I have put this down as November picks despite the season actually starting on October 30th this year, a much different scenario to a year ago when these games were being cancelled and the season eventually began on Christmas Day.
The good news is we won't see the awkward back-to back-to back situation of a season ago which made the regular season almost impossible to negotiate, with most of my best results coming in the Play Offs when the layers were heavily punished.
October 30th
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: Over the last couple of days, everyone should have heard the statistic that the reigning Champions are just 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 seasons in their first game of the new season, but I expect the Heat players would have been focused to make a real statement against the Celtics who are likely their biggest challengers again in the coming year.
The arrival of Ray Allen gives the game added spice, but I think the Heat put a marker down in this one and my first pick of the new season is taking the Heat for a unit- I still have a lot of respect for Doc Rivers and Boston so don't want to go against them heavily in this one.
October 31st
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Denver have revamped their roster in the trade involving Dwight Howard, as have Philadelphia, but I think the Nuggets have more pieces involved here and can win for the 6th time in 8 visits here.
Andre Iguodala will be fired up in front of his former home supporters, and I imagine he will have let his team know the weaknesses that can be exposed, while the absence of Andrew Bynum for the home team is big news.
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I know Danny Granger is out, but the Indiana Pacers are still one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and they did beat Toronto in all 3 meetings last season.
The Raptors will surprise some teams this season as their roster looks decent, but I think the chemistry might be a concern early and that is where I will look for the Pacers to take advantage.
Indiana have won their last 2 visits to Canada and I will look for them to make it a hat-trick tonight.
November 2nd
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Pick: I think the Miami Heat are going to put down another marker in this one for the rest of the Eastern Conference by knocking off the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
There should be a lot of emotion in the building as it is the first game since the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy, but the Heat players love playing at Madison Square Garden.
The Heat are healthier, have the better roster and have are 5-2 against the spread at the Garden in their last 7 visits and I think they improve that in this one.
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers Pick: The Lakers were always going to need a bit of time to gel the new roster together, just remember back to the teething problems Miami had after putting together James, Wade and Bosh.
I think Kobe Bryant will have them fired up tonight against their City rivals, but the Clippers aren't the pushovers of old and I think both teams will push one another.
The overs has been a winner in 5 straight, while 9 of the last 11 would have surpassed the 189.5 total points offered on the game and I think one team breaks 100 points in a close one that could really go either way.
November 4th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Toronto have perhaps been a little unfortunate to not have won one of their opening two games, but I feel they can get off the mark against a Minnesota team missing Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love until next month.
The Raptors should have closed the show against Indiana in their home opener and I think they have a chance against a team they have beaten 8 times in a row and who they hold a 9-2 record against the spread when hosting them.
I'll be looking for a bit more consistency on the offensive side of the ball to get the job done this time.
November 5th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I am taking against the Timberwolves again today as I think a short-handed team could be even more stretched as JJ Barea is expected to miss out with concussion-like symptoms.
The Nets look to have the deeper roster in this game and I think they should still be riding a bit of momentum after winning their opener here and playing a team on the second of back to back nights surely favours Brooklyn.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Both teams have knocked off the LA Lakers in the early going, but I think Dallas playing at home gives them the edge in this game.
The Trail Blazers have struggled to follow up victories in their last few games going back to last season, going just 6-17 against the spread in their next game.
The Mavericks are without Dirk Nowitzki in the early goings, but they are 5-1 straight up against Portland at home, going 4-2 against the spread in those games and I think the Trail Blazers, despite the win in Houston, won't be as effective outside of the Rose Garden.
November 6th
The first thing I want to say here is I cannot believe the way Brooklyn blew up yesterday as they had a 22 point lead in the third quarter and eventually lost the game by 11 which should highlight the complete collapse they had. Fortunately, Dallas made sure it wasn't all bad yesterday to split the picks again.
Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: There is a lot of talk as to whether the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost a bit of chemistry by trading away James Harden right before the season began, but I am of the belief that they have been sloppy in their play and it is the number of turnovers that are hurting them.
Toronto have created a number of turnovers in their opening games and their new look roster looks decent and one that will cause problems, but I just think this is a bad spot for them as they are playing an angry team.
Kevin Martin has been providing points off the bench for Oklahoma City and I think they will settle down as they are too good not to.
The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 home games against Toronto and they are 5-1 against the spread in recent games, while the spread looks low and an over-reaction to recent games.
November 8th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls Pick: This is the first of two nationally televised games and I think the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be too powerful Offensively for the Chicago Bulls to handle.
The Bulls remain a tough Defense, but missing their best player Derrick Rose is going to make it tough for them when they play a team that has so many scoring weapons as the Thunder and I struggle to see how they will keep up.
Oklahoma City have won 2 of their 3 games in Chicago since the franchise moved from Seattle and I think they make it 3 of 4 with too much scoring for the Bulls to keep up.
November 9th
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Only the second time that the Heat will be going on the road this season, but they look worth the call considering Miami have destroyed Atlanta in all 4 games played in this Arena since the 'Big Three' got together. They have covered the spread each time and have won each game by at least 7 points per game.
The Heat will want to erase the memory of their defeat at Madison Square Garden in their only other road game of the season, while I think Atlanta are not as good as they were last season.
Atlanta have had a couple of good wins in a row and that might have convinced the layers to keep the spread as 'low' as I feel it is.
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Pick: San Antonio were destroyed by the LA Clippers in their last game and this is the first of back to back nights play for the Spurs and all of that has contributed to the spread being at an acceptable level as they travel to Sacramento.
The Kings have lost 8 in a row against San Antonio and have also failed to stay within the spread in 4 in a row at home against the Spurs.
San Antonio are also an impressive 15-1 in their last 16 games when playing the first of back to back nights scheduled, and they are 10-4-1 against the spread in those games.
With their stars being rested down the stretch of the loss to the Clippers, I think the Spurs bounce back in this one and they will be focused now Sacramento have won back to back games.
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The Denver Nuggets finally grabbed their first win of the season and they may be able to take advantage of a Utah Jazz team that continues to struggle on the road and who may be a little flat after putting in a big effort to knock off the LA Lakers in their last game.
The Jazz actually have a decent recent record in Denver, going 3-3 straight up and winning 2 of their last 3 following a 1-7 run.
Both teams are on the front end of back to back nights play but have had differing success in this spot- Utah have lost their last 5 games straight up and are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 in this situation; Denver are 6-2 straight up and are 9-2 against the spread.
November 11th
Atlanta Hawks @ LA Clippers Pick: The Clippers have bounced back with back to back wins since a loss to Cleveland and I think they can take advantage of an Atlanta squad beginning a road trip after a tough game against Miami where they came up a little short.
The Clippers beat the Hawks comfortably last season at home and I think they have too much scoring for them in this one.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Thunder have been beginning to find their rhythm Offensively and I think they may be a little too good for the Cleveland Cavaliers who blew a big lead against Phoenix a couple of nights ago.
Oklahoma City should be focused in front of their own fans, while the Cavaliers could be focusing on an Eastern Conference clash against Brooklyn which is next on slate for them.
The spread being just under double digits makes sense to me as a chance of backing the Thunder.
November 12th
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Heat were blown out yesterday and they have gone 11-4 against the spread when they are coming off a straight up loss of double digits and I think they will be ready to take on the Rockets here.
Houston are still finding their feet with their new roster, but Miami are a very strong Defensive team that will be able to get some control over them in this one.
Miami have won 2 in a row in Houston and I like them to take the W in this one and cover the 5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Oklahoma City have played a lot of basketball in recent days, but I think they are going to score too many points for Detroit to keep up in this one.
The Pistons have struggled this season as they are not getting enough scoring outside of Greg Monroe and that is tough when coming up against Oklahoma City.
Detroit are just 2-5 against the spread in the series and they may just seen another loss on the slate in this one to fall to 0-8 for the season.
November 13th
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Orlando Magic are really struggling Offensively as they get used to life without Dwight Howard and they have failed to score more than 75 points in their last 3 games.
The Knicks have been very hot from the 3 point range and that should lead them to extending their winning run to the season as they have scored 100 plus points in all of their wins this season, while they have continued playing tough Defense under Mike Woodson from last season.
New York have a 3-1 record against the spread in the last 4 games of the series.
November 14th
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics Pick: I like the Celtics to continue rolling and extend their run to 5 wins from 6 tonight, although they haven't been that good in the first of back to back nights play, going 1-4 in that spot.
However, Boston have dominated the Jazz at home in recent games and they may be catching Utah on an emotional climb down after they won in triple overtime in Toronto on Monday night.
Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Atlanta are a veteran squad that may be looking forward to ending their mini road trip and could be caught by a youthful Golden State team that has pushed most of the teams they have played this season.
The Hawks did snap a 2 game losing run last time out, but I just think the young energy of the Warriors will seen them erase memories of falling short against Denver in overtime and recover here.
November 15th
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Knicks have been a pleasant surprise early in the season, but this is the toughest road test they will have faced and I think the Spurs are going to be focused enough to end the last unbeaten run in the NBA.
San Antonio have won 9 in a row against New York, including 8 of those by at least 9 points, so I like them covering the spread in this one.
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Both of these sides have Offensive power and I like them combining to surpass the 202 total points mark.
3 of their last 4 games has seen both teams hit at least 100 points and they were involved in a barn stormer earlier this season. Denver are rightly the favourites, but I don't like under-estimating the Heat and I like the over total points in this one.
MY PICKS: 30/10 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/10 Denver Nuggets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
31/10 Indiana Pacers - 2 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
02/11 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/11 LA Lakers-LA Clippers Over 189.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
04/11 Toronto Raptors - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/11 Brooklyn Nets - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/11 Dallas Mavericks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
06/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/11 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/11 San Antonio Spurs - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
09/11 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
11/11 LA Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
11/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
12/11 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
13/11 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
14/11 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/11 Golden State Warriors - 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/11 San Antonio Spurs - 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 Denver Nuggets-Miami Heat Over 201.5 Total Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
November Update: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Tuesday, 30 October 2012
Sunday, 28 October 2012
NFL Week 8 Picks 2012
So as I mentioned, it has been a really busy week with work and things, but I did have a really cool moment this week too as I met Marcel Dareus, Kelvin Sheppard and Stevie Johnson of the Buffalo Bills.
Don't get me wrong, being a Dolphins fan means the Bills are not high on my list, but I loved Dareus at Alabama and it's always nice getting the opportunity to speak to these guys that play the game we love.
It was also cool getting Dareus and Sheppard involved in a mock argument about the LSU-Alabama game next month... I think it was a little surprise to them that someone was talking to them about the College Football game, but it was cool as they kept talking while signing bits and pieces for other fans.
Stevie Johnson was also humble, something I wasn't really expecting after some of his 'celebrations' last season including mocking Plaxico Burress, so that was a pleasant surprise too.
All in all, it was a lot of fun and I am just a little disappointed I couldn't go with a buddy of mine when he went to meet Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk earlier in the week.
The picks last week actually showed a small profit when it was all said and done, but I feel I missed out a little there as a couple of late picks screwed the profit, including that horrible call in the Baltimore game.
I'll be updating the season tallies in my Week 9 post, but for now, these are the picks for the NFL Week 8 games:
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I am taking the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I was expecting Trent Richardson not to be playing but it has sounded like he is good to go and that has reduced my keenness on this game. However, San Diego should be able to run the ball effectively and I think they are well rested off the bye.
Second, teams coming off a bye and set as the road favourite usually perform well in that spot.
Third, Cleveland are only 3-6 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the home underdog against non-Divisional opponents. They host Baltimore next week here and may just be focused on concentrating all of their efforts in that one.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Pick: I am going to back the Detroit Lions to win this game and cover the spread and hopefully improve the mood of a city that is watching their Detroit Tigers take a beating in the World Series. I like the Lions for the following reasons:
First, despite the short week, the Lions are a better team than they are showing and their 2-4 record is down to playing 4 road games in my opinion. I expect a much better showing in front of their own fans.
Second, Seattle are not the same team when playing on the road, going 1-3 so far this season, while they are 4-14 against the spread when playing the early game in the Eastern Time Zone.
