27 October 2013

NFL Week 8 Picks 2013 (October 24-28)

This has been a terrible couple of days for me with work and issues with my phone that have prevented me from doing my full weekly post for the NFL (and College Football/Weekend Football) posts this weekend.

Suffice to say, I will be back with a fuller post for Week 9 next week, but for now I will have a few breakdown of games to be played in the NFL and other picks from the week at the bottom of the post. I will also update season tallies at the end of the post next week.

Jacksonville Jaguars v San Francisco 49ers Pick: London is preparing itself for stormy and erratic weather, but this game should be played in enough time to be adversely affected by the weather.

If it is raining and windy, that will only work in San Francisco's favour even more as they simply run the ball effectively and can stop the run on Defense.

Chad Henne isn't very mobile and is going to be under a lot more pressure than Colin Kaepernick throughout the game and everything is pointing to a comfortable win for the 49ers.

San Francisco have been here a few days to get accustomed to the change in time zone and they should be focused as they continue chasing the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. They are the more effective Offense and have played some dominating games Defensively to extend Jacksonville's run of defeats by double digits here.

Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Coming off a loss and having two weeks to think about that and preparing for this game is not really the time when you want to play the New Orleans Saints, but that is the spot that the Buffalo Bills find themselves in.

The Bills were impressive in their win at Miami last week with Thad Lewis holding tough, but they have to keep this close they can use their Running Backs to full effect. If the Bills are forced to throw the ball to keep up, this team could struggle as they are not built to do that and New Orleans' pass Defense has been pretty good.

We know the Saints are going to score their points at home and it is a tough spot for Buffalo having to play their second of back to back road games, especially of an important Division win last week.

New Orleans have been very strong at home under Sean Payton and they will want to make amends for their loss to the New England Patriots. The Saints also cannot afford to drop a winnable home game with Carolina breathing down their necks in the NFC South and I like New Orleans to cover.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: Ryan Tannehill has to be more secure with the ball if the Miami Dolphins are going to come to New England and come away with the win- it was another fumble from the Quarter Back that led to the loss to Buffalo last week and he has been guilty of being a little sloppy with the ball in his hands.

That won't cut it against New England who will be looking to rectify the mistakes that cost them the win against the New York Jets last week. Tom Brady isn't as good with pressure in his face and Miami will certainly think they can do enough of that to at least force Brady to make mistakes.

However, it is tough to see how the Dolphins have sustained success Offensively in this one and the Patriots have dominated the recent series with a 4-2 record against the spread.

I do think the Dolphins can have more success against this banged up Defense, but Aqib Talib is likely back to shut down the Receiver he is covering and I think another week of having Rob Gronkowski back in the Offense will be enough to get the Patriots the win here and control of the AFC East.

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions Pick: I am expecting both teams to have some considerable success throwing the ball in this game, but I do have a feeling that the Detroit Lions are going to come away with a vital win in their bid to get back to the Play Offs after missing out last week.

The Lions are going into the bye at the end of this game and they will be fully focused to get a couple of games above 0.500 and also earn a potential tie-breaker against a possible Wild Card rival later in the year.

Home field should prove to be the difference, especially as Dallas are on the second of back to back road games and the Cowboys have also won a couple of Divisional games and may have put too much effort into those games.

Both teams have Receivers that will want to show why they are considered amongst the best in the NFL and this could be a high-scoring contest. However, I can see the ball-hawking Secondary of the Lions possibly creating a late turnover that leads to Detroit getting to 5-3 and dropping Dallas back with the pile in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Green Bay Packers are dealing with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball, but they are coming through adversity and I like their chances of winning this game on the road.

It is always tough for teams to play on Monday Night Football and get ready for a Sunday game, while the uncertainty at the Quarter Back position has to be a concern for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson hasn't looked himself in the last couple of games and I think his injury is slowing him down a little too much, plus Green Bay are stout against the run to at least limit the impact he can have on the game.

We know Aaron Rodgers is a capable Quarter Back that should have a lot of success against this Secondary, even with new weapons lining up alongside him. The Packers have momentum on their side, have the better team and look set to take a hold of the NFC North.

Playing a key Divisional game will keep the Packers focused on what they want to do and I like them to win this game.

Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Seattle Seahawks have been playing really good football all season and they have found enough Offense to come through games, although the Defense has made a lot of big plays on the road to keep the team in games and also change the momentum.

It was the Defense that sparked the win in Houston and I can see this unit causing Kellen Clemens a lot of problems in his first start in relief of Sam Bradford.

Clemens will be under pressure for much of the game as he can't rely on the running game to slow down the pass rush and not too many Receivers get the better of the two Corner Backs Seattle send out to the field.

The pressure on Clemens has every chance of leading to mistakes, while Seattle have had a few extra days to prepare for this game. The San Francisco win yesterday and the fact that this is a Divisional game will only make Seattle that much more determined to win the game and I am struggling to see how St Louis keep up unless Russell Wilson has a really bad game.

It is clear the favourite is going to get pounded in sports books throughout the world who are interested in the NFL, so I would suggest locking in a price on Seattle now while the spread is still at 12 points.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 11 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 11 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 12 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

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