Week 6 Quick Hits
- Is the NFL the craziest League in sports at the moment- there just doesn't seem to be that many outstanding teams and that means we continue to get strange results week after week and we have also seen 'good' teams blow huge leads against 'crappier' teams throughout the first six weeks of the season.
- Can you believe that only 9 teams have a winning record in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season... 'Parity through mediocrity' sounds about right to me.
- So the NFL have announced a second game coming to the UK- the Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers looks a good game on paper, far more appealing than the Jacksonville v San Francisco game also coming over... Now the question is will one game affect the sales of the other?
- When will someone buy Jason Garrett a watch? This is not the first time Dallas have completely messed up clock management at the end of a game and I am afraid that this one cost them the win in Baltimore. They needed to give Dan Bailey at least ten more yards with a timeout in their pocket, but wasted 20 seconds, called a timeout and asked the kicker to hit a field goal, outdoors, from over 50 yards, something he has managed just 50% in his career at Dallas.
- That loss coupled with Philadelphia's defeat means the New York Giants lead the way in the NFC East and they may just be the best team in the NFC after dominating San Francisco.
- Injuries will always take their toll on teams through a season, but the Baltimore Ravens may just have taken one too many and could cost them their place in the SuperBowl as I thought they were the best team in the AFC with the impending return of Terrell Suggs.
- I will admit that I wasn't expecting much from the Miami Dolphins this season, but they have really pulled together and are the joint leaders of the AFC East... In fact, the Dolphins are just a couple of kicks from being 5-1 this season and not 3-3, a real impressive fact considering they have an Offense very much in transition.
- How good was Peyton Manning on Monday night? Or should the question really be how bad are the San Diego Chargers?
- Following on from that, how long does Norv Turner have as Head Coach of the Chargers? Some are even suggesting he will be gone by the time San Diego come off their bye.
- Finally, the Eagles have fired the worst co-ordinator in football as Juan Castillo is gone... Not sure that will fix the turnover problems though.
- How many Offensive Pass Interference calls were there this week? I wonder if this is all following what happened on that infamous Monday night when Golden Tate was allowed to get away with a blatant shove in the Seattle win over Green Bay.
- I wonder if all those 'fans' that cheered Matt Cassell's injury were feeling any better after seeing Brady Quinn on Sunday?
It was a disappointing week for the picks if I am honest, although the New England collapse left me with a losing record rather than a winning one... Up 13 going into the fourth quarter and with the ball on the Seattle 14, I did not see the Patriots collapse coming and it does mean questions for New England, although they are not in the toughest Division in football.
I do feel disappointed with the way the last two weeks have gone, but it has been more bad luck than bad judgements as far as I am concerned (and I am the first to bludgeon my picks when I think they were fundamentally wrong).
Top Ten
1) Baltimore Ravens (5-1): Here for now, but they have a bunch of injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, including Webb and Ray Lewis, and next face Houston on the road.
2) Atlanta Falcons (6-0): The last remaining unbeaten team, but one I really don't trust. They are here on their record, but could have easily lost their last three games.
3) New York Giants (4-2): Might just be the best team in the NFC if they can replicate their form against San Francisco going forward.
4) Chicago Bears (4-1): I know they lost to the Green Bay Packers, but they do look a team capable of winning the NFC North and their loss to the Packers was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested.
5) Houston Texans (5-1): How they react to their beat down from the Green Bay Packers will be very interesting as the Number 1 seed in the AFC could be on the line as they host Baltimore next.
6) Green Bay Packers (3-3): Are they back to their best? I don't know, but if Aaron Rodgers plays as well as he did last week, the Packers are hard to stop.
7) San Francisco 49ers (4-2): Alex Smith was bad on Sunday night and I was stunned by the lack of urgency in the 49ers' performance. Big Divisional game for them on Thursday as they host the Seattle Seahawks.
8) Seattle Seahawks (4-2): They keep winning their home games when it seems they are buried as they come from behind to knock off the Patriots. However, they are 0-2 in the NFC West this season so a loss to San Francisco will hurt massively on Thursday.
9) New England Patriots (3-3): I am not ready to rule the Patriots out, but I am surprised that they have lost a second game this season when holding a big fourth quarter lead.
10) Denver Broncos (3-3): Great comeback from Manning on Monday Night and they don't have too many games where I would consider them the underdog going forward so the AFC West is there for the taking.
Bottom Five
32) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5): I like the Defense here, but the Chiefs just struggle badly Offensively and the beating they took from the Buccaneers was a disappointment going into their bye week.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4): I just don't think this team is progressing and I guess I wouldn't favour them over too many teams on a neutral field.
30) Carolina Panthers (1-4): They are one of the big disappointments of the season and Cam Newton is just not playing well enough as they well off the pace in the NFC South.
29) Oakland Raiders (1-4): Oakland could have pulled the upset on Sunday, but they haven't looked that good this season.
