NBA Picks November 2012

I have put this down as November picks despite the season actually starting on October 30th this year, a much different scenario to a year ago when these games were being cancelled and the season eventually began on Christmas Day.

The good news is we won't see the awkward back-to back-to back situation of a season ago which made the regular season almost impossible to negotiate, with most of my best results coming in the Play Offs when the layers were heavily punished.


October 30th
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: Over the last couple of days, everyone should have heard the statistic that the reigning Champions are just 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 seasons in their first game of the new season, but I expect the Heat players would have been focused to make a real statement against the Celtics who are likely their biggest challengers again in the coming year.

The arrival of Ray Allen gives the game added spice, but I think the Heat put a marker down in this one and my first pick of the new season is taking the Heat for a unit- I still have a lot of respect for Doc Rivers and Boston so don't want to go against them heavily in this one.


October 31st
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Denver have revamped their roster in the trade involving Dwight Howard, as have Philadelphia, but I think the Nuggets have more pieces involved here and can win for the 6th time in 8 visits here.

Andre Iguodala will be fired up in front of his former home supporters, and I imagine he will have let his team know the weaknesses that can be exposed, while the absence of Andrew Bynum for the home team is big news.

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I know Danny Granger is out, but the Indiana Pacers are still one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and they did beat Toronto in all 3 meetings last season.

The Raptors will surprise some teams this season as their roster looks decent, but I think the chemistry might be a concern early and that is where I will look for the Pacers to take advantage.

Indiana have won their last 2 visits to Canada and I will look for them to make it a hat-trick tonight.


November 2nd
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Pick: I think the Miami Heat are going to put down another marker in this one for the rest of the Eastern Conference by knocking off the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

There should be a lot of emotion in the building as it is the first game since the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy, but the Heat players love playing at Madison Square Garden.

The Heat are healthier, have the better roster and have are 5-2 against the spread at the Garden in their last 7 visits and I think they improve that in this one.

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers Pick: The Lakers were always going to need a bit of time to gel the new roster together, just remember back to the teething problems Miami had after putting together James, Wade and Bosh.

I think Kobe Bryant will have them fired up tonight against their City rivals, but the Clippers aren't the pushovers of old and I think both teams will push one another.

The overs has been a winner in 5 straight, while 9 of the last 11 would have surpassed the 189.5 total points offered on the game and I think one team breaks 100 points in a close one that could really go either way.

November 4th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Toronto have perhaps been a little unfortunate to not have won one of their opening two games, but I feel they can get off the mark against a Minnesota team missing Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love until next month.

The Raptors should have closed the show against Indiana in their home opener and I think they have a chance against a team they have beaten 8 times in a row and who they hold a 9-2 record against the spread when hosting them.

I'll be looking for a bit more consistency on the offensive side of the ball to get the job done this time.

November 5th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I am taking against the Timberwolves again today as I think a short-handed team could be even more stretched as JJ Barea is expected to miss out with concussion-like symptoms.

The Nets look to have the deeper roster in this game and I think they should still be riding a bit of momentum after winning their opener here and playing a team on the second of back to back nights surely favours Brooklyn.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Both teams have knocked off the LA Lakers in the early going, but I think Dallas playing at home gives them the edge in this game.

The Trail Blazers have struggled to follow up victories in their last few games going back to last season, going just 6-17 against the spread in their next game.

The Mavericks are without Dirk Nowitzki in the early goings, but they are 5-1 straight up against Portland at home, going 4-2 against the spread in those games and I think the Trail Blazers, despite the win in Houston, won't be as effective outside of the Rose Garden.

November 6th
The first thing I want to say here is I cannot believe the way Brooklyn blew up yesterday as they had a 22 point lead in the third quarter and eventually lost the game by 11 which should highlight the complete collapse they had. Fortunately, Dallas made sure it wasn't all bad yesterday to split the picks again.

Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: There is a lot of talk as to whether the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost a bit of chemistry by trading away James Harden right before the season began, but I am of the belief that they have been sloppy in their play and it is the number of turnovers that are hurting them.

Toronto have created a number of turnovers in their opening games and their new look roster looks decent and one that will cause problems, but I just think this is a bad spot for them as they are playing an angry team.

Kevin Martin has been providing points off the bench for Oklahoma City and I think they will settle down as they are too good not to.

The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 home games against Toronto and they are 5-1 against the spread in recent games, while the spread looks low and an over-reaction to recent games.

November 8th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls Pick: This is the first of two nationally televised games and I think the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be too powerful Offensively for the Chicago Bulls to handle.

The Bulls remain a tough Defense, but missing their best player Derrick Rose is going to make it tough for them when they play a team that has so many scoring weapons as the Thunder and I struggle to see how they will keep up.

Oklahoma City have won 2 of their 3 games in Chicago since the franchise moved from Seattle and I think they make it 3 of 4 with too much scoring for the Bulls to keep up.

November 9th
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Only the second time that the Heat will be going on the road this season, but they look worth the call considering Miami have destroyed Atlanta in all 4 games played in this Arena since the 'Big Three' got together. They have covered the spread each time and have won each game by at least 7 points per game.

