Tennis Outright Picks August 8th-14th

The American hard court season gets fully underway today as the Masters Tournament in Canada begin and we will see the return of the top 4 players in the World.

The WTA Tour also goes to Canada for their Rogers Cup in Toronto and that once again brings together a strong field including Kim Clijsters (back from injury) and Petra Kvitova (first match since winning Wimbledon).

ATP Masters Montreal

The Masters tournament in Canada has been dominated by the top 4 players of the World over the last 8 years and I am not going to look too much further when making my picks this week.

The top half of the draw is dominated by the presence of Novak Djokovic- it is a testament to his performances that he has only lost 1 match all year, especially considering the strength of Men's tennis at this point of time and he is rightly the Number 1 seed and favourite to win the tournament.

His route through to the Semi Final would have looked extremely difficult 18 months ago as he is down to play Nikolay Davydenko first up, before matches against Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner/Gael Monfils.

However, Davydenko is not the player of old, while I still think Del Potro is still a little short of being able to challenge the top 4 as he recovers from his wrist injury.

Djokovic is a former winner of this event while it has taken place in Montreal and it is understandable that he is the favourite. BUT I am instead going to back birthday boy Roger Federer to come out of this section.

The World's top 3 players all seem to have a mental edge over one another and it seems Federer feels much more confident when facing Djokovic than when he plays Nadal.

The hard courts are a favourite of Federer, especially in North America, and his game is perfectly suited to dominate rallies on the surface.

I would expect Federer to get the better of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, even though both have won matches against the former World Number 1 this season. Tsonga was forced to play the match of his life to come back and beat Federer at Wimbledon, but his inconsistency means I could not expect him to do that again, while Richard Gasquet was a little fortunate to win his match with the Fed Express.

At odds three times bigger than Djokovic, I will back Federer to come through this section and perhaps prove to the World that he is still the man to beat at the US Open.

My one concern is that Canada has not normally been the venue where Federer has played his best, being a losing Finalist on 2 occasions and he has lost before the Semi Final in 2 of the last 3 events.

That leads me on to my pick from the bottom half of the draw where I am going to take Andy Murray as a player that has had a lot of success in Canada in the last couple of years.

In fact, Murray has won this event in consecutive years and will be bidding for his hat-trick this year. The British Number 1 has an awkward looking draw as he is down to meet big serving Kevin Anderson in Round 2 and then Stanislas Wawrinka in Round 3, the latter beating Murray at the US Open last year.

A potential Quarter Final with Mardy Fish will cause problems of its own, with the American Number 1 having a winning record over Murray including a 3-0 head to head from 2010 alone. Those matches were close, and Fish may not be at his best with a bruised heel and he too has a couple of big obstacles in his path including the Washington Champions, Radek Stepanek, and the LA Champion, Ernests Gulbis.

Rafael Nadal is also in this half of the draw and should have relatively serene progress through to the Quarter Final where he will meet Tomas Berdych- however, the Czech player has not been in great form this season and I would expect Nadal to come through.

Murray has a strong record against Nadal on the hard courts and I think he will be able to beat the Spanish player if they do meet in the Semi Final. Nadal has won this tournament twice before, but has not been beyond the Semi Final in his other 5 appearances at the event.

WTA Toronto

The Women's event looks very open and there are plenty of questions that need answering as we get closer and closer to the US Open that starts on August 29th.

I have question marks over all the leading contenders, but also have no doubts that one of those will come away with the trophy.

Serena Williams is rightly the favourite after her recent domination of a tough field in Stanford, but she has a couple of really tough matches to negotiate and the price looks a little short for me.

Petra Kvitova will be tough to beat if she can mentally prepare for this tournament after winning her first Grand Slam title at Wimbledon, and she would not be the first player that struggles with the new weight of expectation on her shoulders.

Others like Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka, Na Li and Caroline Wozniacki have their own issues to overcome and I think it might be prudent to keep a watching brief on this tournament as far as the outright winner is concerned.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 7.00 BetFred/Victor Chandler (1 Unit E/W)

Andy Murray @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)

E/W is a winner if the player reaches the Final and is paid at 0.5 the odds.


Update: Unibet do indeed only do 'win only' on their outright markets, so will take the shorter odds at Ladbrokes