28) Cleveland Browns (1-5): First win of the season after pushing Baltimore and the New York Giants- this is a team moving up and out of the bottom five.
Week 7 Picks
My picks for the Week 7 games will be on this thread over the next couple of days as I decide to lock down the teams I like. My reasons for the picks will be set out below too.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: A big Divisional game will open Week 7 of the NFL on Thursday night and it does look like the spread is a touch high. However, despite saying that, I do like the San Francisco 49ers to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, San Francisco has to be mad with their performance on Sunday night and they usually bounce back effectively in that spot. In fact, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread following a loss under Jim Harbaugh and they are 16-4-1 against the spread following a loss since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Second, the 49ers will want to make a statement against a Divisional rival and they are a solid 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite against an NFC West team since 2008.
Third, Seattle are on a short week here off an emotional win over New England... I still expect them to be focused with their Divisional record at 0-2 so far this season, but it can be tough on a team in what will be a very physical battle in the trenches.
Fourth, it might be a different time, but Jim Harbaugh was 2-1 against Pete Carroll in the College Football ranks (both straight up and against the spread) and improved those to 4-1 in both categories by guiding San Francisco to two wins over Seattle last season.
Did anyone read that statistic that NFC Underdogs are 33-4-1 against the spread so far this season? That's absolutely crazy, but won't stop me going against a few of them today.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I know Carolina have been the trendy pick this week in a lot of places, but I like the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I definitely prefer the Cowboys Offense in this contest and believe they'll be able to move the chains with much more consistency and should be able to score plenty of points as long as they are still not shooting themselves in the foot as they did in Baltimore last week.
Second, the Cowboys have won 4 in a row in the series, including 3 in a row in Charlotte, and they are 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Third, some people are focusing on the fact that Carolina are off a bye, but they were destroyed in this spot last season as the favourites against Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers were brilliant in Houston last week and I think they can back that up with another win here and cover the spread in the process. I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, it won't be easy, but I think the Packers can win the battles in man coverage and that will mean Rodgers could have another big game... On the other hand, St Louis are missing some key Offensive players and may struggle to keep up.
Second, a couple of little trends I like are road favourites playing their third road game in succession are 8-2 against the spread; the Rams fly to London this week for their game with New England and underdogs are 1-4 against the spread ahead of that game in the International series.
Third, the Rams are just 1-5-2 against the spread as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 9.5 points since the beginning of last season including going 1-1-1 this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Are the New Orleans Saints back off the back of one win? I'll be hoping so as I will back them to win today and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the bye should hopefully have got the Saints a little healthier on the Offense and they have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Tampa Bay. No Jimmy Graham is a loss, but the Tampa Bay Defense has struggled to defend the pass and I definitely like Drew Brees over Josh Freeman in what looks like a shoot-out in the making.
Second, as I mentioned above, the Saints are off a bye and they have won in blowout fashion the last 3 seasons in this spot.
Third, Tampa Bay are not a great team when considered the short underdogs, going 4-9-1 against the spread when given 3 or fewer points.
Fourth, the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread as the home underdog since 2009 and they are 1-4 within the Division in that time.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I am going to take the underdog Arizona Cardinals to keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, the line does seem an over-reaction to the absence of Kevin Kolb, especially considering John Skelton was the original starter for this Cardinals team.
Second, I love the idea that favourites are just 1-6 against the spread ahead of a Thursday night game that has been added to the schedule for the first time on a weekly basis... Minnesota play Tampa Bay on Thursday this week.
Third, the Vikings have been a surprise outfit so far this season, but covering 7 points is a big ask against a solid Defense like Arizona and I think the Cardinals can make enough big plays to at least keep this close.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: I am going to have a small interest on the New York Giants to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I know the Giants have Dallas next on slate, but I have no doubt they are going to be focused on this Divisional game having been swept last season by the Redskins and the fact the Giants are already 0-2 in the NFC East this season.
Second, the Giants are usually a terrible home favourite, but again I point to the fact that they will be focused after being beaten twice by Washington last season and they had previously beaten the Redskins 3 times in a row at home, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: I am taking the underdog in this one and backing the Baltimore Ravens to keep this close at the least for the following reasons:
First, I know the Ravens have a couple of big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, but Houston do too and I think Joe Flacco will be able to make some big plays against the banged up Jonathan Joseph.
Second, Baltimore have to be disrespected with the amount of points they are getting in this game and they are 11-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2008.
Third, the Ravens have never lost to the Texans including two wins over them last season.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC East has all four teams locked at 3-3 so this game is for the Division lead. It is a big spread, but I like the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, New England don't like the Jets and I think they will have much more success moving the chains in this one, while I don't trust Mark Sanchez to make enough big plays to keep the Jets close.
Second, the Patriots have beaten the Jets in the last 3 regular season games here and they have scored at least 30 points in each of those games... Will New York score at least 20 to keep within the spread? I have my doubts about their ability to do so as Shonn Greene and the running game won't have as much success as last week.
