Week 4 Quick Hits
- I'm not going to lie, I wasn't sure about the Miami Dolphins taking Ryan Tannehill with the Number 8 Pick in the Draft last April, but he is making me change my mind with his performances. I'm not suggesting he is the second coming of Dan Marino, but he has look far more poised than expected from a rookie with little talent in the receiving corps and really deserves to have a 3-1 record rather than a 1-3 record.
- The New York Giants could be in a bit of bother now they have dropped to 0-2 within the NFC East and that leaves little room for error down the stretch for the defending SuperBowl Champions.
- The Giants were beaten by Philadelphia on Sunday night and that was the best performance the Eagles have put up this season as the running game was finally dialled more than five times... If the Eagles can maintain that level of performance, and that is a big 'if', they could be the team to beat in the NFC East.
- How many more hits can the New York Jets take this season? After losing Darrelle Revis, Santonio Holmes looks set to miss out for the rest of the season while they have numerous other injury issues and Mark Sanchez looks lost... Set the clock, it's almost Tebow Time in my opinion.
- I have picked up Dez Bryant in numerous fantasy pools this season believing that he was ready for a breakout year... While he is still picking up the points, his performance on Monday Night was not good enough and he is fast approaching a big crossroads in his career. Bryant has all the talent in the World, but he has to start producing now.
- Play Off teams from last season in BIG trouble: New Orleans Saints (0-4) and the Detroit Lions (1-3), the latter mainly because of the Division they are in, the former because they just look horrific on Defense.
- To be honest, the Lions have killed themselves in the early going, becoming the first team to allow a kick off and punt return in back to back games EVER.
- There seems to be something not quite right about the Green Bay Packers and I don't mean Defensively either.
- Now you see what can possibly happen when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are unfairly criticised throughout the week from the media- however, Stephen Gostkowski better not miss another field goal any time soon if he wants to keep his job and place on the roster.
The picks went well in Week 4 as they finished 6-3 and have pulled around the season to a positive with three winning weeks, but one absolutely awful one in Week 1. Hopefully now I will be able to push on and really start pushing things as we get into the second quarter of the season.
My Top Ten
This isn't a Power Ranking, but it isn't solely a personal view either- records are important, but so is my perception of a team.
1) Houston Texans (4-0): Beating down Divisional rivals Tennessee and doing it in dominant fashion keeps them in top spot.
2) San Francisco 49ers (3-1): It was so easy for San Francisco against the Jets last week and they remain the team to beat in the NFC as far as I am concerned.
3) Atlanta Falcons (4-0): They got lucky on Sunday as Carolina should have beaten them, but the NFC South is totally in their control now.
4) Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Will they keep winning close games and how will they handle the short week travelling to Divisional rivals St Louis.
5) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): I thought the game with Cleveland would be closer than the spread suggested, but the Ravens were always in control of that game.
6) New England Patriots (2-2): They crushed Buffalo and have the inside track to the Play Offs in a weak AFC East.
7) Green Bay Packers (2-2): There is something not quite right with the way the Packers are playing, but they found themselves back at 0.500 and should take care of Indianapolis this weekend.
8) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): I have them flying back into my top ten thanks to an impressive win over the Giants on Sunday night and their only loss is to the unbeaten Cardinals.
9) Chicago Bears (3-1): They were very good on Monday night in Dallas, and if they keep creating turnovers, they may just surprise the NFC North.
10) San Diego Chargers (3-1): Impressive performance in knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs on the road after a blowout loss the week before by Atlanta in San Diego.
My Bottom Five
32) Cleveland Browns (0-4): They actually played really well at Baltimore for the most part and were a couple of dropped passes from winning the game.
31) New Orleans Saints (0-4): They say bad teams find a way to lose games they should win... The Saints must be a bad team because the holding call on a potential go-ahead field goal was a terrible mistake.
30) Indianapolis Colts (1-2): Only dropped down my rankings because they didn't play last week and the really unfortunate news about Chuck Pagano... Hopefully the Head Coach is back sooner rather than later.
29) Tennessee Titans (1-3): The lack of effort in a couple of blow-out losses this season has to be disturbing.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): I just noticed that the three of the teams in my bottom five are all in the AFC South, the Division I feel has the best team in the NFL too.
Week 5 Picks
Below are the picks from Week 5 and they will come up at staggered times over the next couple of days as the weeks begin from Thursday and go through until Monday.
Let's hope the recent form continues this week and the following picks can bring in another profit.
Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-15545-Arizona-Cardinals-at-St-Louis-Rams.htm)
I have made a decision that I will only put my picks on here from now on so I'll always put my reasons for my selections in the thread... Depending on how it goes, I may just expand that to a quick look at the Offenses and Defenses of teams and give you a breakdown on that front, but that won't be until next week at the earliest and this week will only see my reasons for the picks I have made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I do like the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread in this inter-State game for the following reasons:
First, Philadelphia have just come off an emotionally gruelling game against the New York Giants and this non-Conference game does fall between that win and a game against the Detroit Lions next week so there is a chance that the Eagles are overlooking the Steelers.
Second, Pittsburgh are only 3-2 against the spread coming out of the bye week, but this game is much more important to them than the Eagles as the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are both 3-1 in the Division and there is no way the Steelers will want to fall to 1-3 after this one.
Third, the Steelers have some key men returning on both sides of the ball which should give the crowd and the rest of the team and big boost which they can ride in this game.
Fourth, I do like a couple of trends against Philadelphia; the Eagles are just 1-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing a non-Division game following a Divisional game; Pittsburgh are 8-0-1 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss from the beginning of the 2010 season.
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts: As you can read in my Week 4 Quick Hits above, I do think there is something not quite right with the Green Bay Offense, but I do think they will cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I do feel like a bit of a bastard for thinking this way and using this as my first reason for backing the Indianapolis Colts- Chuck Pegano has unfortunately been diagnosed with leukemia and that means the team are without their Head Coach and I don't believe they will be focused on this game. The Colts might be off a bye, but the players might just be more concerned about their Head Coach, and rightly so, than a non-Conference game against a team as good as the Packers.
Second, Green Bay's Offensive Line has stunk, while the receivers have dropped a number of passes, but the indoor stadium may just help with the speed the Packers have, while Robert Mathis is banged up so Rodgers may just have a bit more time to throw.
Third, the Packers are now 15-5 against the spread against non-Conference teams, going 8-2 against the spread on the road against those teams.
Fourth, Green Bay should be fully concentrated as they trail in the NFC North and won't want to let Chicago increase that lead, while Dom Capers should be able to bamboozle Andrew Luck and perhaps dial up enough different looks to win the turnover battle.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants: I picked the Cleveland Browns to cover against Baltimore last week and I am going to back them to do the same this week against the Giants for the following reasons:
First, the Giants are off an emotional loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and have bigger Conference games ahead so may not be focused on the Browns. On the other hand though, don't ignore the fact that Cleveland are playing Cincinnati next week in a Divisional game, I just think the extra rest for this game may give them the slight edge on that emotional level.
Second, New York have to be one of the worst home favourites to back in the NFL... They are 6-16-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings: I am going to back the underdog to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I think the line looks a little funny considering it was a pick 'em game before the season starts and I still believe Matt Hasselbeck is a capable back up that can come in and perform.
Second, Minnesota are off two big Conference wins so there is every chance that they have overlooked a non-Conference opponent and that might make it closer than some will imagine.
Third, there are a couple of trends that I like which oppose Minnesota in this one; they are 1-4 against the spread as the home favourite since last season; they are 1-6 against the spread as the favourite since last season; they are 2-8 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2010.
Fourth, Tennessee are 21-7-1 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2005.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers: I am going to back the 49ers to take this and cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo are coming in off an emotional loss to the Patriots as they blew a big lead and I struggle to see how they get up for a trip across the nation for a non-Conference game.
Second, San Francisco don't seem to take too many games off under Jim Harbaugh and they are 5-2 against the spread when favoured by more than 3 points under his coaching.
Third, the 49ers have been particularly good at home and have covered the spread in all 8 home games under Harbaugh when they have been favoured to win the game.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints: I promised myself that I would ignore the New Orleans Saints going forward, but I am going to play them this week to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Drew Brees is set to break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games throwing a passing touchdown and that means the building should be loud and the Saints should want to put in a big showing. The presence of Sean Payton, Micky Loomis and Joe Vitt inside the Superdome may also raise the levels for this team.
Second, San Diego may be the perfect opponents as this is a non-Conference game that is sandwiched by Divisional games against Kansas City last week and the big one against Denver next week.
Third, New Orleans are 13-3 against the spread when playing non-Conference teams since the 2008 season and should be able to put everything they have left into winning this game as they have a bye week to follow and know going in at 1-4 will at least give them a little chance to make the Play Offs.
