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Wednesday, 31 August 2011

US Open Day 3 Picks

Yesterday looked like it was going to develop into a tough day when Sabine Lisicki won by 6 games (I had picked her - 6.5 games) and David Ferrer won by 7 games (I had picked him - 7.5 games), but fortunately the other 4 picks I made came up trumps and provided further profit to ensure a solid start to the tournament.

We also saw David Ferrer move forward as my pick to win Quarter 4 and also a big outright price, and I was given further confidence by Rafael Nadal's struggles in the night game. The Spaniard may have won in straight sets, but should have lost sets 2 and 3 and I am glad I have backed against him with Andy Murray and Ferrer in this half of the draw.

Serena Williams also underlined the fact she is the favourite in the Women's draw with a commanding win last night. The only problem for Williams is the fact she is seeded low and will face a tough 3rd round match with Victoria Azarenka.

Day 3 is a little fractured due to the Hurricane warnings at the start of the week. Usually we would have seen a couple of Men's 2nd Round matches scheduled on this day, but instead we complete the 1st Round draw and the 2nd Round will begin tomorrow.

That has limited our choices a little, but I think I have found some profitable plays:

Andy Murray - 9.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: Andy Murray is the last of the big 4 players in the Men's game to play his 1st Round match and also means he will have to win 7 matches in 12 days if he wants to win the tournament.

He plays an opponent that will look to chase down balls all day, but I think that is what will cost him in this match. Somdev Devvarman is essentially Andy Murray without any real weapons to cause an opponent too many problems. The Indian player will win against a lot of players due to their unforced errors, but I expect Murray's consistency will break him down today.

It is a big spread, but I think the way the two players play could see Murray win a set 6-1 and that may be enough to ensure he covers. I expect the British player to be fully focused knowing he needs to spend as little time on court as possible at this stage of the tournament.

John Isner win 3-1 in sets vs Marcos Baghdatis: These two players meet for the 3rd time in a little over a month, and it is John Isner who has won the two previous meetings over the Summer to increase the head to head 3-0 in his favour.

Marcos Baghdatis is not the same player who reached the Australian Open Final in 2005 with his flamboyant style and he is making far too many errors these days. He has a new coach in Miles Maclagen, but it may take some time for their styles to mesh and we may not see a better Baghdatis until the 2012 season.

Isner should win enough free points on his own serve to keep the Cypriot frustrated, although I think the enigmatic Baghdatis will win a set especially with the likelihood of a couple of tie breaks needed to separate the players.

Robin Soderling - 8.5 games vs Louk Sorensen: One Irish player exited the tournament in unfortunate circumstances yesterday, and I feel his compatriot will go the same way tonight although I do have a couple of concerns on Soderling's fitness.

Soderling has not played since winning a tournament in his home country a couple of weeks after Wimbledon because he has had a few wrist issues. He was dominant in that tournament in Bastad, including beat Tomas Berdych for the loss of 1 game, and I think he can be far too strong for Sorensen if he is good to go.

The lack of hard court tennis over the Summer is a concern, but last year he was beaten early in Toronto and Cincinnati before reaching the Quarter Final here.

Sorensen will be nervous as he is playing in only his 2nd Grand Slam after qualifying here. I expect Soderling may start slowly, and then slowly take control of the match and record a 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 win to cover the spread.

Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games vs Alla Kudryavtseva: Wickmayer holds a 2-1 head to head record against Kudryavtseva, including a comfortable win here in the 1st Round in 2010.

Wickmayer had a comfortable 1st Round win this year and I think she will be too good for an opponent that has lost 7 of her last 10 matches, failing to win a set in any of those losses and losing comfortably.

The Belgian can be a little hit and miss with her style of play, but her 2 easy wins over Kudryavtseva should stand her in good stead to come through with a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 9.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Bodog (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling - 8.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US OPEN UPDATE: 7-2, + 8.88 Units

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