As I mentioned before, I was down and out for longer than Audley Harrison this week so this thread is much shorter than it is usually.
Last week just plain sucked as it was the second losing week of the season- what really grates on me is that the two losing weeks have seen me punched in the gut heavily, while the three winning weeks have been close wins.
That means I am back to square one, although both Green Bay and Cleveland should not have failed to cover the spread as they both held big leads before falling apart with stupid errors and just crumbling under pressure.
Those two games actually ensured a losing week when it should have been a whole lot better so I am disappointed but not downhearted.
Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I am taking the Atlanta Falcons to put in one more big effort ahead of their bye week and win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Oakland are going to find it really tough to stop Matt Ryan moving the chains through the air as they are just not getting enough pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and will struggle to contain Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. On the other hand, the Oakland Offense has been inconsistent to say the least and it may be a lot of pressure on them to keep up with the Falcons.
Second, there are a couple of trends that go against Oakland here: they are just 5-11 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional rivals since 2008; they are 7-16-1 against the spread against non-Conference rivals in recent games.
Third, Oakland are one of the worst West Coast teams that travel into the Eastern Time Zone, especially for the early 6pm starts and they are 2-6 against the spread in this spot over the last few seasons including a blow-out loss in Miami earlier this season.
Fourth, Atlanta are usually a very solid home favourite and they are 18-8-1 against the spread under Mike Smith in this spot.
Fifth, the Falcons seem to enjoy playing the AFC teams in recent seasons as they are now 17-6 against the spread in that spot, including going 3-0 so far this season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I'm taking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, the Bengals will be fully focused on this Divisional game after being pushed all the way by Cleveland earlier this season and they are 7-1 straight up in the series.
Second, I read this great statistic earlier in the week. Teams that lose a home game as a favourite (Cincinnati lost to Miami last week) are 53-30 against the spread in Divisional games on the road in their next game.
Third, injuries seem to be taking their toll on the Cleveland team and I think they are going to have a hard time getting the Cincinnati Offense off the field in this one. Even the returning Joe Haden may be a little rusty having missed 4 weeks and up against the talented AJ Green.
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Earlier in the week I had set Dallas + 3.5 Points as one of my picks, but that has obviously been seen by many and the line has been dropped. Instead I will play Over 44 Points in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the line is low as I think some are expecting the Dallas Offense to continue struggling, but I believe the bye will have helped them get into some sync, while the return of Phil Costa is not to be ignored.
Second, Baltimore should also be able to have some success moving the ball, although the Dallas Secondary has played well for the most part and the Cowboys Defensive Line has some returning key players like Jay Ratliff.
Third, both Offenses have the capability of the big play with some receivers that can stretch the field, while there is every chance that turnovers can create short fields.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Pick: I am going to have a small play on the Indianapolis Colts with the points in this one for the following reasons:
First, both teams are coming off games where they had to put in a big effort, but it was the Colts that got the W and that should at least keep them on a high and should help them play this game close at the very least.
Second, the Jets can't really afford to lose another game, but they have New England next on deck so there is a chance that they are looking past this 'easy' game which is between that game and the one against Houston last Monday Night.
Third, Mark Sanchez continues to struggle and I don't understand why he would be allowed to give up more than a field goal in any game at the moment.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I am backing the New England Patriots to win this game and silence the 12th Man. I like the Patriots for the following reasons:
First, the Patriots are playing at a very high level at the moment and they are making a point after being disrespected following a loss to Baltimore. They should be able to have more consistent success than the Seattle Offense which has spluttered more often than not.
Second, the Patriots are 9-5 against the spread as the road favourite when playing non-Divisional opponents since 2008.
Third, both teams have Divisional games on deck, but Seattle play on Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers and there is a chance that the team begin looking to that game if they fall behind in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I am going to play the points total in this one and I like under 44 points for the following reasons:
First, both Offensive Lines have struggled for different reasons and that should mean plenty of third and longs that will be hard to manage. The Bills will also look to dominate the time of possession with their running game to 'shorten' the game.
Second, Arizona are generally involved in low-scoring games and they have struggled to put points up consistently, while the Defense won't make it easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Offense to put up a lot of points.
Third, barring turnovers being taken back to the house and special team plays, I just don't have faith in either Offense to move the chains consistently.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am going to take the San Franciso 49ers to win and cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, this is a huge revenge spot for the 49ers after they effectively cost themselves a chance at playing in the SuperBowl last season with muffed punts and I think they will want to make a statement of their intentions this season.
Second, the 49ers are 9-0 against the spread as the home favourite in the regular season under Jim Harbaugh and he will have fired up his team after accusations of getting away with a lot from the referees that was suggested by the Giants in the lead up to this game.
Third, the 49ers are 7-2 against the spread as the favourite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
Fourth, the injuries in the New York Giants team on both sides of the ball will be tough to overcome and I just think it will show up here as they lose by 7.
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: I am still convinced that the Green Bay Packers are better than people think, but I'll only have a small interest on them to cover the spread this week for the following reasons:
First, Houston are on a short week here and the Green Bay Packers may feel a little disrespected in the media as some are going so far as to say that they won't even make the Play Offs.
Second, Houston should be focused against one of the better teams in the NFL, but they do have Baltimore next on deck in a game that could be widely important when it comes to the Number 1 seed in the AFC and so their focus may just waver a little.
Third, the injury to Brian Cushing, the leader of the Houston Defense, may see them have a slight dip in terms of fortunes in this game.
Fourth, the Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the road underdog. Despite their loss last week, Green Bay are also 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 against non-Conference teams.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys Over 44 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Arizona Cardinals-Buffalo Bills Under 44 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 21-21, - 6.03 Units
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