I don't know what to think of this season as I just can't seem to catch a break with teams losing games they have no right to, or resting starters and allowing back door covers.
That kind of sums up my season really and I have had a think about how I was capping games last season when I was fairly successful. The next couple of weeks are key to picking up some momentum as the first two weeks of October have been a mixed bag.
We also are beginning to get a clearer idea of which teams are going to be challenging for the National Championship with the favourite still being Alabama, although I doubt we will see two unbeaten teams in the title game this season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if neither team competing for the National Championship has an unbeaten record.
It's been a frustrating season, but these are the picks for Week 8:
Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: I am going to open Week 8 by taking the Oregon Ducks to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Chip Kelly has been talking about focusing on every game like it's the biggest of the season so I expect them to come out firing off their bye week. Arizona State should be fully focused too, but the fact they have UCLA, a big Division clash, next on the slate has to be taken into consideration.
Second, the Ducks have won 7 in a row in the series, including 4 in a row in Tempe, all coming by at least double-digits.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: I do like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons, although I do think the line is a little too tempting to be true:
First, I think Rutgers are a lot stronger than Temple on both sides of the ball and I don't believe in the Owls as they should have been beaten by Connecticut last week and Rutgers are a better team.
Second, I think Rutgers will be fully focused on this game as they have 'crappy' Kent State next at home so I expect them to put in a full effort to maintain their unbeaten run in the Conference.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers Pick: I do like the rested Clemson Tigers to come out firing in this one as the ACC Atlantic Division is once again open to them. I like the Tigers to cover for the following reasons:
First, I don't see how the Hokies are going to shut down this powerful Offense while I also don't believe they can put in a big road effort to keep up with Clemson.
Second, Clemson destroyed a better Virginia Tech team twice last season and are off a bye week so should be fully focused and ready to go in this one.
Third, the Tigers seem to do very well against Conference opponents and they are 9-3 against the spread in those games since the beginning of last season.
Fourth, Virginia Tech have lost 4 road games in a row and 3 of them have come by double-digits... The Hokies are also 4-8 against the spread in Conference games since the beginning of last season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: I picked the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend but their Defense fell apart in the fourth quarter. However I also picked against Purdue and I am going to do the same this week and back the Buckeyes to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State have dominated the Boilermakers in Columbus, winning 8 in a row by 22 points per game, and this is a revenge game after they were beaten on the road as favourites last season.
Second, I don't know how the Boilermakers are feeling emotionally following back to back easy losses to Michigan and Wisconsin, while they won't be able to shut down the Buckeyes and will find it hard to keep up with them.
Third, I believe Ohio State will win the turnover battle in this one and the extra possessions may just do enough to see them cover the spread in this one.
BYU Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: I like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to come through this 'trap' game and maintain some momentum by covering the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think Notre Dame are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars, while I think the Fighting Irish Defense will win the turnover battle in this one and that should help them cover the spread.
Second, Notre Dame have hammered BYU in the last two games they have hosted the Cougars, winning by 22.5 points per game in those 2 wins.
Third, the Fighting Irish have made it clear that they are fully focused on this game so all thoughts to the Oklahoma Sooners and a trip to Norman are to be ignored this week.
Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: I am going to back the Florida State Seminoles for the following reasons:
First, Florida State should be able to move the chains however they like in this one as the Hurricanes Defense has struggled on the ground and through the air. On the other hand, the Seminoles strong Defense is going to be meeting either a beat up Quarter Back in Stephen Morris or Ryan Williams making his first start.
Second, the Seminoles have won 3 in a row in Miami including an 28 point lead in their last visit.
Third, the Hurricanes are just giving up too many points so far this season and that is going to lead to problems if Florida State can pin back their ears and attack the Quarter Back.
MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 4 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 18 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 13 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 21 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 23-33-1, - 10.44 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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