Uh oh... That was how I felt on Saturday night as it seemed that every team I picked decided to turn the ball over in their own territory and I couldn't find a winner for love nor money.
It's been a totally different 2012 than it was in 2011 and I have had a think this week as to what I have been doing that perhaps has changed my fortunes when it comes to these picks? It might just be a regression to a more normal level of success over a two year period, but we will see how these picks go this week and then take another evaluation and decide what I am doing right/wrong.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats: I like the Bulldogs to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have had a bye week to prepare for this game while the Wildcats are off a tough loss to South Carolina when they led at half time yet still lost by 21 points.
Second, the Bulldogs have been a solid road favourite under Dan Mullen, going 6-2 against the spread in this spot.
Third, Kentucky still are without their starting Quarter Back Maxwell Smith and I just think they are going to have a much tougher time moving the chains in this one and I believe the Bulldogs may just have a good enough Defense to cause turnovers and create extra possessions.
Bowling Green Falcons @ Akron Zips: I will take the Falcons to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, both Offenses have been putting up plenty of points and moving the chains consistently, but the Bowling Green Defense is probably capable of making enough stops to get over the spread in this one.
Second, Bowling Green are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series between the teams.
Third, Akron are just 3-7 against the spread when sat as the home underdog in the last three seasons.
UL Monroe Warhawks @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: This is a closer game than some may imagine, but I do like the ULM Warhawks to win this and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I just feel Middle Tennessee may be a little over-rated after a big win against Georgia Tech last week and I think ULM will have more consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball.
Second, Middle Tennessee are just 2-6 against the spread when set as the home underdog in Rick Stockstill's time at the school.
The early picks are in good shape with two winners already in the bag and ULM Warhawks leading by 14 in the third quarter... Hopefully they can keep up that form to win the game there. Below are the late picks in what has been a late thread all around this week.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Missouri Tigers: I like the Missouri Tigers to win their first SEC game ever and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Vanderbilt have really struggled as the road underdog, going 2-7 against the spread in this spot. That run includes going 2-6 against the spread as the underdog at a SEC rivals home turf.
Second, neither team has been that impress on Offense this season, but the Missouri running game may be the unit with the best match up and that could get them kick-started compared with the Commodores.
Third, this pushing things a little, but I think Missouri may be able to focus fully on this game as they next host Alabama and may not see that as a great chance to win so won't be looking ahead. On the other hand, Vanderbilt will welcome SEC East rivals Florida to Nashville and may just have overlooked the 'crappy' Missouri team.
UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears: My final pick of Week 6 will be taking the UCLA Bruins to cover the spread in this tight game for the following reasons:
First, I think the UCLA Bruins are a high-powered scoring Offense and the California team have been giving up turnovers which could leave them in a tough spot to dig themselves out of.
Second, California are just 1-4 against the spread in their most recent games when they have been set as the home underdog.
Third, I do believe the Bruins are the better team although I am concerned by their 1-11 record at California and the fact that this is homecoming for the Golden Bears.
MY PICKS: Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bowling Green Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ULM Warhawks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
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