Third, the Lions are 6-1-3 against the spread as the favourite of 3 points or less in recent seasons.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I really like the Philadelphia Eagles to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Falcons are totally over-rated as they were lucky to beat Oakland, Carolina and Washington in the last three weeks before the bye.
Second, Philadelphia are awesome coming off the bye week under Andy Reid, going 10-3 against the spread in that time.
Third, the Eagles have owned the Falcons in recent seasons, going 7-2 against the spread and they had won 3 in a row before last season when the injury to Michael Vick cost the Eagles the win.
Fourth, there are a couple of really nice trends that I have read: Teams coming off an overtime loss are 38-15 against the spread in their next game when not the road underdog; Road underdogs with a week off following a win are 32-50 against the spread in their next game.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: I like my Miami Dolphins to cover the spread at the least in this one for the following reasons:
First, the New York Jets might be a little over-rated following their performance against the New England Patriots and who isn't to say they left something on the field last week in that heartbreaking overtime loss?
Second, Miami are a fabulous road underdog, going 22-7-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons, including 2-1 this season.
Third, Miami are playing with revenge after an undeserved loss earlier this season, while they had won 3 in a row here before the loss last season.
Fourth, Mark Sanchez was serviceable last weekend, but he will have the pressure on him again this week as the Dolphins have been pretty strong against the run. Miami will also get a lot more pressure in his face and I am looking for key turnovers perhaps leading to a Dolphin outright win.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I am backing another underdog here and taking the Oakland Raiders to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Brady Quinn is taking over as Quarter Back permanently for Kansas City and I don't think he is serviceable as a starting QB... With the Raiders being pretty good against the run, the pressure is on Quinn to win this game and I don't trust him.
Second, the Chiefs stink in the role of the home favourite, going 3-13-1 against the spread over the last five seasons in that role, including 0-8 against the spread against Divisional rivals here as the home favourite.
Third, how about this? Oakland are 16-3 against the spread as the road underdog against Divisional rivals!
Fourth, the Chiefs are also playing on a Thursday night and teams favoured ahead of that new game on the schedule are 1-6 against the spread this season.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the New York Giants, despite having a soft spot for the Cowboys, to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Giants have revenge on their mind from the Week 1 loss and will have Jerry Jones' proclamation that he wants the fans to come and see Dallas 'kick the Giants ass' at home this season, plenty of motivation.
Second, I think the loss of Sean Lee is huge for the Cowboys and he is one of my favourite players for his attitude... His absence means the New York running game could have a lot more success than they did earlier in the season.
Third, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Giants have won all 3 visits to this stadium, although all of those in the underdog spot.
Fourth, the Giants are 17-8 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons, although only 3-4 against Divisional rivals in that spot.
Fifth, I watch a lot of Dallas games and can't help but think that this talented team will find a way to kill themselves- be it penalties, clock management or bad decisions, I just can't shake the fact that they will do something stupid in this one that costs them the game.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Pick: I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to keep within the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, there are just some elite Quarter Backs that shouldn't be considered underdogs too often, especially not by almost a touchdown. Drew Brees is one of those who has led teams to 8-4 against the spread when he is given more than a field goal of points.
Second, Peyton Manning teams are about 50-50 against the spread when trying to cover more than a field goal as the favourite but less than double digits terms of points. Coupled with the Brees stat, it does tend to lead me towards the Saints to cover.
Third, I just think the Saints are playing with a bit of momentum at the moment with back to back wins and that should inspire them to keep it close, but I'll have only a small interest in the game.
MY PICKS: San Diego Chargers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Don't get me wrong, being a Dolphins fan means the Bills are not high on my list, but I loved Dareus at Alabama and it's always nice getting the opportunity to speak to these guys that play the game we love.
It was also cool getting Dareus and Sheppard involved in a mock argument about the LSU-Alabama game next month... I think it was a little surprise to them that someone was talking to them about the College Football game, but it was cool as they kept talking while signing bits and pieces for other fans.
Stevie Johnson was also humble, something I wasn't really expecting after some of his 'celebrations' last season including mocking Plaxico Burress, so that was a pleasant surprise too.
All in all, it was a lot of fun and I am just a little disappointed I couldn't go with a buddy of mine when he went to meet Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk earlier in the week.
The picks last week actually showed a small profit when it was all said and done, but I feel I missed out a little there as a couple of late picks screwed the profit, including that horrible call in the Baltimore game.
I'll be updating the season tallies in my Week 9 post, but for now, these are the picks for the NFL Week 8 games:
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I am taking the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I was expecting Trent Richardson not to be playing but it has sounded like he is good to go and that has reduced my keenness on this game. However, San Diego should be able to run the ball effectively and I think they are well rested off the bye.
Second, teams coming off a bye and set as the road favourite usually perform well in that spot.
Third, Cleveland are only 3-6 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the home underdog against non-Divisional opponents. They host Baltimore next week here and may just be focused on concentrating all of their efforts in that one.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Pick: I am going to back the Detroit Lions to win this game and cover the spread and hopefully improve the mood of a city that is watching their Detroit Tigers take a beating in the World Series. I like the Lions for the following reasons:
First, despite the short week, the Lions are a better team than they are showing and their 2-4 record is down to playing 4 road games in my opinion. I expect a much better showing in front of their own fans.
Second, Seattle are not the same team when playing on the road, going 1-3 so far this season, while they are 4-14 against the spread when playing the early game in the Eastern Time Zone.
Third, the Lions are 6-1-3 against the spread as the favourite of 3 points or less in recent seasons.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I really like the Philadelphia Eagles to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Falcons are totally over-rated as they were lucky to beat Oakland, Carolina and Washington in the last three weeks before the bye.
Second, Philadelphia are awesome coming off the bye week under Andy Reid, going 10-3 against the spread in that time.
Third, the Eagles have owned the Falcons in recent seasons, going 7-2 against the spread and they had won 3 in a row before last season when the injury to Michael Vick cost the Eagles the win.
Fourth, there are a couple of really nice trends that I have read: Teams coming off an overtime loss are 38-15 against the spread in their next game when not the road underdog; Road underdogs with a week off following a win are 32-50 against the spread in their next game.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: I like my Miami Dolphins to cover the spread at the least in this one for the following reasons:
First, the New York Jets might be a little over-rated following their performance against the New England Patriots and who isn't to say they left something on the field last week in that heartbreaking overtime loss?
Second, Miami are a fabulous road underdog, going 22-7-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons, including 2-1 this season.
Third, Miami are playing with revenge after an undeserved loss earlier this season, while they had won 3 in a row here before the loss last season.
Fourth, Mark Sanchez was serviceable last weekend, but he will have the pressure on him again this week as the Dolphins have been pretty strong against the run. Miami will also get a lot more pressure in his face and I am looking for key turnovers perhaps leading to a Dolphin outright win.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I am backing another underdog here and taking the Oakland Raiders to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Brady Quinn is taking over as Quarter Back permanently for Kansas City and I don't think he is serviceable as a starting QB... With the Raiders being pretty good against the run, the pressure is on Quinn to win this game and I don't trust him.
Second, the Chiefs stink in the role of the home favourite, going 3-13-1 against the spread over the last five seasons in that role, including 0-8 against the spread against Divisional rivals here as the home favourite.
Third, how about this? Oakland are 16-3 against the spread as the road underdog against Divisional rivals!
Fourth, the Chiefs are also playing on a Thursday night and teams favoured ahead of that new game on the schedule are 1-6 against the spread this season.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the New York Giants, despite having a soft spot for the Cowboys, to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Giants have revenge on their mind from the Week 1 loss and will have Jerry Jones' proclamation that he wants the fans to come and see Dallas 'kick the Giants ass' at home this season, plenty of motivation.
Second, I think the loss of Sean Lee is huge for the Cowboys and he is one of my favourite players for his attitude... His absence means the New York running game could have a lot more success than they did earlier in the season.
Third, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Giants have won all 3 visits to this stadium, although all of those in the underdog spot.
Fourth, the Giants are 17-8 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons, although only 3-4 against Divisional rivals in that spot.
Fifth, I watch a lot of Dallas games and can't help but think that this talented team will find a way to kill themselves- be it penalties, clock management or bad decisions, I just can't shake the fact that they will do something stupid in this one that costs them the game.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Pick: I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to keep within the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, there are just some elite Quarter Backs that shouldn't be considered underdogs too often, especially not by almost a touchdown. Drew Brees is one of those who has led teams to 8-4 against the spread when he is given more than a field goal of points.
Second, Peyton Manning teams are about 50-50 against the spread when trying to cover more than a field goal as the favourite but less than double digits terms of points. Coupled with the Brees stat, it does tend to lead me towards the Saints to cover.
Third, I just think the Saints are playing with a bit of momentum at the moment with back to back wins and that should inspire them to keep it close, but I'll have only a small interest in the game.
MY PICKS: San Diego Chargers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Saturday, 27 October 2012
College Football Week 9 Picks 2012
It has been the most hectic of weeks for me so this post has not been able to be produced any sooner. I will explain further in my NFL Week 8 Picks thread which should be out later on this evening, but for now, these are my College Football Week 9 Picks with my reasoning behind them:
Temple Owls @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: I am going to back the Pittsburgh Panthers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I really feel Pittsburgh are the better team on both sides of the ball and Temple were slightly exposed by the solid Rutgers team last weekend.
Second, the Panthers are 0-2-1 against the spread when playing Conference teams this season, but they are usually pretty solid against Big East opponents, going 16-5 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons.
Third, I do just feel the blowout loss last week has shown the Temple weaknesses and those should be exploited by a team that is as good as Pittsburgh.
This is the only pick from the early games, will be back with picks from 3:30 EST games shortly.
Georgia Bulldogs v Florida Gators Pick: I am taking the Florida Gators to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Gators do seem to be getting better every week and a win here will pretty much secure the SEC East title for them. Florida's demolition of South Carolina would also have built their confidence.
Second, Florida are 8-2 against the spread in neutral field games, although I expect this game to be filled with Gator fans, while Georgia are just 1-5 against the spread in their recent neutral field games.
Third, the Gators have been playing so well recently that they have improved to 6 wins in a row against the spread and they remain one of the few teams that have consistently performed for me this season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: I am backing the Texas Tech Red Raiders to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, Tommy Tuberville has a habit of making his teams play top 5 schools closely, going 5-2 straight up in the past and that cannot be ignored.
Second, before last season when being stopped on downs as they bid to score the tying touchdown, Texas Tech had covered in 6 straight against the Wildcats.
Third, the Red Raiders are 4-2 against the spread as the road underdog under Tuberville, whereas Kansas State are only 5-5 against the spread as the home favourite.
MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Temple Owls @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: I am going to back the Pittsburgh Panthers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I really feel Pittsburgh are the better team on both sides of the ball and Temple were slightly exposed by the solid Rutgers team last weekend.
Second, the Panthers are 0-2-1 against the spread when playing Conference teams this season, but they are usually pretty solid against Big East opponents, going 16-5 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons.
Third, I do just feel the blowout loss last week has shown the Temple weaknesses and those should be exploited by a team that is as good as Pittsburgh.
This is the only pick from the early games, will be back with picks from 3:30 EST games shortly.
Georgia Bulldogs v Florida Gators Pick: I am taking the Florida Gators to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Gators do seem to be getting better every week and a win here will pretty much secure the SEC East title for them. Florida's demolition of South Carolina would also have built their confidence.
Second, Florida are 8-2 against the spread in neutral field games, although I expect this game to be filled with Gator fans, while Georgia are just 1-5 against the spread in their recent neutral field games.
Third, the Gators have been playing so well recently that they have improved to 6 wins in a row against the spread and they remain one of the few teams that have consistently performed for me this season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: I am backing the Texas Tech Red Raiders to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, Tommy Tuberville has a habit of making his teams play top 5 schools closely, going 5-2 straight up in the past and that cannot be ignored.
Second, before last season when being stopped on downs as they bid to score the tying touchdown, Texas Tech had covered in 6 straight against the Wildcats.
Third, the Red Raiders are 4-2 against the spread as the road underdog under Tuberville, whereas Kansas State are only 5-5 against the spread as the home favourite.
MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Friday, 19 October 2012
Weekend Football Picks (October 20-21)
I really don't like the international breaks, so thankfully that is the last one we will be seeing until March next year and we can now get back to the bread and butter of the Premier League and European commitments.
I will now be posting reasons for my picks below, while also taking a look at all the Premier League games on slate with my view on how it will develop and the outcome.
'My Picks' will still be at the bottom of the thread as well as the update on the season and the month.
Manchester United v Stoke City Pick: The international break means Carrington is awful quiet during the last ten days or so and that also means it is tough to know what kind of shape the Manchester United players are going to be in when they return for this Saturday kick off.
With Champions League games coming up during the week, I still anticipate Sir Alex Ferguson to pick a team that is going to get the job done in this one. That doesn't mean Stoke City are to be under-estimated as they have earned points against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool already this season and it also took an 85th minute goal for Chelsea to secure a win over them.
However, Stoke haven't performed that well at Old Trafford and have lost all 4 visits to this ground since returning to the top flight, including 3 defeats by a couple of goals at the least. I expect this will be the fourth time that has happened as United look to pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago at Newcastle United.
I just feel United have too much in the attacking third of the pitch to be kept at bay by Stoke in this one and I'll be looking for a 2-0, 3-0 win for the home side.
Liverpool v Reading Pick: Liverpool are likely to give someone a thumping at some point in the near future as they continue creating chances, but this may not be the week for that as Luis Suarez has been playing in South America and is the only fit striking option for Brendan Rodgers. The travel is surely going to make it tough for Suarez and so that may mean it is tough for Liverpool to get amongst the goals in this one.
Reading are also a team that has shown their capabilities of scoring goals on their travels, managing 2 at Chelsea and Swansea and also scoring 3 goals at Queens Park Rangers in the Capital One Cup and you have to feel if they can get on the scoreboard in this one, they will give themselves an exceptional chance of getting something from the game.
All the recent statistics point to Liverpool being an awfully short favourite, especially considering they have 1 win in 9 League games at Anfield and their lack of goals in front of their own fans has been a trait going back over 12 months.
I'm not quite brave enough to recommend Reading to avoid defeat in this one, but instead feel the + 1.5 Asian Handicap gives enough room to work with as a single goal Liverpool win will still see this pick home.
Fulham v Aston Villa Pick: Fulham have become known for being a very tough prospect at Craven Cottage while being a bit of a soft touch on their travels and that has been much the case again in the early going of this season, despite them earning a decent 2-2 draw at Southampton last time out.
With Dimitar Berbatov likely back in contention, this is the kind of game that Martin Jol would have circled at the start of the season as one where Fulham should be picking up three points. They have proven they have goals in the side with only 3 failures to score here at Craven Cottage under Jol's guidance and it all points to a tough day for Aston Villa.
Villa are still getting used to the ideas that Paul Lambert is trying to implement in the club, but I don't like the fact that Darren Bent can't get into this side as he does provide the goals that are otherwise tough to come by.
The away side do have a pretty solid record at Craven Cottage in recent seasons including a 0-0 draw last season, but I don't think they are as experienced as they were twelve months ago and Fulham should be able to pick up another three points in front of their own fans and erase the memories of their 1-2 loss to Manchester City last time out here.
Norwich City v Arsenal Pick: If Norwich City continue defending in the manner they did in their last two League games, they are going to have a hard time surviving in the Premier League and the last opponents they would want to play are an Arsenal side that have been scoring goals for fun in recent games.
However, the Norwich team have been scoring goals so you would have to imagine that they can penetrate an Arsenal defence that is no longer picking up the clean sheets that had Steve Bould receiving as much praise as he was earlier this season.
I do think Arsenal will win this game, but it is probably best taking them to do so with at least 3 goals scored in this match as the price is much more attractive. They could easily grab 3 goals themselves as they did at West Ham United in their recent away game in the League, while a goal for Norwich is not out of the question either.
A lot of people will be backing the away side this weekend, but short priced favourites are there to bite you on the backside and this represents better value.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: This is a very interesting game for the television cameras on Saturday afternoon and one which will be billed as Andre Villa-Boas against the club that sacked him before winning the Champions League.
Tottenham Hotspur have been playing well of late, but there are still some frailties in their play. However, they are facing a Chelsea side that are missing a key component from the centre of their defence and one that could be caught cold off the back of the international break.
Spurs also seem to raise their game against some of the better teams and I think there is enough about them to think they need to have a small interest this weekend and what looks a big price. The side have the talent to score goals, but they will have to be careful against a Chelsea side that were impressive winners at Arsenal.
If Spurs can get on the front foot early, I think they may be tough to spot and I'll take a small interest in them.
Queens Park Rangers v Everton Pick: This game looks like one that could provide a few goals as both sides will have circled this as a winnable game and I don't think either side will take a step back in the contest.
QPR have been a little unlucky to not have picked up more points so far this season and I think the players are still playing for Mark Hughes so I expect they will push forward in this one. Everton have also conceded goals against Wigan and Southampton recently so they are clearly a side that can be 'got at'.
On the other hand, I expect Everton will also trouble the QPR backline as they have found some chemistry going forward and have players like Nikica Jelavic and Kevin Miralles that can score goals that are created by the likes of Leighton Baines and Steven Pienaar.
The winning team is likely going to have score at least twice and I don't think either will settle for a point in this one so I expect both sides to be pushing forward for much of this game and both defences are likely to set up some chances for the opposition.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Reading + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
QPR-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
October Update: 6-6, + 5 Units (16 Units Staked, 31.3% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
I will now be posting reasons for my picks below, while also taking a look at all the Premier League games on slate with my view on how it will develop and the outcome.
'My Picks' will still be at the bottom of the thread as well as the update on the season and the month.
Manchester United v Stoke City Pick: The international break means Carrington is awful quiet during the last ten days or so and that also means it is tough to know what kind of shape the Manchester United players are going to be in when they return for this Saturday kick off.
With Champions League games coming up during the week, I still anticipate Sir Alex Ferguson to pick a team that is going to get the job done in this one. That doesn't mean Stoke City are to be under-estimated as they have earned points against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool already this season and it also took an 85th minute goal for Chelsea to secure a win over them.
However, Stoke haven't performed that well at Old Trafford and have lost all 4 visits to this ground since returning to the top flight, including 3 defeats by a couple of goals at the least. I expect this will be the fourth time that has happened as United look to pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago at Newcastle United.
I just feel United have too much in the attacking third of the pitch to be kept at bay by Stoke in this one and I'll be looking for a 2-0, 3-0 win for the home side.
Liverpool v Reading Pick: Liverpool are likely to give someone a thumping at some point in the near future as they continue creating chances, but this may not be the week for that as Luis Suarez has been playing in South America and is the only fit striking option for Brendan Rodgers. The travel is surely going to make it tough for Suarez and so that may mean it is tough for Liverpool to get amongst the goals in this one.
Reading are also a team that has shown their capabilities of scoring goals on their travels, managing 2 at Chelsea and Swansea and also scoring 3 goals at Queens Park Rangers in the Capital One Cup and you have to feel if they can get on the scoreboard in this one, they will give themselves an exceptional chance of getting something from the game.
All the recent statistics point to Liverpool being an awfully short favourite, especially considering they have 1 win in 9 League games at Anfield and their lack of goals in front of their own fans has been a trait going back over 12 months.
I'm not quite brave enough to recommend Reading to avoid defeat in this one, but instead feel the + 1.5 Asian Handicap gives enough room to work with as a single goal Liverpool win will still see this pick home.
Fulham v Aston Villa Pick: Fulham have become known for being a very tough prospect at Craven Cottage while being a bit of a soft touch on their travels and that has been much the case again in the early going of this season, despite them earning a decent 2-2 draw at Southampton last time out.
With Dimitar Berbatov likely back in contention, this is the kind of game that Martin Jol would have circled at the start of the season as one where Fulham should be picking up three points. They have proven they have goals in the side with only 3 failures to score here at Craven Cottage under Jol's guidance and it all points to a tough day for Aston Villa.
Villa are still getting used to the ideas that Paul Lambert is trying to implement in the club, but I don't like the fact that Darren Bent can't get into this side as he does provide the goals that are otherwise tough to come by.
The away side do have a pretty solid record at Craven Cottage in recent seasons including a 0-0 draw last season, but I don't think they are as experienced as they were twelve months ago and Fulham should be able to pick up another three points in front of their own fans and erase the memories of their 1-2 loss to Manchester City last time out here.
Norwich City v Arsenal Pick: If Norwich City continue defending in the manner they did in their last two League games, they are going to have a hard time surviving in the Premier League and the last opponents they would want to play are an Arsenal side that have been scoring goals for fun in recent games.
However, the Norwich team have been scoring goals so you would have to imagine that they can penetrate an Arsenal defence that is no longer picking up the clean sheets that had Steve Bould receiving as much praise as he was earlier this season.
I do think Arsenal will win this game, but it is probably best taking them to do so with at least 3 goals scored in this match as the price is much more attractive. They could easily grab 3 goals themselves as they did at West Ham United in their recent away game in the League, while a goal for Norwich is not out of the question either.
A lot of people will be backing the away side this weekend, but short priced favourites are there to bite you on the backside and this represents better value.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: This is a very interesting game for the television cameras on Saturday afternoon and one which will be billed as Andre Villa-Boas against the club that sacked him before winning the Champions League.
Tottenham Hotspur have been playing well of late, but there are still some frailties in their play. However, they are facing a Chelsea side that are missing a key component from the centre of their defence and one that could be caught cold off the back of the international break.
Spurs also seem to raise their game against some of the better teams and I think there is enough about them to think they need to have a small interest this weekend and what looks a big price. The side have the talent to score goals, but they will have to be careful against a Chelsea side that were impressive winners at Arsenal.
If Spurs can get on the front foot early, I think they may be tough to spot and I'll take a small interest in them.
Queens Park Rangers v Everton Pick: This game looks like one that could provide a few goals as both sides will have circled this as a winnable game and I don't think either side will take a step back in the contest.
QPR have been a little unlucky to not have picked up more points so far this season and I think the players are still playing for Mark Hughes so I expect they will push forward in this one. Everton have also conceded goals against Wigan and Southampton recently so they are clearly a side that can be 'got at'.
On the other hand, I expect Everton will also trouble the QPR backline as they have found some chemistry going forward and have players like Nikica Jelavic and Kevin Miralles that can score goals that are created by the likes of Leighton Baines and Steven Pienaar.
The winning team is likely going to have score at least twice and I don't think either will settle for a point in this one so I expect both sides to be pushing forward for much of this game and both defences are likely to set up some chances for the opposition.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Reading + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
QPR-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
October Update: 6-6, + 5 Units (16 Units Staked, 31.3% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Thursday, 18 October 2012
NFL Week 7 Picks 2012
Week 6 Quick Hits
- Is the NFL the craziest League in sports at the moment- there just doesn't seem to be that many outstanding teams and that means we continue to get strange results week after week and we have also seen 'good' teams blow huge leads against 'crappier' teams throughout the first six weeks of the season.
- Can you believe that only 9 teams have a winning record in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season... 'Parity through mediocrity' sounds about right to me.
- So the NFL have announced a second game coming to the UK- the Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers looks a good game on paper, far more appealing than the Jacksonville v San Francisco game also coming over... Now the question is will one game affect the sales of the other?
- When will someone buy Jason Garrett a watch? This is not the first time Dallas have completely messed up clock management at the end of a game and I am afraid that this one cost them the win in Baltimore. They needed to give Dan Bailey at least ten more yards with a timeout in their pocket, but wasted 20 seconds, called a timeout and asked the kicker to hit a field goal, outdoors, from over 50 yards, something he has managed just 50% in his career at Dallas.
- That loss coupled with Philadelphia's defeat means the New York Giants lead the way in the NFC East and they may just be the best team in the NFC after dominating San Francisco.
- Injuries will always take their toll on teams through a season, but the Baltimore Ravens may just have taken one too many and could cost them their place in the SuperBowl as I thought they were the best team in the AFC with the impending return of Terrell Suggs.
- I will admit that I wasn't expecting much from the Miami Dolphins this season, but they have really pulled together and are the joint leaders of the AFC East... In fact, the Dolphins are just a couple of kicks from being 5-1 this season and not 3-3, a real impressive fact considering they have an Offense very much in transition.