Third, the Patriots remain a very good team to back off a straight up loss as they are 23-7 against the spread in that spot since 2003, while they are 2-0 in that position this season.
First, San Francisco has to be mad with their performance on Sunday night and they usually bounce back effectively in that spot. In fact, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread following a loss under Jim Harbaugh and they are 16-4-1 against the spread following a loss since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Second, the 49ers will want to make a statement against a Divisional rival and they are a solid 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite against an NFC West team since 2008.
Third, Seattle are on a short week here off an emotional win over New England... I still expect them to be focused with their Divisional record at 0-2 so far this season, but it can be tough on a team in what will be a very physical battle in the trenches.
Fourth, it might be a different time, but Jim Harbaugh was 2-1 against Pete Carroll in the College Football ranks (both straight up and against the spread) and improved those to 4-1 in both categories by guiding San Francisco to two wins over Seattle last season.
Did anyone read that statistic that NFC Underdogs are 33-4-1 against the spread so far this season? That's absolutely crazy, but won't stop me going against a few of them today.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I know Carolina have been the trendy pick this week in a lot of places, but I like the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I definitely prefer the Cowboys Offense in this contest and believe they'll be able to move the chains with much more consistency and should be able to score plenty of points as long as they are still not shooting themselves in the foot as they did in Baltimore last week.
Second, the Cowboys have won 4 in a row in the series, including 3 in a row in Charlotte, and they are 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Third, some people are focusing on the fact that Carolina are off a bye, but they were destroyed in this spot last season as the favourites against Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers were brilliant in Houston last week and I think they can back that up with another win here and cover the spread in the process. I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, it won't be easy, but I think the Packers can win the battles in man coverage and that will mean Rodgers could have another big game... On the other hand, St Louis are missing some key Offensive players and may struggle to keep up.
Second, a couple of little trends I like are road favourites playing their third road game in succession are 8-2 against the spread; the Rams fly to London this week for their game with New England and underdogs are 1-4 against the spread ahead of that game in the International series.
Third, the Rams are just 1-5-2 against the spread as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 9.5 points since the beginning of last season including going 1-1-1 this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Are the New Orleans Saints back off the back of one win? I'll be hoping so as I will back them to win today and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the bye should hopefully have got the Saints a little healthier on the Offense and they have won 2 of their last 3 visits to Tampa Bay. No Jimmy Graham is a loss, but the Tampa Bay Defense has struggled to defend the pass and I definitely like Drew Brees over Josh Freeman in what looks like a shoot-out in the making.
Second, as I mentioned above, the Saints are off a bye and they have won in blowout fashion the last 3 seasons in this spot.
Third, Tampa Bay are not a great team when considered the short underdogs, going 4-9-1 against the spread when given 3 or fewer points.
Fourth, the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread as the home underdog since 2009 and they are 1-4 within the Division in that time.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I am going to take the underdog Arizona Cardinals to keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, the line does seem an over-reaction to the absence of Kevin Kolb, especially considering John Skelton was the original starter for this Cardinals team.
Second, I love the idea that favourites are just 1-6 against the spread ahead of a Thursday night game that has been added to the schedule for the first time on a weekly basis... Minnesota play Tampa Bay on Thursday this week.
Third, the Vikings have been a surprise outfit so far this season, but covering 7 points is a big ask against a solid Defense like Arizona and I think the Cardinals can make enough big plays to at least keep this close.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: I am going to have a small interest on the New York Giants to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I know the Giants have Dallas next on slate, but I have no doubt they are going to be focused on this Divisional game having been swept last season by the Redskins and the fact the Giants are already 0-2 in the NFC East this season.
Second, the Giants are usually a terrible home favourite, but again I point to the fact that they will be focused after being beaten twice by Washington last season and they had previously beaten the Redskins 3 times in a row at home, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: I am taking the underdog in this one and backing the Baltimore Ravens to keep this close at the least for the following reasons:
First, I know the Ravens have a couple of big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, but Houston do too and I think Joe Flacco will be able to make some big plays against the banged up Jonathan Joseph.
Second, Baltimore have to be disrespected with the amount of points they are getting in this game and they are 11-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2008.
Third, the Ravens have never lost to the Texans including two wins over them last season.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC East has all four teams locked at 3-3 so this game is for the Division lead. It is a big spread, but I like the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, New England don't like the Jets and I think they will have much more success moving the chains in this one, while I don't trust Mark Sanchez to make enough big plays to keep the Jets close.
Second, the Patriots have beaten the Jets in the last 3 regular season games here and they have scored at least 30 points in each of those games... Will New York score at least 20 to keep within the spread? I have my doubts about their ability to do so as Shonn Greene and the running game won't have as much success as last week.
Third, the Patriots remain a very good team to back off a straight up loss as they are 23-7 against the spread in that spot since 2003, while they are 2-0 in that position this season.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1 Point @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 24-26, - 11.29 Units
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1 Point @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 24-26, - 11.29 Units
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