I have spent the best part of this week lying in my bed as a flu completely knocked me out for the first time in two years- it wasn't the usual 'man flu' that we make a big deal out of, it was a coughing, spluttering and physically exhausting illness which meant I didn't feel up to picking up my laptop.
However, that doesn't mean I didn't take a look at the Week 7 games in the NCAA that are taking place on Saturday (I didn't like the midweek games to be honest) and those picks can be found below:
Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: I like Wisconsin to win this one outright for the following reasons:
First, I believe the Badgers will have the more consistency moving the chains in the contest and they have looked a little more sure of themselves in the last four weeks when they have won 3 games.
Second, the Badgers have definitely had the better of recent meetings between the schools, winning 6 in a row and also 4 straight visits to Purdue.
Temple Owls @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: I am going to take the Huskies to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both Defenses are the stronger units and I imagine this will be a low-scoring game, however I also think the Connecticut pass Offense will have the most success in the game as the Temple Secondary can be hurt through the air and that may be the big difference in the game.
Second, the Huskies are not a great home favourite under Paul Pasqualoni, but this is a Home Coming game for them and Temple may be a little flat after a huge surprise win over South Florida last week.
Third, the Huskies are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 home games against Big East Conference rivals.
Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It's only a matter of time before Notre Dame throw in a terrible game right? Everyone is just waiting for that moment, but I am going to back the Fighting Irish this week to cover the spread and look for their run to continue for another week for these reasons:
First, Stanford have won 3 in a row in this series, but Notre Dame are playing much better football now and will be fully focused on picking up the revenge win here.
Second, the Fighting Irish Defense is playing really well and will feel confident having held Michigan and Michigan State to under 10 points combined, while I feel Notre Dame will be the more consistent Offense as Stanford have struggled to defend the pass.
Third, there is a slight chance that Stanford are looking ahead to the game at California next week which is arguably more important to them as a Conference game now they already have 1 loss on their record this season.
Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: Florida are the one team that have not let me down all season as I am 3-0 when picking their games, so here is hoping they can recover from their big win over LSU last week and back up their credentials in this one. I like the Gators to cover for the following reasons:
First, despite the emotional win for the Gators last week, they should be fully focused on remaining unbeaten against a Conference rival. I am a little worried that this is the weakest game on their schedule in October as every team needs a release, but their momentum is too strong to ignore.
Second, the Gators have a great record in Nashville, winning 10 straight games by an average of 20 points per game.
Third, Vanderbilt are 4-0 as the home underdog since James Franklin took over as Head Coach, but they also are off a big emotional win at Missouri last week, while Florida have shown road toughness in wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers Pick: It will be interesting to see how the LSU Tigers respond to their first defeat of the season, but I am backing them to respond in the best possible way for the following reasons:
First, the Tigers have been dismissed in the media and I just think we may see a big performance from them tonight, especially in a night game in Baton Rouge where they have only ever been beaten once in the Les Miles era.
Second, South Carolina are coming off a huge emotional win against Georgia when they put in the perfect game, but this is another tough test in the middle of a really hard run of three games and they were not so good against Kentucky or Vanderbilt in earlier road tests in the SEC.
Third, it might have been four years ago, but the last time these teams met was the week after LSU had lost to Florida and they bounced back by restricting South Carolina to 39 yards on the ground in a comfortable win.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The Ohio State Buckeyes may not be Bowl eligible this season, but Urban Meyer will want them to complete an unbeaten season and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Ohio State are a stronger team on both sides of the ball and they are facing an Indiana team that put in a huge effort in a loss to Michigan State last week and might be a little tough to replicate that effort against a better team.
Second, the Buckeyes have dominated the recent series, winning 8 straight in Indiana by an average of 21 points per game.
Third, as mentioned in my first point, Indiana put in a big effort last week in what was a Home Coming game, and that emotion may have taken something out of them for this game.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ UCF Knights Pick: I am taking the UCF Knights in this one for the following reasons:
First, a quick look at how both teams have performed this season shows that the UCF Knights are better on both sides of the ball.
Second, this is a huge revenge spot for UCF after they failed on a 2 point conversion to win the game in Southern Mississippi last season, while knocking off the reigning Conference USA East Division Champions will be huge for the Knights who want that spot.
Third, Southern Mississippi have been giving up far too many points in their games this season and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games.
Fourth, the Knights are 17-10 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons, going 9-4 against the spread in that spot against Conference opponents.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 21-29, - 8.41 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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