- How good was Peyton Manning on Monday night? Or should the question really be how bad are the San Diego Chargers?
- Following on from that, how long does Norv Turner have as Head Coach of the Chargers? Some are even suggesting he will be gone by the time San Diego come off their bye.
- Finally, the Eagles have fired the worst co-ordinator in football as Juan Castillo is gone... Not sure that will fix the turnover problems though.
- How many Offensive Pass Interference calls were there this week? I wonder if this is all following what happened on that infamous Monday night when Golden Tate was allowed to get away with a blatant shove in the Seattle win over Green Bay.
- I wonder if all those 'fans' that cheered Matt Cassell's injury were feeling any better after seeing Brady Quinn on Sunday?
It was a disappointing week for the picks if I am honest, although the New England collapse left me with a losing record rather than a winning one... Up 13 going into the fourth quarter and with the ball on the Seattle 14, I did not see the Patriots collapse coming and it does mean questions for New England, although they are not in the toughest Division in football.
I do feel disappointed with the way the last two weeks have gone, but it has been more bad luck than bad judgements as far as I am concerned (and I am the first to bludgeon my picks when I think they were fundamentally wrong).
Top Ten
1) Baltimore Ravens (5-1): Here for now, but they have a bunch of injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, including Webb and Ray Lewis, and next face Houston on the road.
2) Atlanta Falcons (6-0): The last remaining unbeaten team, but one I really don't trust. They are here on their record, but could have easily lost their last three games.
3) New York Giants (4-2): Might just be the best team in the NFC if they can replicate their form against San Francisco going forward.
4) Chicago Bears (4-1): I know they lost to the Green Bay Packers, but they do look a team capable of winning the NFC North and their loss to the Packers was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested.
5) Houston Texans (5-1): How they react to their beat down from the Green Bay Packers will be very interesting as the Number 1 seed in the AFC could be on the line as they host Baltimore next.
6) Green Bay Packers (3-3): Are they back to their best? I don't know, but if Aaron Rodgers plays as well as he did last week, the Packers are hard to stop.
7) San Francisco 49ers (4-2): Alex Smith was bad on Sunday night and I was stunned by the lack of urgency in the 49ers' performance. Big Divisional game for them on Thursday as they host the Seattle Seahawks.
8) Seattle Seahawks (4-2): They keep winning their home games when it seems they are buried as they come from behind to knock off the Patriots. However, they are 0-2 in the NFC West this season so a loss to San Francisco will hurt massively on Thursday.
9) New England Patriots (3-3): I am not ready to rule the Patriots out, but I am surprised that they have lost a second game this season when holding a big fourth quarter lead.
10) Denver Broncos (3-3): Great comeback from Manning on Monday Night and they don't have too many games where I would consider them the underdog going forward so the AFC West is there for the taking.
Bottom Five
32) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5): I like the Defense here, but the Chiefs just struggle badly Offensively and the beating they took from the Buccaneers was a disappointment going into their bye week.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4): I just don't think this team is progressing and I guess I wouldn't favour them over too many teams on a neutral field.
30) Carolina Panthers (1-4): They are one of the big disappointments of the season and Cam Newton is just not playing well enough as they well off the pace in the NFC South.
29) Oakland Raiders (1-4): Oakland could have pulled the upset on Sunday, but they haven't looked that good this season.
28) Cleveland Browns (1-5): First win of the season after pushing Baltimore and the New York Giants- this is a team moving up and out of the bottom five.
Week 7 Picks
My picks for the Week 7 games will be on this thread over the next couple of days as I decide to lock down the teams I like. My reasons for the picks will be set out below too.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: A big Divisional game will open Week 7 of the NFL on Thursday night and it does look like the spread is a touch high. However, despite saying that, I do like the San Francisco 49ers to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, San Francisco has to be mad with their performance on Sunday night and they usually bounce back effectively in that spot. In fact, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread following a loss under Jim Harbaugh and they are 16-4-1 against the spread following a loss since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Second, the 49ers will want to make a statement against a Divisional rival and they are a solid 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite against an NFC West team since 2008.
Third, Seattle are on a short week here off an emotional win over New England... I still expect them to be focused with their Divisional record at 0-2 so far this season, but it can be tough on a team in what will be a very physical battle in the trenches.
Fourth, it might be a different time, but Jim Harbaugh was 2-1 against Pete Carroll in the College Football ranks (both straight up and against the spread) and improved those to 4-1 in both categories by guiding San Francisco to two wins over Seattle last season.
Did anyone read that statistic that NFC Underdogs are 33-4-1 against the spread so far this season? That's absolutely crazy, but won't stop me going against a few of them today.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I know Carolina have been the trendy pick this week in a lot of places, but I like the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I definitely prefer the Cowboys Offense in this contest and believe they'll be able to move the chains with much more consistency and should be able to score plenty of points as long as they are still not shooting themselves in the foot as they did in Baltimore last week.
Second, the Cowboys have won 4 in a row in the series, including 3 in a row in Charlotte, and they are 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Third, some people are focusing on the fact that Carolina are off a bye, but they were destroyed in this spot last season as the favourites against Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers were brilliant in Houston last week and I think they can back that up with another win here and cover the spread in the process. I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, it won't be easy, but I think the Packers can win the battles in man coverage and that will mean Rodgers could have another big game... On the other hand, St Louis are missing some key Offensive players and may struggle to keep up.
Second, a couple of little trends I like are road favourites playing their third road game in succession are 8-2 against the spread; the Rams fly to London this week for their game with New England and underdogs are 1-4 against the spread ahead of that game in the International series.
Third, the Rams are just 1-5-2 against the spread as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 9.5 points since the beginning of last season including going 1-1-1 this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Are the New Orleans Saints back off the back of one win? I'll be hoping so as I will back them to win today and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the bye should hopefully have got the Saints a little healthier on the Offense and they have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Tampa Bay. No Jimmy Graham is a loss, but the Tampa Bay Defense has struggled to defend the pass and I definitely like Drew Brees over Josh Freeman in what looks like a shoot-out in the making.
Second, as I mentioned above, the Saints are off a bye and they have won in blowout fashion the last 3 seasons in this spot.
Third, Tampa Bay are not a great team when considered the short underdogs, going 4-9-1 against the spread when given 3 or fewer points.
Fourth, the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread as the home underdog since 2009 and they are 1-4 within the Division in that time.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I am going to take the underdog Arizona Cardinals to keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, the line does seem an over-reaction to the absence of Kevin Kolb, especially considering John Skelton was the original starter for this Cardinals team.
Second, I love the idea that favourites are just 1-6 against the spread ahead of a Thursday night game that has been added to the schedule for the first time on a weekly basis... Minnesota play Tampa Bay on Thursday this week.
Third, the Vikings have been a surprise outfit so far this season, but covering 7 points is a big ask against a solid Defense like Arizona and I think the Cardinals can make enough big plays to at least keep this close.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: I am going to have a small interest on the New York Giants to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I know the Giants have Dallas next on slate, but I have no doubt they are going to be focused on this Divisional game having been swept last season by the Redskins and the fact the Giants are already 0-2 in the NFC East this season.
Second, the Giants are usually a terrible home favourite, but again I point to the fact that they will be focused after being beaten twice by Washington last season and they had previously beaten the Redskins 3 times in a row at home, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: I am taking the underdog in this one and backing the Baltimore Ravens to keep this close at the least for the following reasons:
First, I know the Ravens have a couple of big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, but Houston do too and I think Joe Flacco will be able to make some big plays against the banged up Jonathan Joseph.
Second, Baltimore have to be disrespected with the amount of points they are getting in this game and they are 11-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2008.
Third, the Ravens have never lost to the Texans including two wins over them last season.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC East has all four teams locked at 3-3 so this game is for the Division lead. It is a big spread, but I like the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, New England don't like the Jets and I think they will have much more success moving the chains in this one, while I don't trust Mark Sanchez to make enough big plays to keep the Jets close.
Second, the Patriots have beaten the Jets in the last 3 regular season games here and they have scored at least 30 points in each of those games... Will New York score at least 20 to keep within the spread? I have my doubts about their ability to do so as Shonn Greene and the running game won't have as much success as last week.
Third, the Patriots remain a very good team to back off a straight up loss as they are 23-7 against the spread in that spot since 2003, while they are 2-0 in that position this season.
First, San Francisco has to be mad with their performance on Sunday night and they usually bounce back effectively in that spot. In fact, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread following a loss under Jim Harbaugh and they are 16-4-1 against the spread following a loss since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Second, the 49ers will want to make a statement against a Divisional rival and they are a solid 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite against an NFC West team since 2008.
Third, Seattle are on a short week here off an emotional win over New England... I still expect them to be focused with their Divisional record at 0-2 so far this season, but it can be tough on a team in what will be a very physical battle in the trenches.
Fourth, it might be a different time, but Jim Harbaugh was 2-1 against Pete Carroll in the College Football ranks (both straight up and against the spread) and improved those to 4-1 in both categories by guiding San Francisco to two wins over Seattle last season.
Did anyone read that statistic that NFC Underdogs are 33-4-1 against the spread so far this season? That's absolutely crazy, but won't stop me going against a few of them today.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I know Carolina have been the trendy pick this week in a lot of places, but I like the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I definitely prefer the Cowboys Offense in this contest and believe they'll be able to move the chains with much more consistency and should be able to score plenty of points as long as they are still not shooting themselves in the foot as they did in Baltimore last week.
Second, the Cowboys have won 4 in a row in the series, including 3 in a row in Charlotte, and they are 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Third, some people are focusing on the fact that Carolina are off a bye, but they were destroyed in this spot last season as the favourites against Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers were brilliant in Houston last week and I think they can back that up with another win here and cover the spread in the process. I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, it won't be easy, but I think the Packers can win the battles in man coverage and that will mean Rodgers could have another big game... On the other hand, St Louis are missing some key Offensive players and may struggle to keep up.
Second, a couple of little trends I like are road favourites playing their third road game in succession are 8-2 against the spread; the Rams fly to London this week for their game with New England and underdogs are 1-4 against the spread ahead of that game in the International series.
Third, the Rams are just 1-5-2 against the spread as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 9.5 points since the beginning of last season including going 1-1-1 this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Are the New Orleans Saints back off the back of one win? I'll be hoping so as I will back them to win today and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the bye should hopefully have got the Saints a little healthier on the Offense and they have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Tampa Bay. No Jimmy Graham is a loss, but the Tampa Bay Defense has struggled to defend the pass and I definitely like Drew Brees over Josh Freeman in what looks like a shoot-out in the making.
Second, as I mentioned above, the Saints are off a bye and they have won in blowout fashion the last 3 seasons in this spot.
Third, Tampa Bay are not a great team when considered the short underdogs, going 4-9-1 against the spread when given 3 or fewer points.
Fourth, the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread as the home underdog since 2009 and they are 1-4 within the Division in that time.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I am going to take the underdog Arizona Cardinals to keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, the line does seem an over-reaction to the absence of Kevin Kolb, especially considering John Skelton was the original starter for this Cardinals team.
Second, I love the idea that favourites are just 1-6 against the spread ahead of a Thursday night game that has been added to the schedule for the first time on a weekly basis... Minnesota play Tampa Bay on Thursday this week.
Third, the Vikings have been a surprise outfit so far this season, but covering 7 points is a big ask against a solid Defense like Arizona and I think the Cardinals can make enough big plays to at least keep this close.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: I am going to have a small interest on the New York Giants to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I know the Giants have Dallas next on slate, but I have no doubt they are going to be focused on this Divisional game having been swept last season by the Redskins and the fact the Giants are already 0-2 in the NFC East this season.
Second, the Giants are usually a terrible home favourite, but again I point to the fact that they will be focused after being beaten twice by Washington last season and they had previously beaten the Redskins 3 times in a row at home, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: I am taking the underdog in this one and backing the Baltimore Ravens to keep this close at the least for the following reasons:
First, I know the Ravens have a couple of big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, but Houston do too and I think Joe Flacco will be able to make some big plays against the banged up Jonathan Joseph.
