College Football Week 7 Picks 2013 (October 12th)

It has been one of those weeks when it seems I haven't had enough hours in a day to manage my time properly... That is the sole reason these picks have come out today and not last night as I would have usually put them up, but that also means I have given myself sufficient time to research the nine picks I have for this week.


Texas Longhorns v Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The game is being played on a neutral field in Dallas for the latest instalment of the Red River Rivalry and the suggestion is this will be Mack Brown's last time facing Oklahoma Sooners as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns.

Losing David Ash is a problem for Texas as they take on this inconsistent Oklahoma Offense, especially as the Longhorns have continued to struggle in containing teams rushing against them. The Sooners will likely pound the ball down their throat and that should give Blake Bell a little more time with the option to play-action and also run the read option.

It will be tough for Texas to keep up if they get into a hole with the Sooners pass Defense being the strength of that unit and I think Longhorns may have to eat their fourth straight loss in the series.

Oklahoma are 5-2 against the spread on a neutral field while the Longhorns are 2-5 and I'm backing the Sooners in this one.


Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: It seems a lot of people like the Nebraska Cornhuskers this weekend and that has seen the spread rise above the two Touchdown mark, although I have them as a 17-21 point winner here, but that has come back down as we reach the morning of the game.

Purdue have struggled to stop Offenses both on the ground and through the air and it is a lot to ask of their freshman starting Quarter Back to keep up with the powerful Nebraska team.

One concern is that by running the ball, Nebraska will be shortening the game and the backdoor cover could be on, but the Cornhuskers should be able to build a decent size lead in this one by ripping off large chunks of yardage at a time. I also believe Nebraska will win the turnover battle in this one and that could be enough to see them over the spread with the extra possessions that come their way.

Nebraska also have a bye coming up following this game so they can focus completely on getting up to 2-0 in the Conference and I like the Cornhuskers to do that in style.


Memphis Tigers @ Houston Cougars Pick: Memphis put in a huge effort to fall just short against the UCF Knights at home last weekend and I think this is a big ask for them to repeat that at the high-scoring Houston Cougars on the road this time.

Houston have bashed up Memphis the last couple of times these schools have played one another, although the Cougars have lost the likes of Case Keenum since then. That hasn't stopped the Cougars putting up a bunch of points this season though.

The Tigers will feel they can slow the Houston rushing game a little bit as they have only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, but the Cougars are just as capable of throwing the ball and don't turn the ball over a lot.

With the Cougars moving up and down the field, Memphis will be able to match them somewhat against a pass Defense that has allowed 280 yards per game so far. The Tigers will have to be careful of the pressure that Houston get up front though, and also the fact that a ball-hawking Secondary can turn the ball over.

It may come down to an Interception that helps the Cougars cover here and I like them to take advantage of a team that may have left too much on the field last week.


Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Texas Tech have been one of the most fun teams to watch in College Football to open the season and I like their chances to maintain their unbeaten start against an Iowa State Cyclones team that was so close to the upset over Texas Longhorns last week.

The Red Raiders haven't been that effective at running the ball, but have been able to sling it around and pick up yards through the air without too many problems. They now face a Defense that is almost allowing 250 yards per game through the air, although one that should be able to pressure either Baker Mayfield or Davis Webb who will line up for the Red Raiders at Quarter Back.

On the other hand, Iowa State will certainly feel they can keep this competitive with their own ability to thrown the ball as they have put up huge numbers through the air. Interceptions have been an issue, but that is one area where Texas Tech haven't excelled in the early part of the season.

Iowa State's ground game should also get back on track, as long as they stay within touching distance of the Red Raiders, although they also have to find a way to punch in scores against a Defense that is playing very well.

Coming off a performance where they fell just short against one of the better teams in the Big 12 Conference is a tough spot for Iowa State and I do think Texas Tech pull the win and cover.


Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Baylor Bears have been a brilliant team to watch if you love Offense and they are likely to be a little too good for Kansas State in this one as I can't see the latter doing enough to slow them down.

If Baylor get in front, it could become a vicious circle for the Wildcats as they will have to throw to stay in the game and that will give the Bears the chance to unleash their pass rush.

