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Friday 19 October 2012

Weekend Football Picks (October 20-21)

I really don't like the international breaks, so thankfully that is the last one we will be seeing until March next year and we can now get back to the bread and butter of the Premier League and European commitments.

I will now be posting reasons for my picks below, while also taking a look at all the Premier League games on slate with my view on how it will develop and the outcome.

'My Picks' will still be at the bottom of the thread as well as the update on the season and the month.


Manchester United v Stoke City Pick: The international break means Carrington is awful quiet during the last ten days or so and that also means it is tough to know what kind of shape the Manchester United players are going to be in when they return for this Saturday kick off.

With Champions League games coming up during the week, I still anticipate Sir Alex Ferguson to pick a team that is going to get the job done in this one. That doesn't mean Stoke City are to be under-estimated as they have earned points against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool already this season and it also took an 85th minute goal for Chelsea to secure a win over them.

However, Stoke haven't performed that well at Old Trafford and have lost all 4 visits to this ground since returning to the top flight, including 3 defeats by a couple of goals at the least. I expect this will be the fourth time that has happened as United look to pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago at Newcastle United.

I just feel United have too much in the attacking third of the pitch to be kept at bay by Stoke in this one and I'll be looking for a 2-0, 3-0 win for the home side.


Liverpool v Reading Pick: Liverpool are likely to give someone a thumping at some point in the near future as they continue creating chances, but this may not be the week for that as Luis Suarez has been playing in South America and is the only fit striking option for Brendan Rodgers. The travel is surely going to make it tough for Suarez and so that may mean it is tough for Liverpool to get amongst the goals in this one.

Reading are also a team that has shown their capabilities of scoring goals on their travels, managing 2 at Chelsea and Swansea and also scoring 3 goals at Queens Park Rangers in the Capital One Cup and you have to feel if they can get on the scoreboard in this one, they will give themselves an exceptional chance of getting something from the game.

All the recent statistics point to Liverpool being an awfully short favourite, especially considering they have 1 win in 9 League games at Anfield and their lack of goals in front of their own fans has been a trait going back over 12 months.

I'm not quite brave enough to recommend Reading to avoid defeat in this one, but instead feel the + 1.5 Asian Handicap gives enough room to work with as a single goal Liverpool win will still see this pick home.


Fulham v Aston Villa Pick: Fulham have become known for being a very tough prospect at Craven Cottage while being a bit of a soft touch on their travels and that has been much the case again in the early going of this season, despite them earning a decent 2-2 draw at Southampton last time out.

With Dimitar Berbatov likely back in contention, this is the kind of game that Martin Jol would have circled at the start of the season as one where Fulham should be picking up three points. They have proven they have goals in the side with only 3 failures to score here at Craven Cottage under Jol's guidance and it all points to a tough day for Aston Villa.

Villa are still getting used to the ideas that Paul Lambert is trying to implement in the club, but I don't like the fact that Darren Bent can't get into this side as he does provide the goals that are otherwise tough to come by.


The away side do have a pretty solid record at Craven Cottage in recent seasons including a 0-0 draw last season, but I don't think they are as experienced as they were twelve months ago and Fulham should be able to pick up another three points in front of their own fans and erase the memories of their 1-2 loss to Manchester City last time out here.


Norwich City v Arsenal Pick: If Norwich City continue defending in the manner they did in their last two League games, they are going to have a hard time surviving in the Premier League and the last opponents they would want to play are an Arsenal side that have been scoring goals for fun in recent games.

However, the Norwich team have been scoring goals so you would have to imagine that they can penetrate an Arsenal defence that is no longer picking up the clean sheets that had Steve Bould receiving as much praise as he was earlier this season.

I do think Arsenal will win this game, but it is probably best taking them to do so with at least 3 goals scored in this match as the price is much more attractive. They could easily grab 3 goals themselves as they did at West Ham United in their recent away game in the League, while a goal for Norwich is not out of the question either.

A lot of people will be backing the away side this weekend, but short priced favourites are there to bite you on the backside and this represents better value.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: This is a very interesting game for the television cameras on Saturday afternoon and one which will be billed as Andre Villa-Boas against the club that sacked him before winning the Champions League.

Tottenham Hotspur have been playing well of late, but there are still some frailties in their play. However, they are facing a Chelsea side that are missing a key component from the centre of their defence and one that could be caught cold off the back of the international break.

Spurs also seem to raise their game against some of the better teams and I think there is enough about them to think they need to have a small interest this weekend and what looks a big price. The side have the talent to score goals, but they will have to be careful against a Chelsea side that were impressive winners at Arsenal.

If Spurs can get on the front foot early, I think they may be tough to spot and I'll take a small interest in them.



Queens Park Rangers v Everton Pick: This game looks like one that could provide a few goals as both sides will have circled this as a winnable game and I don't think either side will take a step back in the contest.

QPR have been a little unlucky to not have picked up more points so far this season and I think the players are still playing for Mark Hughes so I expect they will push forward in this one. Everton have also conceded goals against Wigan and Southampton recently so they are clearly a side that can be 'got at'.

On the other hand, I expect Everton will also trouble the QPR backline as they have found some chemistry going forward and have players like Nikica Jelavic and Kevin Miralles that can score goals that are created by the likes of Leighton Baines and Steven Pienaar.

The winning team is likely going to have score at least twice and I don't think either will settle for a point in this one so I expect both sides to be pushing forward for much of this game and both defences are likely to set up some chances for the opposition.


MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Reading + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
QPR-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)




October Update6-6, + 5 Units (16 Units Staked, 31.3% Yield)

September Final17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

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