Second, Baltimore have to be disrespected with the amount of points they are getting in this game and they are 11-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2008.
Third, the Ravens have never lost to the Texans including two wins over them last season.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC East has all four teams locked at 3-3 so this game is for the Division lead. It is a big spread, but I like the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, New England don't like the Jets and I think they will have much more success moving the chains in this one, while I don't trust Mark Sanchez to make enough big plays to keep the Jets close.
Second, the Patriots have beaten the Jets in the last 3 regular season games here and they have scored at least 30 points in each of those games... Will New York score at least 20 to keep within the spread? I have my doubts about their ability to do so as Shonn Greene and the running game won't have as much success as last week.
Third, the Patriots remain a very good team to back off a straight up loss as they are 23-7 against the spread in that spot since 2003, while they are 2-0 in that position this season.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1 Point @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 24-26, - 11.29 Units
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1 Point @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 24-26, - 11.29 Units
College Football Week 8 Picks 2012
I don't know what to think of this season as I just can't seem to catch a break with teams losing games they have no right to, or resting starters and allowing back door covers.
That kind of sums up my season really and I have had a think about how I was capping games last season when I was fairly successful. The next couple of weeks are key to picking up some momentum as the first two weeks of October have been a mixed bag.
We also are beginning to get a clearer idea of which teams are going to be challenging for the National Championship with the favourite still being Alabama, although I doubt we will see two unbeaten teams in the title game this season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if neither team competing for the National Championship has an unbeaten record.
It's been a frustrating season, but these are the picks for Week 8:
Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: I am going to open Week 8 by taking the Oregon Ducks to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Chip Kelly has been talking about focusing on every game like it's the biggest of the season so I expect them to come out firing off their bye week. Arizona State should be fully focused too, but the fact they have UCLA, a big Division clash, next on the slate has to be taken into consideration.
Second, the Ducks have won 7 in a row in the series, including 4 in a row in Tempe, all coming by at least double-digits.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: I do like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons, although I do think the line is a little too tempting to be true:
First, I think Rutgers are a lot stronger than Temple on both sides of the ball and I don't believe in the Owls as they should have been beaten by Connecticut last week and Rutgers are a better team.
Second, I think Rutgers will be fully focused on this game as they have 'crappy' Kent State next at home so I expect them to put in a full effort to maintain their unbeaten run in the Conference.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I do like the rested Clemson Tigers to come out firing in this one as the ACC Atlantic Division is once again open to them. I like the Tigers to cover for the following reasons:
First, I don't see how the Hokies are going to shut down this powerful Offense while I also don't believe they can put in a big road effort to keep up with Clemson.
Second, Clemson destroyed a better Virginia Tech team twice last season and are off a bye week so should be fully focused and ready to go in this one.
Third, the Tigers seem to do very well against Conference opponents and they are 9-3 against the spread in those games since the beginning of last season.
Fourth, Virginia Tech have lost 4 road games in a row and 3 of them have come by double-digits... The Hokies are also 4-8 against the spread in Conference games since the beginning of last season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: I picked the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend but their Defense fell apart in the fourth quarter. However I also picked against Purdue and I am going to do the same this week and back the Buckeyes to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State have dominated the Boilermakers in Columbus, winning 8 in a row by 22 points per game, and this is a revenge game after they were beaten on the road as favourites last season.
Second, I don't know how the Boilermakers are feeling emotionally following back to back easy losses to Michigan and Wisconsin, while they won't be able to shut down the Buckeyes and will find it hard to keep up with them.
Third, I believe Ohio State will win the turnover battle in this one and the extra possessions may just do enough to see them cover the spread in this one.
BYU Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: I like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to come through this 'trap' game and maintain some momentum by covering the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think Notre Dame are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars, while I think the Fighting Irish Defense will win the turnover battle in this one and that should help them cover the spread.
Second, Notre Dame have hammered BYU in the last two games they have hosted the Cougars, winning by 22.5 points per game in those 2 wins.
Third, the Fighting Irish have made it clear that they are fully focused on this game so all thoughts to the Oklahoma Sooners and a trip to Norman are to be ignored this week.
Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles for the following reasons:
First, Florida State should be able to move the chains however they like in this one as the Hurricanes Defense has struggled on the ground and through the air. On the other hand, the Seminoles strong Defense is going to be meeting either a beat up Quarter Back in Stephen Morris or Ryan Williams making his first start.
Second, the Seminoles have won 3 in a row in Miami including an 28 point lead in their last visit.
Third, the Hurricanes are just giving up too many points so far this season and that is going to lead to problems if Florida State can pin back their ears and attack the Quarter Back.
MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 4 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 18 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 13 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 21 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 23-33-1, - 10.44 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
That kind of sums up my season really and I have had a think about how I was capping games last season when I was fairly successful. The next couple of weeks are key to picking up some momentum as the first two weeks of October have been a mixed bag.
We also are beginning to get a clearer idea of which teams are going to be challenging for the National Championship with the favourite still being Alabama, although I doubt we will see two unbeaten teams in the title game this season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if neither team competing for the National Championship has an unbeaten record.
It's been a frustrating season, but these are the picks for Week 8:
Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: I am going to open Week 8 by taking the Oregon Ducks to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Chip Kelly has been talking about focusing on every game like it's the biggest of the season so I expect them to come out firing off their bye week. Arizona State should be fully focused too, but the fact they have UCLA, a big Division clash, next on the slate has to be taken into consideration.
Second, the Ducks have won 7 in a row in the series, including 4 in a row in Tempe, all coming by at least double-digits.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: I do like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons, although I do think the line is a little too tempting to be true:
First, I think Rutgers are a lot stronger than Temple on both sides of the ball and I don't believe in the Owls as they should have been beaten by Connecticut last week and Rutgers are a better team.
Second, I think Rutgers will be fully focused on this game as they have 'crappy' Kent State next at home so I expect them to put in a full effort to maintain their unbeaten run in the Conference.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I do like the rested Clemson Tigers to come out firing in this one as the ACC Atlantic Division is once again open to them. I like the Tigers to cover for the following reasons:
First, I don't see how the Hokies are going to shut down this powerful Offense while I also don't believe they can put in a big road effort to keep up with Clemson.
Second, Clemson destroyed a better Virginia Tech team twice last season and are off a bye week so should be fully focused and ready to go in this one.
Third, the Tigers seem to do very well against Conference opponents and they are 9-3 against the spread in those games since the beginning of last season.
Fourth, Virginia Tech have lost 4 road games in a row and 3 of them have come by double-digits... The Hokies are also 4-8 against the spread in Conference games since the beginning of last season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: I picked the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend but their Defense fell apart in the fourth quarter. However I also picked against Purdue and I am going to do the same this week and back the Buckeyes to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State have dominated the Boilermakers in Columbus, winning 8 in a row by 22 points per game, and this is a revenge game after they were beaten on the road as favourites last season.
Second, I don't know how the Boilermakers are feeling emotionally following back to back easy losses to Michigan and Wisconsin, while they won't be able to shut down the Buckeyes and will find it hard to keep up with them.
Third, I believe Ohio State will win the turnover battle in this one and the extra possessions may just do enough to see them cover the spread in this one.
BYU Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: I like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to come through this 'trap' game and maintain some momentum by covering the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think Notre Dame are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars, while I think the Fighting Irish Defense will win the turnover battle in this one and that should help them cover the spread.
Second, Notre Dame have hammered BYU in the last two games they have hosted the Cougars, winning by 22.5 points per game in those 2 wins.
Third, the Fighting Irish have made it clear that they are fully focused on this game so all thoughts to the Oklahoma Sooners and a trip to Norman are to be ignored this week.
Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles for the following reasons:
First, Florida State should be able to move the chains however they like in this one as the Hurricanes Defense has struggled on the ground and through the air. On the other hand, the Seminoles strong Defense is going to be meeting either a beat up Quarter Back in Stephen Morris or Ryan Williams making his first start.
Second, the Seminoles have won 3 in a row in Miami including an 28 point lead in their last visit.
Third, the Hurricanes are just giving up too many points so far this season and that is going to lead to problems if Florida State can pin back their ears and attack the Quarter Back.
MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 4 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 18 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 13 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 21 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 23-33-1, - 10.44 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Sunday, 14 October 2012
NFL Week 6 Picks 2012
As I mentioned before, I was down and out for longer than Audley Harrison this week so this thread is much shorter than it is usually.
Last week just plain sucked as it was the second losing week of the season- what really grates on me is that the two losing weeks have seen me punched in the gut heavily, while the three winning weeks have been close wins.
That means I am back to square one, although both Green Bay and Cleveland should not have failed to cover the spread as they both held big leads before falling apart with stupid errors and just crumbling under pressure.
Those two games actually ensured a losing week when it should have been a whole lot better so I am disappointed but not downhearted.
Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I am taking the Atlanta Falcons to put in one more big effort ahead of their bye week and win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Oakland are going to find it really tough to stop Matt Ryan moving the chains through the air as they are just not getting enough pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and will struggle to contain Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. On the other hand, the Oakland Offense has been inconsistent to say the least and it may be a lot of pressure on them to keep up with the Falcons.
Second, there are a couple of trends that go against Oakland here: they are just 5-11 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional rivals since 2008; they are 7-16-1 against the spread against non-Conference rivals in recent games.
Third, Oakland are one of the worst West Coast teams that travel into the Eastern Time Zone, especially for the early 6pm starts and they are 2-6 against the spread in this spot over the last few seasons including a blow-out loss in Miami earlier this season.
Fourth, Atlanta are usually a very solid home favourite and they are 18-8-1 against the spread under Mike Smith in this spot.
Fifth, the Falcons seem to enjoy playing the AFC teams in recent seasons as they are now 17-6 against the spread in that spot, including going 3-0 so far this season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I'm taking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, the Bengals will be fully focused on this Divisional game after being pushed all the way by Cleveland earlier this season and they are 7-1 straight up in the series.
Second, I read this great statistic earlier in the week. Teams that lose a home game as a favourite (Cincinnati lost to Miami last week) are 53-30 against the spread in Divisional games on the road in their next game.
Third, injuries seem to be taking their toll on the Cleveland team and I think they are going to have a hard time getting the Cincinnati Offense off the field in this one. Even the returning Joe Haden may be a little rusty having missed 4 weeks and up against the talented AJ Green.
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Earlier in the week I had set Dallas + 3.5 Points as one of my picks, but that has obviously been seen by many and the line has been dropped. Instead I will play Over 44 Points in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the line is low as I think some are expecting the Dallas Offense to continue struggling, but I believe the bye will have helped them get into some sync, while the return of Phil Costa is not to be ignored.
Second, Baltimore should also be able to have some success moving the ball, although the Dallas Secondary has played well for the most part and the Cowboys Defensive Line has some returning key players like Jay Ratliff.
Third, both Offenses have the capability of the big play with some receivers that can stretch the field, while there is every chance that turnovers can create short fields.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Pick: I am going to have a small play on the Indianapolis Colts with the points in this one for the following reasons:
First, both teams are coming off games where they had to put in a big effort, but it was the Colts that got the W and that should at least keep them on a high and should help them play this game close at the very least.
Second, the Jets can't really afford to lose another game, but they have New England next on deck so there is a chance that they are looking past this 'easy' game which is between that game and the one against Houston last Monday Night.
Third, Mark Sanchez continues to struggle and I don't understand why he would be allowed to give up more than a field goal in any game at the moment.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I am backing the New England Patriots to win this game and silence the 12th Man. I like the Patriots for the following reasons:
First, the Patriots are playing at a very high level at the moment and they are making a point after being disrespected following a loss to Baltimore. They should be able to have more consistent success than the Seattle Offense which has spluttered more often than not.
Second, the Patriots are 9-5 against the spread as the road favourite when playing non-Divisional opponents since 2008.
Third, both teams have Divisional games on deck, but Seattle play on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers and there is a chance that the team begin looking to that game if they fall behind in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I am going to play the points total in this one and I like under 44 points for the following reasons:
First, both Offensive Lines have struggled for different reasons and that should mean plenty of third and longs that will be hard to manage. The Bills will also look to dominate the time of possession with their running game to 'shorten' the game.