If Daniel Sims begins to feel pressure, that will lead to mistakes and Baylor have turned the ball over to create extra possessions for Bryce Petty and the Offense who have scored plenty of points as they don't settle for Field Goals.

I think it is a big ask for a young Quarter Back to match the output that Baylor are going to have in this game and Kansas State are also off the back of a couple of heartbreaking losses in Conference play. There will be a real feeling that Kansas State should have won one, if not both, of those games and they could have a much harder time keeping up with the Bears in this one.


Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers Pick: This should be a fascinating battle between the LSU Tigers Offense and the Florida Gators Defense and that is one I am looking forward to watching on Saturday evening.

I really like the way Cam Cameron has this Offense playing and I certainly think they will score points in this one despite Florida being so tough on the Defensive side of the ball. I think Zach Mettenberger has looked comfortable in the Offense and he has limited his mistakes which has been a huge factor.

It will be interesting to see how he limits those mistakes against a Defense that has prided itself in taking the ball away from their opponents. At home, I think Mettenberger will be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and using Jeremy Hill to keep the Defense honest.

The difference could be made by a Tigers Defense that could force Tyler Murphy into a couple of mistakes in the Quarter Back's toughest road test. This is a hard place for experienced Quarter Backs to come and play and I believe Murphy may make a couple of mental mistakes that could give the Tigers the extra possessions to seal the deal.

LSU have struggled to make the plays in turning the ball over, but I can see them creating one turnover towards the end of the game that helps the Tigers see off the Gators.


Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Michigan have been a little erratic at times and some may have jumped off their bandwagon after a couple of really bad performances against Akron and Connecticut.

Playing at Happy Valley is never an easy prospect for visiting teams, but this is a young Penn State team that may struggle to avoid the mistakes that cost them in this game against a Big Ten rival.

Devin Gardner is the key to the performance as he has shown some flashes of a real quality Quarter Back, but then had back to back bad performances against the schools mentioned. He will need to be careful in this one as the turnover battle is likely to be a real key in the contest.

The Wolverines are the more talented team on both sides of the ball and I do believe they will turn the ball over to stop a key Penn State drive and help maintain their unbeaten start to the new season.


Stanford Cardinal @ Utah Utes Pick: This is a fascinating game between Pac-12 rivals and will give us a good indication as to where Stanford Cardinal are as a team... The Utah Utes were beaten in a tight game against the UCLA Bruins last week, but they will set a test for a team that is hoping to reach the National Championship Game after being pretty close the last couple of years.

It has been over 15 years since these schools have played one another and a lot has changed since those times as Stanford are now one of the powerhouses in College Football.

The Utes should be able to throw the ball with some success against the Cardinal Defense, but will be faced with some pressure up front which can lead to mistakes like Interceptions. That is how the 'bend, but don't break' system of Stanford has been successful this season, especially if they continuing shutting down the ground attack where they have limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry.

Utah's Defense have also been effective at shutting down the run game, but this Offensive Line will be the toughest one they have seen and Stanford are capable of opening up some holes.

That will be the key for Stanford if they are to win this game as that can slow down the pass rush that Utah will send, especially considering the Cardinal have more rushing yards than yards through the air. Kevin Hogan hasn't had a huge game yet for Stanford at the Quarter Back position, but Utah give up almost 275 yards per game through aerial attacks and one that hasn't been able to turn the ball over.

This should be close, but I have a little more respect for the Stanford team than this tough Utah one. I also like the fact that Stanford are 10-3 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of years.


Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: I am expecting both teams to move the ball throughout this contest and both should score their fair share of points in what could be another SEC shoot-out in what has been a strange season for that Conference.

Both Texas A&M and Mississippi will have a lot of faith in their Offense coming into this one, but both will be hoping to see some improvements from the Defensive side of the ball.

Texas A&M should be able to find the edge from the fact that they are coming off a bye and their Defense has been a little more comfortable picking up Interceptions. This game has all the making of one that could be settled by the winner of the turnover battle and I am giving the Aggies an edge on that front.

The Rebels are off a couple of very disappointing losses and they may just struggle to contain Johnny Manziel- I do like the Aggies to cover the spread in this one.

MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 9 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)

Season 2013: 26-20-1, + 4.56 Units (47 Units Staked, + 9.7% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)