The Heat will want to erase the memory of their defeat at Madison Square Garden in their only other road game of the season, while I think Atlanta are not as good as they were last season.

Atlanta have had a couple of good wins in a row and that might have convinced the layers to keep the spread as 'low' as I feel it is.

San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Pick: San Antonio were destroyed by the LA Clippers in their last game and this is the first of back to back nights play for the Spurs and all of that has contributed to the spread being at an acceptable level as they travel to Sacramento.

The Kings have lost 8 in a row against San Antonio and have also failed to stay within the spread in 4 in a row at home against the Spurs.

San Antonio are also an impressive 15-1 in their last 16 games when playing the first of back to back nights scheduled, and they are 10-4-1 against the spread in those games.

With their stars being rested down the stretch of the loss to the Clippers, I think the Spurs bounce back in this one and they will be focused now Sacramento have won back to back games.

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The Denver Nuggets finally grabbed their first win of the season and they may be able to take advantage of a Utah Jazz team that continues to struggle on the road and who may be a little flat after putting in a big effort to knock off the LA Lakers in their last game.

The Jazz actually have a decent recent record in Denver, going 3-3 straight up and winning 2 of their last 3 following a 1-7 run.

Both teams are on the front end of back to back nights play but have had differing success in this spot- Utah have lost their last 5 games straight up and are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 in this situation; Denver are 6-2 straight up and are 9-2 against the spread.

November 11th
Atlanta Hawks @ LA Clippers Pick: The Clippers have bounced back with back to back wins since a loss to Cleveland and I think they can take advantage of an Atlanta squad beginning a road trip after a tough game against Miami where they came up a little short.

The Clippers beat the Hawks comfortably last season at home and I think they have too much scoring for them in this one.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Thunder have been beginning to find their rhythm Offensively and I think they may be a little too good for the Cleveland Cavaliers who blew a big lead against Phoenix a couple of nights ago.

Oklahoma City should be focused in front of their own fans, while the Cavaliers could be focusing on an Eastern Conference clash against Brooklyn which is next on slate for them.

The spread being just under double digits makes sense to me as a chance of backing the Thunder.

November 12th
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Heat were blown out yesterday and they have gone 11-4 against the spread when they are coming off a straight up loss of double digits and I think they will be ready to take on the Rockets here.

Houston are still finding their feet with their new roster, but Miami are a very strong Defensive team that will be able to get some control over them in this one.

Miami have won 2 in a row in Houston and I like them to take the W in this one and cover the 5 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Oklahoma City have played a lot of basketball in recent days, but I think they are going to score too many points for Detroit to keep up in this one.

The Pistons have struggled this season as they are not getting enough scoring outside of Greg Monroe and that is tough when coming up against Oklahoma City.

Detroit are just 2-5 against the spread in the series and they may just seen another loss on the slate in this one to fall to 0-8 for the season.

November 13th
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Orlando Magic are really struggling Offensively as they get used to life without Dwight Howard and they have failed to score more than 75 points in their last 3 games.

The Knicks have been very hot from the 3 point range and that should lead them to extending their winning run to the season as they have scored 100 plus points in all of their wins this season, while they have continued playing tough Defense under Mike Woodson from last season.

New York have a 3-1 record against the spread in the last 4 games of the series.

November 14th
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics Pick: I like the Celtics to continue rolling and extend their run to 5 wins from 6 tonight, although they haven't been that good in the first of back to back nights play, going 1-4 in that spot.

However, Boston have dominated the Jazz at home in recent games and they may be catching Utah on an emotional climb down after they won in triple overtime in Toronto on Monday night.

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Atlanta are a veteran squad that may be looking forward to ending their mini road trip and could be caught by a youthful Golden State team that has pushed most of the teams they have played this season.

The Hawks did snap a 2 game losing run last time out, but I just think the young energy of the Warriors will seen them erase memories of falling short against Denver in overtime and recover here.

November 15th
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Knicks have been a pleasant surprise early in the season, but this is the toughest road test they will have faced and I think the Spurs are going to be focused enough to end the last unbeaten run in the NBA.

San Antonio have won 9 in a row against New York, including 8 of those by at least 9 points, so I like them covering the spread in this one.

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Both of these sides have Offensive power and I like them combining to surpass the 202 total points mark.

3 of their last 4 games has seen both teams hit at least 100 points and they were involved in a barn stormer earlier this season. Denver are rightly the favourites, but I don't like under-estimating the Heat and I like the over total points in this one.





MY PICKS: 30/10 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/10 Denver Nuggets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
31/10 Indiana Pacers - 2 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
02/11 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/11 LA Lakers-LA Clippers Over 189.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
04/11 Toronto Raptors - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/11 Brooklyn Nets - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/11 Dallas Mavericks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
06/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/11 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/11 San Antonio Spurs - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
09/11 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
11/11 LA Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
11/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
12/11 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
13/11 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
14/11 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/11 Golden State Warriors - 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/11 San Antonio Spurs - 5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 Denver Nuggets-Miami Heat Over 201.5 Total Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)


November Update: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units


Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units