Second, Arizona are generally involved in low-scoring games and they have struggled to put points up consistently, while the Defense won't make it easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Offense to put up a lot of points.
Third, barring turnovers being taken back to the house and special team plays, I just don't have faith in either Offense to move the chains consistently.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am going to take the San Franciso 49ers to win and cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, this is a huge revenge spot for the 49ers after they effectively cost themselves a chance at playing in the SuperBowl last season with muffed punts and I think they will want to make a statement of their intentions this season.
Second, the 49ers are 9-0 against the spread as the home favourite in the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and he will have fired up his team after accusations of getting away with a lot from the referees that was suggested by the Giants in the lead up to this game.
Third, the 49ers are 7-2 against the spread as the favourite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
Fourth, the injuries in the New York Giants team on both sides of the ball will be tough to overcome and I just think it will show up here as they lose by 7.
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: I am still convinced that the Green Bay Packers are better than people think, but I'll only have a small interest on them to cover the spread this week for the following reasons:
First, Houston are on a short week here and the Green Bay Packers may feel a little disrespected in the media as some are going so far as to say that they won't even make the Play Offs.
Second, Houston should be focused against one of the better teams in the NFL, but they do have Baltimore next on deck in a game that could be widely important when it comes to the Number 1 seed in the AFC and so their focus may just waver a little.
Third, the injury to Brian Cushing, the leader of the Houston Defense, may see them have a slight dip in terms of fortunes in this game.
Fourth, the Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the road underdog. Despite their loss last week, Green Bay are also 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 against non-Conference teams.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys Over 44 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Arizona Cardinals-Buffalo Bills Under 44 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 21-21, - 6.03 Units
Last week just plain sucked as it was the second losing week of the season- what really grates on me is that the two losing weeks have seen me punched in the gut heavily, while the three winning weeks have been close wins.
That means I am back to square one, although both Green Bay and Cleveland should not have failed to cover the spread as they both held big leads before falling apart with stupid errors and just crumbling under pressure.
Those two games actually ensured a losing week when it should have been a whole lot better so I am disappointed but not downhearted.
Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I am taking the Atlanta Falcons to put in one more big effort ahead of their bye week and win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Oakland are going to find it really tough to stop Matt Ryan moving the chains through the air as they are just not getting enough pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and will struggle to contain Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. On the other hand, the Oakland Offense has been inconsistent to say the least and it may be a lot of pressure on them to keep up with the Falcons.
Second, there are a couple of trends that go against Oakland here: they are just 5-11 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional rivals since 2008; they are 7-16-1 against the spread against non-Conference rivals in recent games.
Third, Oakland are one of the worst West Coast teams that travel into the Eastern Time Zone, especially for the early 6pm starts and they are 2-6 against the spread in this spot over the last few seasons including a blow-out loss in Miami earlier this season.
Fourth, Atlanta are usually a very solid home favourite and they are 18-8-1 against the spread under Mike Smith in this spot.
Fifth, the Falcons seem to enjoy playing the AFC teams in recent seasons as they are now 17-6 against the spread in that spot, including going 3-0 so far this season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I'm taking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, the Bengals will be fully focused on this Divisional game after being pushed all the way by Cleveland earlier this season and they are 7-1 straight up in the series.
Second, I read this great statistic earlier in the week. Teams that lose a home game as a favourite (Cincinnati lost to Miami last week) are 53-30 against the spread in Divisional games on the road in their next game.
Third, injuries seem to be taking their toll on the Cleveland team and I think they are going to have a hard time getting the Cincinnati Offense off the field in this one. Even the returning Joe Haden may be a little rusty having missed 4 weeks and up against the talented AJ Green.
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Earlier in the week I had set Dallas + 3.5 Points as one of my picks, but that has obviously been seen by many and the line has been dropped. Instead I will play Over 44 Points in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the line is low as I think some are expecting the Dallas Offense to continue struggling, but I believe the bye will have helped them get into some sync, while the return of Phil Costa is not to be ignored.
Second, Baltimore should also be able to have some success moving the ball, although the Dallas Secondary has played well for the most part and the Cowboys Defensive Line has some returning key players like Jay Ratliff.
Third, both Offenses have the capability of the big play with some receivers that can stretch the field, while there is every chance that turnovers can create short fields.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Pick: I am going to have a small play on the Indianapolis Colts with the points in this one for the following reasons:
First, both teams are coming off games where they had to put in a big effort, but it was the Colts that got the W and that should at least keep them on a high and should help them play this game close at the very least.
Second, the Jets can't really afford to lose another game, but they have New England next on deck so there is a chance that they are looking past this 'easy' game which is between that game and the one against Houston last Monday Night.
Third, Mark Sanchez continues to struggle and I don't understand why he would be allowed to give up more than a field goal in any game at the moment.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I am backing the New England Patriots to win this game and silence the 12th Man. I like the Patriots for the following reasons:
First, the Patriots are playing at a very high level at the moment and they are making a point after being disrespected following a loss to Baltimore. They should be able to have more consistent success than the Seattle Offense which has spluttered more often than not.
Second, the Patriots are 9-5 against the spread as the road favourite when playing non-Divisional opponents since 2008.
Third, both teams have Divisional games on deck, but Seattle play on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers and there is a chance that the team begin looking to that game if they fall behind in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I am going to play the points total in this one and I like under 44 points for the following reasons:
First, both Offensive Lines have struggled for different reasons and that should mean plenty of third and longs that will be hard to manage. The Bills will also look to dominate the time of possession with their running game to 'shorten' the game.
Second, Arizona are generally involved in low-scoring games and they have struggled to put points up consistently, while the Defense won't make it easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Offense to put up a lot of points.
Third, barring turnovers being taken back to the house and special team plays, I just don't have faith in either Offense to move the chains consistently.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am going to take the San Franciso 49ers to win and cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, this is a huge revenge spot for the 49ers after they effectively cost themselves a chance at playing in the SuperBowl last season with muffed punts and I think they will want to make a statement of their intentions this season.
Second, the 49ers are 9-0 against the spread as the home favourite in the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and he will have fired up his team after accusations of getting away with a lot from the referees that was suggested by the Giants in the lead up to this game.
Third, the 49ers are 7-2 against the spread as the favourite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
Fourth, the injuries in the New York Giants team on both sides of the ball will be tough to overcome and I just think it will show up here as they lose by 7.
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: I am still convinced that the Green Bay Packers are better than people think, but I'll only have a small interest on them to cover the spread this week for the following reasons:
First, Houston are on a short week here and the Green Bay Packers may feel a little disrespected in the media as some are going so far as to say that they won't even make the Play Offs.
Second, Houston should be focused against one of the better teams in the NFL, but they do have Baltimore next on deck in a game that could be widely important when it comes to the Number 1 seed in the AFC and so their focus may just waver a little.
Third, the injury to Brian Cushing, the leader of the Houston Defense, may see them have a slight dip in terms of fortunes in this game.
Fourth, the Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the road underdog. Despite their loss last week, Green Bay are also 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 against non-Conference teams.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys Over 44 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Arizona Cardinals-Buffalo Bills Under 44 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 21-21, - 6.03 Units
Saturday, 13 October 2012
College Football Week 7 Picks 2012
I have spent the best part of this week lying in my bed as a flu completely knocked me out for the first time in two years- it wasn't the usual 'man flu' that we make a big deal out of, it was a coughing, spluttering and physically exhausting illness which meant I didn't feel up to picking up my laptop.
However, that doesn't mean I didn't take a look at the Week 7 games in the NCAA that are taking place on Saturday (I didn't like the midweek games to be honest) and those picks can be found below:
Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I like Wisconsin to win this one outright for the following reasons:
First, I believe the Badgers will have the more consistency moving the chains in the contest and they have looked a little more sure of themselves in the last four weeks when they have won 3 games.
Second, the Badgers have definitely had the better of recent meetings between the schools, winning 6 in a row and also 4 straight visits to Purdue.
Temple Owls @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I am going to take the Huskies to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both Defenses are the stronger units and I imagine this will be a low-scoring game, however I also think the Connecticut pass Offense will have the most success in the game as the Temple Secondary can be hurt through the air and that may be the big difference in the game.
Second, the Huskies are not a great home favourite under Paul Pasqualoni, but this is a Home Coming game for them and Temple may be a little flat after a huge surprise win over South Florida last week.
Third, the Huskies are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 home games against Big East Conference rivals.
Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It's only a matter of time before Notre Dame throw in a terrible game right? Everyone is just waiting for that moment, but I am going to back the Fighting Irish this week to cover the spread and look for their run to continue for another week for these reasons:
First, Stanford have won 3 in a row in this series, but Notre Dame are playing much better football now and will be fully focused on picking up the revenge win here.
Second, the Fighting Irish Defense is playing really well and will feel confident having held Michigan and Michigan State to under 10 points combined, while I feel Notre Dame will be the more consistent Offense as Stanford have struggled to defend the pass.
Third, there is a slight chance that Stanford are looking ahead to the game at California next week which is arguably more important to them as a Conference game now they already have 1 loss on their record this season.
Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: Florida are the one team that have not let me down all season as I am 3-0 when picking their games, so here is hoping they can recover from their big win over LSU last week and back up their credentials in this one. I like the Gators to cover for the following reasons:
First, despite the emotional win for the Gators last week, they should be fully focused on remaining unbeaten against a Conference rival. I am a little worried that this is the weakest game on their schedule in October as every team needs a release, but their momentum is too strong to ignore.
Second, the Gators have a great record in Nashville, winning 10 straight games by an average of 20 points per game.
Third, Vanderbilt are 4-0 as the home underdog since James Franklin took over as Head Coach, but they also are off a big emotional win at Missouri last week, while Florida have shown road toughness in wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers Pick: It will be interesting to see how the LSU Tigers respond to their first defeat of the season, but I am backing them to respond in the best possible way for the following reasons:
First, the Tigers have been dismissed in the media and I just think we may see a big performance from them tonight, especially in a night game in Baton Rouge where they have only ever been beaten once in the Les Miles era.
Second, South Carolina are coming off a huge emotional win against Georgia when they put in the perfect game, but this is another tough test in the middle of a really hard run of three games and they were not so good against Kentucky or Vanderbilt in earlier road tests in the SEC.
Third, it might have been four years ago, but the last time these teams met was the week after LSU had lost to Florida and they bounced back by restricting South Carolina to 39 yards on the ground in a comfortable win.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The Ohio State Buckeyes may not be Bowl eligible this season, but Urban Meyer will want them to complete an unbeaten season and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State are a stronger team on both sides of the ball and they are facing an Indiana team that put in a huge effort in a loss to Michigan State last week and might be a little tough to replicate that effort against a better team.
Second, the Buckeyes have dominated the recent series, winning 8 straight in Indiana by an average of 21 points per game.
Third, as mentioned in my first point, Indiana put in a big effort last week in what was a Home Coming game, and that emotion may have taken something out of them for this game.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ UCF Knights Pick: I am taking the UCF Knights in this one for the following reasons:
First, a quick look at how both teams have performed this season shows that the UCF Knights are better on both sides of the ball.
Second, this is a huge revenge spot for UCF after they failed on a 2 point conversion to win the game in Southern Mississippi last season, while knocking off the reigning Conference USA East Division Champions will be huge for the Knights who want that spot.
Third, Southern Mississippi have been giving up far too many points in their games this season and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games.
Fourth, the Knights are 17-10 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons, going 9-4 against the spread in that spot against Conference opponents.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 21-29, - 8.41 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
However, that doesn't mean I didn't take a look at the Week 7 games in the NCAA that are taking place on Saturday (I didn't like the midweek games to be honest) and those picks can be found below:
Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I like Wisconsin to win this one outright for the following reasons:
First, I believe the Badgers will have the more consistency moving the chains in the contest and they have looked a little more sure of themselves in the last four weeks when they have won 3 games.
Second, the Badgers have definitely had the better of recent meetings between the schools, winning 6 in a row and also 4 straight visits to Purdue.
Temple Owls @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I am going to take the Huskies to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both Defenses are the stronger units and I imagine this will be a low-scoring game, however I also think the Connecticut pass Offense will have the most success in the game as the Temple Secondary can be hurt through the air and that may be the big difference in the game.