I have made a decision that I will only put my picks on here from now on so I'll always put my reasons for my selections in the thread... Depending on how it goes, I may just expand that to a quick look at the Offenses and Defenses of teams and give you a breakdown on that front, but that won't be until next week at the earliest and this week will only see my reasons for the picks I have made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I do like the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the spread in this inter-State game for the following reasons:
First, Philadelphia have just come off an emotionally gruelling game against the New York Giants and this non-Conference game does fall between that win and a game against the Detroit Lions next week so there is a chance that the Eagles are overlooking the Steelers.
Second, Pittsburgh are only 3-2 against the spread coming out of the bye week, but this game is much more important to them than the Eagles as the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are both 3-1 in the Division and there is no way the Steelers will want to fall to 1-3 after this one.
Third, the Steelers have some key men returning on both sides of the ball which should give the crowd and the rest of the team and big boost which they can ride in this game.
Fourth, I do like a couple of trends against Philadelphia; the Eagles are just 1-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing a non-Division game following a Divisional game; Pittsburgh are 8-0-1 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss from the beginning of the 2010 season.
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts: As you can read in my Week 4 Quick Hits above, I do think there is something not quite right with the Green Bay Offense, but I do think they will cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I do feel like a bit of a bastard for thinking this way and using this as my first reason for backing the Indianapolis Colts- Chuck Pegano has unfortunately been diagnosed with leukemia and that means the team are without their Head Coach and I don't believe they will be focused on this game. The Colts might be off a bye, but the players might just be more concerned about their Head Coach, and rightly so, than a non-Conference game against a team as good as the Packers.
Second, Green Bay's Offensive Line has stunk, while the receivers have dropped a number of passes, but the indoor stadium may just help with the speed the Packers have, while Robert Mathis is banged up so Rodgers may just have a bit more time to throw.
Third, the Packers are now 15-5 against the spread against non-Conference teams, going 8-2 against the spread on the road against those teams.
Fourth, Green Bay should be fully concentrated as they trail in the NFC North and won't want to let Chicago increase that lead, while Dom Capers should be able to bamboozle Andrew Luck and perhaps dial up enough different looks to win the turnover battle.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants: I picked the Cleveland Browns to cover against Baltimore last week and I am going to back them to do the same this week against the Giants for the following reasons:
First, the Giants are off an emotional loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and have bigger Conference games ahead so may not be focused on the Browns. On the other hand though, don't ignore the fact that Cleveland are playing Cincinnati next week in a Divisional game, I just think the extra rest for this game may give them the slight edge on that emotional level.
Second, New York have to be one of the worst home favourites to back in the NFL... They are 6-16-1 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings: I am going to back the underdog to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I think the line looks a little funny considering it was a pick 'em game before the season starts and I still believe Matt Hasselbeck is a capable back up that can come in and perform.
Second, Minnesota are off two big Conference wins so there is every chance that they have overlooked a non-Conference opponent and that might make it closer than some will imagine.
Third, there are a couple of trends that I like which oppose Minnesota in this one; they are 1-4 against the spread as the home favourite since last season; they are 1-6 against the spread as the favourite since last season; they are 2-8 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2010.
Fourth, Tennessee are 21-7-1 against the spread in non-Conference games since 2005.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers: I am going to back the 49ers to take this and cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo are coming in off an emotional loss to the Patriots as they blew a big lead and I struggle to see how they get up for a trip across the nation for a non-Conference game.
Second, San Francisco don't seem to take too many games off under Jim Harbaugh and they are 5-2 against the spread when favoured by more than 3 points under his coaching.
Third, the 49ers have been particularly good at home and have covered the spread in all 8 home games under Harbaugh when they have been favoured to win the game.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints: I promised myself that I would ignore the New Orleans Saints going forward, but I am going to play them this week to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Drew Brees is set to break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games throwing a passing touchdown and that means the building should be loud and the Saints should want to put in a big showing. The presence of Sean Payton, Micky Loomis and Joe Vitt inside the Superdome may also raise the levels for this team.
Second, San Diego may be the perfect opponents as this is a non-Conference game that is sandwiched by Divisional games against Kansas City last week and the big one against Denver next week.
Third, New Orleans are 13-3 against the spread when playing non-Conference teams since the 2008 season and should be able to put everything they have left into winning this game as they have a bye week to follow and know going in at 1-4 will at least give them a little chance to make the Play Offs.
MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 19-16, + 0.21 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 19-16, + 0.21 Units
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