NFL Week 8 Picks 2012

So as I mentioned, it has been a really busy week with work and things, but I did have a really cool moment this week too as I met Marcel Dareus, Kelvin Sheppard and Stevie Johnson of the Buffalo Bills.

Don't get me wrong, being a Dolphins fan means the Bills are not high on my list, but I loved Dareus at Alabama and it's always nice getting the opportunity to speak to these guys that play the game we love.

It was also cool getting Dareus and Sheppard involved in a mock argument about the LSU-Alabama game next month... I think it was a little surprise to them that someone was talking to them about the College Football game, but it was cool as they kept talking while signing bits and pieces for other fans.

Stevie Johnson was also humble, something I wasn't really expecting after some of his 'celebrations' last season including mocking Plaxico Burress, so that was a pleasant surprise too.


All in all, it was a lot of fun and I am just a little disappointed I couldn't go with a buddy of mine when he went to meet Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk earlier in the week.


The picks last week actually showed a small profit when it was all said and done, but I feel I missed out a little there as a couple of late picks screwed the profit, including that horrible call in the Baltimore game.

I'll be updating the season tallies in my Week 9 post, but for now, these are the picks for the NFL Week 8 games:


San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I am taking the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I was expecting Trent Richardson not to be playing but it has sounded like he is good to go and that has reduced my keenness on this game. However, San Diego should be able to run the ball effectively and I think they are well rested off the bye.

Second, teams coming off a bye and set as the road favourite usually perform well in that spot.

Third, Cleveland are only 3-6 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the home underdog against non-Divisional opponents. They host Baltimore next week here and may just be focused on concentrating all of their efforts in that one.


Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Pick: I am going to back the Detroit Lions to win this game and cover the spread and hopefully improve the mood of a city that is watching their Detroit Tigers take a beating in the World Series. I like the Lions for the following reasons:

First, despite the short week, the Lions are a better team than they are showing and their 2-4 record is down to playing 4 road games in my opinion. I expect a much better showing in front of their own fans.

Second, Seattle are not the same team when playing on the road, going 1-3 so far this season, while they are 4-14 against the spread when playing the early game in the Eastern Time Zone.

Third, the Lions are 6-1-3 against the spread as the favourite of 3 points or less in recent seasons.


Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I really like the Philadelphia Eagles to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think the Falcons are totally over-rated as they were lucky to beat Oakland, Carolina and Washington in the last three weeks before the bye.

Second, Philadelphia are awesome coming off the bye week under Andy Reid, going 10-3 against the spread in that time.

Third, the Eagles have owned the Falcons in recent seasons, going 7-2 against the spread and they had won 3 in a row before last season when the injury to Michael Vick cost the Eagles the win.

Fourth, there are a couple of really nice trends that I have read: Teams coming off an overtime loss are 38-15 against the spread in their next game when not the road underdog; Road underdogs with a week off following a win are 32-50 against the spread in their next game.


Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: I like my Miami Dolphins to cover the spread at the least in this one for the following reasons:

First, the New York Jets might be a little over-rated following their performance against the New England Patriots and who isn't to say they left something on the field last week in that heartbreaking overtime loss?

Second, Miami are a fabulous road underdog, going 22-7-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons, including 2-1 this season.

Third, Miami are playing with revenge after an undeserved loss earlier this season, while they had won 3 in a row here before the loss last season.

Fourth, Mark Sanchez was serviceable last weekend, but he will have the pressure on him again this week as the Dolphins have been pretty strong against the run. Miami will also get a lot more pressure in his face and I am looking for key turnovers perhaps leading to a Dolphin outright win.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I am backing another underdog here and taking the Oakland Raiders to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Brady Quinn is taking over as Quarter Back permanently for Kansas City and I don't think he is serviceable as a starting QB... With the Raiders being pretty good against the run, the pressure is on Quinn to win this game and I don't trust him.

Second, the Chiefs stink in the role of the home favourite, going 3-13-1 against the spread over the last five seasons in that role, including 0-8 against the spread against Divisional rivals here as the home favourite.

Third, how about this? Oakland are 16-3 against the spread as the road underdog against Divisional rivals!

Fourth, the Chiefs are also playing on a Thursday night and teams favoured ahead of that new game on the schedule are 1-6 against the spread this season.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I like the New York Giants, despite having a soft spot for the Cowboys, to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Giants have revenge on their mind from the Week 1 loss and will have Jerry Jones' proclamation that he wants the fans to come and see Dallas 'kick the Giants ass' at home this season, plenty of motivation.

Second, I think the loss of Sean Lee is huge for the Cowboys and he is one of my favourite players for his attitude... His absence means the New York running game could have a lot more success than they did earlier in the season.

Third, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Giants have won all 3 visits to this stadium, although all of those in the underdog spot.

Fourth, the Giants are 17-8 against the spread as the road favourite in the last few seasons, although only 3-4 against Divisional rivals in that spot.

Fifth, I watch a lot of Dallas games and can't help but think that this talented team will find a way to kill themselves- be it penalties, clock management or bad decisions, I just can't shake the fact that they will do something stupid in this one that costs them the game.


New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Pick: I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to keep within the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, there are just some elite Quarter Backs that shouldn't be considered underdogs too often, especially not by almost a touchdown. Drew Brees is one of those who has led teams to 8-4 against the spread when he is given more than a field goal of points.

Second, Peyton Manning teams are about 50-50 against the spread when trying to cover more than a field goal as the favourite but less than double digits terms of points. Coupled with the Brees stat, it does tend to lead me towards the Saints to cover.

Third, I just think the Saints are playing with a bit of momentum at the moment with back to back wins and that should inspire them to keep it close, but I'll have only a small interest in the game.


MY PICKS: San Diego Chargers - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)