World Cup Qualifiers 2013 (October 11th)

I am not a massive fan of the international weeks in football as I do feel there are too many of them which are largely pointless and there are too many mismatches during the qualifying rounds, particularly in Europe.

That is not the case when we get down to the last couple of matches as we then begin to see some tension and some real interest in what is going to happen and that is the situation this week. England are one of the 'big nations' that will be looking to stamp their passports to Brazil next summer, although they have to win their remaining two games at Wembley Stadium having failed to beat the best teams in their section over the last twelve months.

It is also a big week for a nation like Bosnia that have come very close to qualifying for a major international tournament in recent years, but fallen just short at the last hurdle. Bosnia need to match the points Greece get in the remaining two games of the Group if they are to automatically qualify for the World Cup and that may be their best opportunity as it is unlikely that they would be seeded in a potential Play Off.

The picture of qualification will certainly become clear after the Friday night qualifiers are completed and it should be a fascinating evening of football.


England v Montenegro Pick: There just seems to be a lot chaos around the England team at the minute which shows the scale of pressure which is on the home team to win their 2 remaining qualifiers and book a place in Brazil.

We have heard Harry Redknapp criticise the decision to appoint Roy Hodgson ahead of himself, while Jack Wilshire made some interesting comments over who should, and shouldn't, be eligible to play for England in the future.

It will be interesting to see how the England team respond to some of these issues and I can see this being a fairly tense night for the hosts. Montenegro are a hard team to play and, barring that result against Ukraine, they don't concede a lot of goals as they remain organised and resolute in the face of pressure.

England are also likely to be a little cautious with the way Roy Hodgson approaches games and I can see them looking to be solid too knowing that they have the whole game to get a goal. I do think there are goals in the England team with the way that Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge have opened the season, but they may have to be patient at times.

I would be surprised if we see a dearth of goals in this one and this could easily be settled by just a solitary strike, but England seem to be one of these teams that play spectacular football one game and can be turgid another.

Joe Hart does concern me, but I do think England can win this one with a clean sheet to boot.


Netherlands v Hungary Pick: The Netherlands have continued to be a dominating team at home and I think they will prove to be too strong for a Hungary team that may get a little desperate searching for goals as the game develops.

There is little doubt that Romania will beat Andorra on Friday and are very likely to beat Estonia at home next week which means Hungary have to really win their remaining two games if they are to finish behind the Netherlands and earn a place in the Play Offs.

If they are behind, or level, in the remaining stages, there is a chance that Hungary could over-commit players and allow Holland to strike on the counter. The Netherlands have also scored plenty of goals in their home qualifiers and they haven't conceded any here which makes the 1.5 Asian Handicap appeal all the more.

At odds against, I think Holland to win this by a couple of goals is the call.


Germany v Republic of Ireland Pick: The one element of the Republic of Ireland game you have to respect is the defensive organisation they have displayed away from home, although the departure of Giovanni Trapattoni will have taken away some of the tactical nous in picking up results at tough away venues.

Noel King will take charge for this game and he couldn't have asked for a much tougher test as they face the Group leaders who have the motivation to seal their place in Brazil. Germany have scored plenty of goals at home and would have won all 4 games easily here if it wasn't for the ridiculous collapse from 4-0 up to a 4-4 draw with Sweden.

Germany have won the other 3 games by at least 3 goals and I believe their motivation for booking their ticket to Brazil, and the uncertainty in the Ireland camp, should allow the Germans to win this one in a little bit of style.


Sweden v Austria Pick: When we get down to the last couple of rounds of the qualifiers, there is always going to be tension, particularly in games like this where there is two years work on the line.

That is the case for Sweden and Austria who will either be getting excited about potentially having the chance to play in Brazil in a World Cup next summer or wondering how much hard work has been wasted.

Both teams will be a little cautious- it is a strange situation where the draw could be seen as a result that will set up either team to go through, while a win brings a lot of benefits. Austria will know that Germany are capable of winning in Sweden, but they also know a win can at least put their own destiny in their hands without having to rely on a favour from a neighbouring country.

Germany have helped Austria out in the past, most famously in the 1982 World Cup, but all of this will be a moot point if Sweden can pick up the win. Sweden have been a strong home team in the qualifying round and will feel confident they can earn the win in this one to book a Play Off place without the worry of having to earn something against Germany next week.

It is Austria's poor record on their travels in competitive games that has me believing in Sweden's chances of grabbing the 3 points in this one. The odds are not the greatest, but I do favour Sweden enough to take those on the home win.

MY PICKS: England to Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sweden @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

October Update: 9-6-1, + 9.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 44.45% Yield)

September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)