Second, the Huskies are not a great home favourite under Paul Pasqualoni, but this is a Home Coming game for them and Temple may be a little flat after a huge surprise win over South Florida last week.
Third, the Huskies are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 home games against Big East Conference rivals.
Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It's only a matter of time before Notre Dame throw in a terrible game right? Everyone is just waiting for that moment, but I am going to back the Fighting Irish this week to cover the spread and look for their run to continue for another week for these reasons:
First, Stanford have won 3 in a row in this series, but Notre Dame are playing much better football now and will be fully focused on picking up the revenge win here.
Second, the Fighting Irish Defense is playing really well and will feel confident having held Michigan and Michigan State to under 10 points combined, while I feel Notre Dame will be the more consistent Offense as Stanford have struggled to defend the pass.
Third, there is a slight chance that Stanford are looking ahead to the game at California next week which is arguably more important to them as a Conference game now they already have 1 loss on their record this season.
Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: Florida are the one team that have not let me down all season as I am 3-0 when picking their games, so here is hoping they can recover from their big win over LSU last week and back up their credentials in this one. I like the Gators to cover for the following reasons:
First, despite the emotional win for the Gators last week, they should be fully focused on remaining unbeaten against a Conference rival. I am a little worried that this is the weakest game on their schedule in October as every team needs a release, but their momentum is too strong to ignore.
Second, the Gators have a great record in Nashville, winning 10 straight games by an average of 20 points per game.
Third, Vanderbilt are 4-0 as the home underdog since James Franklin took over as Head Coach, but they also are off a big emotional win at Missouri last week, while Florida have shown road toughness in wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers Pick: It will be interesting to see how the LSU Tigers respond to their first defeat of the season, but I am backing them to respond in the best possible way for the following reasons:
First, the Tigers have been dismissed in the media and I just think we may see a big performance from them tonight, especially in a night game in Baton Rouge where they have only ever been beaten once in the Les Miles era.
Second, South Carolina are coming off a huge emotional win against Georgia when they put in the perfect game, but this is another tough test in the middle of a really hard run of three games and they were not so good against Kentucky or Vanderbilt in earlier road tests in the SEC.
Third, it might have been four years ago, but the last time these teams met was the week after LSU had lost to Florida and they bounced back by restricting South Carolina to 39 yards on the ground in a comfortable win.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The Ohio State Buckeyes may not be Bowl eligible this season, but Urban Meyer will want them to complete an unbeaten season and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State are a stronger team on both sides of the ball and they are facing an Indiana team that put in a huge effort in a loss to Michigan State last week and might be a little tough to replicate that effort against a better team.
Second, the Buckeyes have dominated the recent series, winning 8 straight in Indiana by an average of 21 points per game.
Third, as mentioned in my first point, Indiana put in a big effort last week in what was a Home Coming game, and that emotion may have taken something out of them for this game.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ UCF Knights Pick: I am taking the UCF Knights in this one for the following reasons:
First, a quick look at how both teams have performed this season shows that the UCF Knights are better on both sides of the ball.
Second, this is a huge revenge spot for UCF after they failed on a 2 point conversion to win the game in Southern Mississippi last season, while knocking off the reigning Conference USA East Division Champions will be huge for the Knights who want that spot.
Third, Southern Mississippi have been giving up far too many points in their games this season and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games.
Fourth, the Knights are 17-10 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons, going 9-4 against the spread in that spot against Conference opponents.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 21-29, - 8.41 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Saturday, 6 October 2012
College Football Week 6 Picks 2012
Uh oh... That was how I felt on Saturday night as it seemed that every team I picked decided to turn the ball over in their own territory and I couldn't find a winner for love nor money.
It's been a totally different 2012 than it was in 2011 and I have had a think this week as to what I have been doing that perhaps has changed my fortunes when it comes to these picks? It might just be a regression to a more normal level of success over a two year period, but we will see how these picks go this week and then take another evaluation and decide what I am doing right/wrong.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats: I like the Bulldogs to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have had a bye week to prepare for this game while the Wildcats are off a tough loss to South Carolina when they led at half time yet still lost by 21 points.
Second, the Bulldogs have been a solid road favourite under Dan Mullen, going 6-2 against the spread in this spot.
Third, Kentucky still are without their starting Quarter Back Maxwell Smith and I just think they are going to have a much tougher time moving the chains in this one and I believe the Bulldogs may just have a good enough Defense to cause turnovers and create extra possessions.
Bowling Green Falcons @ Akron Zips: I will take the Falcons to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, both Offenses have been putting up plenty of points and moving the chains consistently, but the Bowling Green Defense is probably capable of making enough stops to get over the spread in this one.
Second, Bowling Green are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series between the teams.
Third, Akron are just 3-7 against the spread when sat as the home underdog in the last three seasons.
UL Monroe Warhawks @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: This is a closer game than some may imagine, but I do like the ULM Warhawks to win this and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I just feel Middle Tennessee may be a little over-rated after a big win against Georgia Tech last week and I think ULM will have more consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball.
Second, Middle Tennessee are just 2-6 against the spread when set as the home underdog in Rick Stockstill's time at the school.
The early picks are in good shape with two winners already in the bag and ULM Warhawks leading by 14 in the third quarter... Hopefully they can keep up that form to win the game there. Below are the late picks in what has been a late thread all around this week.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Missouri Tigers: I like the Missouri Tigers to win their first SEC game ever and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Vanderbilt have really struggled as the road underdog, going 2-7 against the spread in this spot. That run includes going 2-6 against the spread as the underdog at a SEC rivals home turf.
Second, neither team has been that impress on Offense this season, but the Missouri running game may be the unit with the best match up and that could get them kick-started compared with the Commodores.
Third, this pushing things a little, but I think Missouri may be able to focus fully on this game as they next host Alabama and may not see that as a great chance to win so won't be looking ahead. On the other hand, Vanderbilt will welcome SEC East rivals Florida to Nashville and may just have overlooked the 'crappy' Missouri team.
UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears: My final pick of Week 6 will be taking the UCLA Bruins to cover the spread in this tight game for the following reasons:
First, I think the UCLA Bruins are a high-powered scoring Offense and the California team have been giving up turnovers which could leave them in a tough spot to dig themselves out of.
Second, California are just 1-4 against the spread in their most recent games when they have been set as the home underdog.
Third, I do believe the Bruins are the better team although I am concerned by their 1-11 record at California and the fact that this is homecoming for the Golden Bears.
MY PICKS: Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ULM Warhawks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
It's been a totally different 2012 than it was in 2011 and I have had a think this week as to what I have been doing that perhaps has changed my fortunes when it comes to these picks? It might just be a regression to a more normal level of success over a two year period, but we will see how these picks go this week and then take another evaluation and decide what I am doing right/wrong.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats: I like the Bulldogs to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have had a bye week to prepare for this game while the Wildcats are off a tough loss to South Carolina when they led at half time yet still lost by 21 points.
Second, the Bulldogs have been a solid road favourite under Dan Mullen, going 6-2 against the spread in this spot.
Third, Kentucky still are without their starting Quarter Back Maxwell Smith and I just think they are going to have a much tougher time moving the chains in this one and I believe the Bulldogs may just have a good enough Defense to cause turnovers and create extra possessions.
Bowling Green Falcons @ Akron Zips: I will take the Falcons to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, both Offenses have been putting up plenty of points and moving the chains consistently, but the Bowling Green Defense is probably capable of making enough stops to get over the spread in this one.
Second, Bowling Green are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series between the teams.
Third, Akron are just 3-7 against the spread when sat as the home underdog in the last three seasons.
UL Monroe Warhawks @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: This is a closer game than some may imagine, but I do like the ULM Warhawks to win this and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I just feel Middle Tennessee may be a little over-rated after a big win against Georgia Tech last week and I think ULM will have more consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball.
Second, Middle Tennessee are just 2-6 against the spread when set as the home underdog in Rick Stockstill's time at the school.
The early picks are in good shape with two winners already in the bag and ULM Warhawks leading by 14 in the third quarter... Hopefully they can keep up that form to win the game there. Below are the late picks in what has been a late thread all around this week.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Missouri Tigers: I like the Missouri Tigers to win their first SEC game ever and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Vanderbilt have really struggled as the road underdog, going 2-7 against the spread in this spot. That run includes going 2-6 against the spread as the underdog at a SEC rivals home turf.
Second, neither team has been that impress on Offense this season, but the Missouri running game may be the unit with the best match up and that could get them kick-started compared with the Commodores.
Third, this pushing things a little, but I think Missouri may be able to focus fully on this game as they next host Alabama and may not see that as a great chance to win so won't be looking ahead. On the other hand, Vanderbilt will welcome SEC East rivals Florida to Nashville and may just have overlooked the 'crappy' Missouri team.
UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears: My final pick of Week 6 will be taking the UCLA Bruins to cover the spread in this tight game for the following reasons:
First, I think the UCLA Bruins are a high-powered scoring Offense and the California team have been giving up turnovers which could leave them in a tough spot to dig themselves out of.
Second, California are just 1-4 against the spread in their most recent games when they have been set as the home underdog.
Third, I do believe the Bruins are the better team although I am concerned by their 1-11 record at California and the fact that this is homecoming for the Golden Bears.
MY PICKS: Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ULM Warhawks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekend Football Picks (October 6-7)
I have had the most ridiculously busy week at work so this thread is coming out much later than usual.
Last month was a very good month for the picks, but the start of October has been tough as the Champions League brought a lot of surprise results to the fore.
You can also read my latest United Corner piece here
The picks will hopefully be a lot better this weekend as I will look to put them over the next couple of days for the Saturday and Sunday games.
Manchester City v Sunderland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15557-Manchester-City-v-Sunderland.htm)
West Ham United v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15560-West-Ham-United-v-Arsenal.htm)
Blackpool v Charlton Athletic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15589-Blackpool-v-Charlton-Athletic.htm)
Leeds United v Barnsley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15591-Leeds-United-v-Barnsley.htm)
Southampton v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15561-Southampton-v-Fulham.htm)
Newcastle United v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15588-Newcastle-United-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Manchester City Win and 3/4 Goals Scored @ 2.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Coral (3 Units)
Blackpool Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Leeds United Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Southampton Win/Draw and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
October Update: 2-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Stakes, - 16.6% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Last month was a very good month for the picks, but the start of October has been tough as the Champions League brought a lot of surprise results to the fore.
You can also read my latest United Corner piece here
The picks will hopefully be a lot better this weekend as I will look to put them over the next couple of days for the Saturday and Sunday games.
Manchester City v Sunderland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15557-Manchester-City-v-Sunderland.htm)
West Ham United v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15560-West-Ham-United-v-Arsenal.htm)
Blackpool v Charlton Athletic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15589-Blackpool-v-Charlton-Athletic.htm)
Leeds United v Barnsley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15591-Leeds-United-v-Barnsley.htm)
Southampton v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15561-Southampton-v-Fulham.htm)
Newcastle United v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15588-Newcastle-United-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Manchester City Win and 3/4 Goals Scored @ 2.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Coral (3 Units)
Blackpool Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Leeds United Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Southampton Win/Draw and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
October Update: 2-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Stakes, - 16.6% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Thursday, 4 October 2012
NFL Week 5 Picks 2012
Week 4 Quick Hits
- I'm not going to lie, I wasn't sure about the Miami Dolphins taking Ryan Tannehill with the Number 8 Pick in the Draft last April, but he is making me change my mind with his performances. I'm not suggesting he is the second coming of Dan Marino, but he has look far more poised than expected from a rookie with little talent in the receiving corps and really deserves to have a 3-1 record rather than a 1-3 record.
- The New York Giants could be in a bit of bother now they have dropped to 0-2 within the NFC East and that leaves little room for error down the stretch for the defending SuperBowl Champions.
- The Giants were beaten by Philadelphia on Sunday night and that was the best performance the Eagles have put up this season as the running game was finally dialled more than five times... If the Eagles can maintain that level of performance, and that is a big 'if', they could be the team to beat in the NFC East.
- How many more hits can the New York Jets take this season? After losing Darrelle Revis, Santonio Holmes looks set to miss out for the rest of the season while they have numerous other injury issues and Mark Sanchez looks lost... Set the clock, it's almost Tebow Time in my opinion.
- I have picked up Dez Bryant in numerous fantasy pools this season believing that he was ready for a breakout year... While he is still picking up the points, his performance on Monday Night was not good enough and he is fast approaching a big crossroads in his career. Bryant has all the talent in the World, but he has to start producing now.
- Play Off teams from last season in BIG trouble: New Orleans Saints (0-4) and the Detroit Lions (1-3), the latter mainly because of the Division they are in, the former because they just look horrific on Defense.
- To be honest, the Lions have killed themselves in the early going, becoming the first team to allow a kick off and punt return in back to back games EVER.
- There seems to be something not quite right about the Green Bay Packers and I don't mean Defensively either.
- Now you see what can possibly happen when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are unfairly criticised throughout the week from the media- however, Stephen Gostkowski better not miss another field goal any time soon if he wants to keep his job and place on the roster.
The picks went well in Week 4 as they finished 6-3 and have pulled around the season to a positive with three winning weeks, but one absolutely awful one in Week 1. Hopefully now I will be able to push on and really start pushing things as we get into the second quarter of the season.
My Top Ten
This isn't a Power Ranking, but it isn't solely a personal view either- records are important, but so is my perception of a team.
1) Houston Texans (4-0): Beating down Divisional rivals Tennessee and doing it in dominant fashion keeps them in top spot.
2) San Francisco 49ers (3-1): It was so easy for San Francisco against the Jets last week and they remain the team to beat in the NFC as far as I am concerned.
3) Atlanta Falcons (4-0): They got lucky on Sunday as Carolina should have beaten them, but the NFC South is totally in their control now.
4) Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Will they keep winning close games and how will they handle the short week travelling to Divisional rivals St Louis.
5) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): I thought the game with Cleveland would be closer than the spread suggested, but the Ravens were always in control of that game.
6) New England Patriots (2-2): They crushed Buffalo and have the inside track to the Play Offs in a weak AFC East.
7) Green Bay Packers (2-2): There is something not quite right with the way the Packers are playing, but they found themselves back at 0.500 and should take care of Indianapolis this weekend.
8) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): I have them flying back into my top ten thanks to an impressive win over the Giants on Sunday night and their only loss is to the unbeaten Cardinals.
9) Chicago Bears (3-1): They were very good on Monday night in Dallas, and if they keep creating turnovers, they may just surprise the NFC North.
10) San Diego Chargers (3-1): Impressive performance in knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs on the road after a blowout loss the week before by Atlanta in San Diego.
My Bottom Five
32) Cleveland Browns (0-4): They actually played really well at Baltimore for the most part and were a couple of dropped passes from winning the game.
31) New Orleans Saints (0-4): They say bad teams find a way to lose games they should win... The Saints must be a bad team because the holding call on a potential go-ahead field goal was a terrible mistake.
30) Indianapolis Colts (1-2): Only dropped down my rankings because they didn't play last week and the really unfortunate news about Chuck Pagano... Hopefully the Head Coach is back sooner rather than later.
29) Tennessee Titans (1-3): The lack of effort in a couple of blow-out losses this season has to be disturbing.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): I just noticed that the three of the teams in my bottom five are all in the AFC South, the Division I feel has the best team in the NFL too.
Week 5 Picks
Below are the picks from Week 5 and they will come up at staggered times over the next couple of days as the weeks begin from Thursday and go through until Monday.
Let's hope the recent form continues this week and the following picks can bring in another profit.
Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15545-Arizona-Cardinals-at-St-Louis-Rams.htm)
I have made a decision that I will only put my picks on here from now on so I'll always put my reasons for my selections in the thread... Depending on how it goes, I may just expand that to a quick look at the Offenses and Defenses of teams and give you a breakdown on that front, but that won't be until next week at the earliest and this week will only see my reasons for the picks I have made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I do like the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread in this inter-State game for the following reasons:
First, Philadelphia have just come off an emotionally gruelling game against the New York Giants and this non-Conference game does fall between that win and a game against the Detroit Lions next week so there is a chance that the Eagles are overlooking the Steelers.
Second, Pittsburgh are only 3-2 against the spread coming out of the bye week, but this game is much more important to them than the Eagles as the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are both 3-1 in the Division and there is no way the Steelers will want to fall to 1-3 after this one.
Third, the Steelers have some key men returning on both sides of the ball which should give the crowd and the rest of the team and big boost which they can ride in this game.
Fourth, I do like a couple of trends against Philadelphia; the Eagles are just 1-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing a non-Division game following a Divisional game; Pittsburgh are 8-0-1 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss from the beginning of the 2010 season.
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts: As you can read in my Week 4 Quick Hits above, I do think there is something not quite right with the Green Bay Offense, but I do think they will cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I do feel like a bit of a bastard for thinking this way and using this as my first reason for backing the Indianapolis Colts- Chuck Pegano has unfortunately been diagnosed with leukemia and that means the team are without their Head Coach and I don't believe they will be focused on this game. The Colts might be off a bye, but the players might just be more concerned about their Head Coach, and rightly so, than a non-Conference game against a team as good as the Packers.
Second, Green Bay's Offensive Line has stunk, while the receivers have dropped a number of passes, but the indoor stadium may just help with the speed the Packers have, while Robert Mathis is banged up so Rodgers may just have a bit more time to throw.
Third, the Packers are now 15-5 against the spread against non-Conference teams, going 8-2 against the spread on the road against those teams.
Fourth, Green Bay should be fully concentrated as they trail in the NFC North and won't want to let Chicago increase that lead, while Dom Capers should be able to bamboozle Andrew Luck and perhaps dial up enough different looks to win the turnover battle.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants: I picked the Cleveland Browns to cover against Baltimore last week and I am going to back them to do the same this week against the Giants for the following reasons:
First, the Giants are off an emotional loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and have bigger Conference games ahead so may not be focused on the Browns. On the other hand though, don't ignore the fact that Cleveland are playing Cincinnati next week in a Divisional game, I just think the extra rest for this game may give them the slight edge on that emotional level.
Second, New York have to be one of the worst home favourites to back in the NFL... They are 6-16-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings: I am going to back the underdog to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I think the line looks a little funny considering it was a pick 'em game before the season starts and I still believe Matt Hasselbeck is a capable back up that can come in and perform.
Second, Minnesota are off two big Conference wins so there is every chance that they have overlooked a non-Conference opponent and that might make it closer than some will imagine.
Third, there are a couple of trends that I like which oppose Minnesota in this one; they are 1-4 against the spread as the home favourite since last season; they are 1-6 against the spread as the favourite since last season; they are 2-8 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2010.
Fourth, Tennessee are 21-7-1 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2005.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers: I am going to back the 49ers to take this and cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo are coming in off an emotional loss to the Patriots as they blew a big lead and I struggle to see how they get up for a trip across the nation for a non-Conference game.
Second, San Francisco don't seem to take too many games off under Jim Harbaugh and they are 5-2 against the spread when favoured by more than 3 points under his coaching.
Third, the 49ers have been particularly good at home and have covered the spread in all 8 home games under Harbaugh when they have been favoured to win the game.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints: I promised myself that I would ignore the New Orleans Saints going forward, but I am going to play them this week to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Drew Brees is set to break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games throwing a passing touchdown and that means the building should be loud and the Saints should want to put in a big showing. The presence of Sean Payton, Micky Loomis and Joe Vitt inside the Superdome may also raise the levels for this team.
Second, San Diego may be the perfect opponents as this is a non-Conference game that is sandwiched by Divisional games against Kansas City last week and the big one against Denver next week.
Third, New Orleans are 13-3 against the spread when playing non-Conference teams since the 2008 season and should be able to put everything they have left into winning this game as they have a bye week to follow and know going in at 1-4 will at least give them a little chance to make the Play Offs.
I have made a decision that I will only put my picks on here from now on so I'll always put my reasons for my selections in the thread... Depending on how it goes, I may just expand that to a quick look at the Offenses and Defenses of teams and give you a breakdown on that front, but that won't be until next week at the earliest and this week will only see my reasons for the picks I have made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I do like the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread in this inter-State game for the following reasons:
First, Philadelphia have just come off an emotionally gruelling game against the New York Giants and this non-Conference game does fall between that win and a game against the Detroit Lions next week so there is a chance that the Eagles are overlooking the Steelers.
Second, Pittsburgh are only 3-2 against the spread coming out of the bye week, but this game is much more important to them than the Eagles as the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are both 3-1 in the Division and there is no way the Steelers will want to fall to 1-3 after this one.
Third, the Steelers have some key men returning on both sides of the ball which should give the crowd and the rest of the team and big boost which they can ride in this game.
Fourth, I do like a couple of trends against Philadelphia; the Eagles are just 1-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing a non-Division game following a Divisional game; Pittsburgh are 8-0-1 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss from the beginning of the 2010 season.
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts: As you can read in my Week 4 Quick Hits above, I do think there is something not quite right with the Green Bay Offense, but I do think they will cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I do feel like a bit of a bastard for thinking this way and using this as my first reason for backing the Indianapolis Colts- Chuck Pegano has unfortunately been diagnosed with leukemia and that means the team are without their Head Coach and I don't believe they will be focused on this game. The Colts might be off a bye, but the players might just be more concerned about their Head Coach, and rightly so, than a non-Conference game against a team as good as the Packers.
Second, Green Bay's Offensive Line has stunk, while the receivers have dropped a number of passes, but the indoor stadium may just help with the speed the Packers have, while Robert Mathis is banged up so Rodgers may just have a bit more time to throw.
Third, the Packers are now 15-5 against the spread against non-Conference teams, going 8-2 against the spread on the road against those teams.
Fourth, Green Bay should be fully concentrated as they trail in the NFC North and won't want to let Chicago increase that lead, while Dom Capers should be able to bamboozle Andrew Luck and perhaps dial up enough different looks to win the turnover battle.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants: I picked the Cleveland Browns to cover against Baltimore last week and I am going to back them to do the same this week against the Giants for the following reasons:
First, the Giants are off an emotional loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and have bigger Conference games ahead so may not be focused on the Browns. On the other hand though, don't ignore the fact that Cleveland are playing Cincinnati next week in a Divisional game, I just think the extra rest for this game may give them the slight edge on that emotional level.
Second, New York have to be one of the worst home favourites to back in the NFL... They are 6-16-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings: I am going to back the underdog to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I think the line looks a little funny considering it was a pick 'em game before the season starts and I still believe Matt Hasselbeck is a capable back up that can come in and perform.
Second, Minnesota are off two big Conference wins so there is every chance that they have overlooked a non-Conference opponent and that might make it closer than some will imagine.
Third, there are a couple of trends that I like which oppose Minnesota in this one; they are 1-4 against the spread as the home favourite since last season; they are 1-6 against the spread as the favourite since last season; they are 2-8 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2010.
Fourth, Tennessee are 21-7-1 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2005.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers: I am going to back the 49ers to take this and cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo are coming in off an emotional loss to the Patriots as they blew a big lead and I struggle to see how they get up for a trip across the nation for a non-Conference game.
Second, San Francisco don't seem to take too many games off under Jim Harbaugh and they are 5-2 against the spread when favoured by more than 3 points under his coaching.
Third, the 49ers have been particularly good at home and have covered the spread in all 8 home games under Harbaugh when they have been favoured to win the game.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints: I promised myself that I would ignore the New Orleans Saints going forward, but I am going to play them this week to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Drew Brees is set to break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games throwing a passing touchdown and that means the building should be loud and the Saints should want to put in a big showing. The presence of Sean Payton, Micky Loomis and Joe Vitt inside the Superdome may also raise the levels for this team.
Second, San Diego may be the perfect opponents as this is a non-Conference game that is sandwiched by Divisional games against Kansas City last week and the big one against Denver next week.
Third, New Orleans are 13-3 against the spread when playing non-Conference teams since the 2008 season and should be able to put everything they have left into winning this game as they have a bye week to follow and know going in at 1-4 will at least give them a little chance to make the Play Offs.
MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 19-16, + 0.21 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 19-16, + 0.21 Units
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