The Premier League is back today and it could not have come soon enough as far as I am concerned. It has been a miserable few months trying to actually pass the time on a Saturday- did anyone else realise how bad TV is on a Saturday afternoon? Well the channel flicking is over, Soccer Saturday is back and live football from the 'best League in the World'.
I thought I would have a quick look through the ante-post selections:
Winner
After the Community Shield last week, Manchester United hardened as Premier League title winners. I expect the boys should be good enough to get to Number 20 this season, but there is no value taking the prices on offer just yet... Why you ask? Take a quick look at United's start to the season and I would be very surprised if they are not a bigger price come the end of October.
With tough trips to Bolton, Stoke, Liverpool and Everton before that date, as well as entertaining Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City, it is conceivable that United will not be top of the table come November 1st and could be at a much better price than the 2.63 I have seen floating about.
I expect Manchester City to be United's closest challengers this season but I am not convinced with Roberto Mancini as manager. I find the Italian overly cautious which leads to City dropping points against teams they shouldn't and Mancini is also far too negative when playing the better teams.
However, they have a much more negotiable start to the season yet I have this feeling Mancini will aid them to lose too many points over the course of the next 9 months.
I can see Chelsea making a decent start to the season and would not be surprised if they lead the way as November begins- while the team is ageing, I think there are plenty of big characters in the dressing room that would have been hurt by last season and I also think Fernando Torres will actually return to form.
At the prices on offer, I think the value is on City to win the title, but I won't be backing them with concerns over Mancini and I will wait for the first 3 months and re-check prices before I dive into this market.
Top 4
I fully expect the 3 title contenders to finish in the top 4 this season, but I have real concerns for Arsenal. The loss of Cesc Fabregas will hurt this side, but the additional loss of Samir Nasri could be tragic for their chances of even finishing in the top 4.
The sides most likely to capitalise on any lapse from the Gunners are Liverpool and Tottenham.
Liverpool have been surprisingly active in the transfer market since the end of last season, but they still need to strengthen a defence that looks a little short of cover. I am not that convinced with the signings of Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson but I do think Stewart Downing could flourish as he has Andy Carroll to aim for with his crosses.
The lack of European commitment will really help Liverpool too, allowing Kenny Dalglish to keep his side fresh all season, and they have a real chance if Carroll and Luis Suarez can gel.
While Liverpool's transfer activity has been a little surprising, Tottenham's lack of activity must be a real concern for the fans. White Hart Lane got a real taste for the Champions League last season, but I still think they need a top quality striker to finish off the chances created by a very good midfield. Gomes is a bit of a concern in goal, but it is the lack of a top quality forward that will prevent this team moving forward as far as I am concerned.
Spurs have a tough start to the new season and could be playing catch up early on, but I would have favoured them to move up a place from last season if they had brought in a forward- there are still 2 weeks of the transfer window left so it is possible they do that before August 31st, but I think the play has to be the Scousers getting in at odds against.
Relegation
Much like last season, I expect there to be a real scrap at the bottom of the Premier League this season. There are too many teams that don't seem to have much about them that could struggle this year but the value play may be on a team suffering a 'second season syndrome'... How about someone like Newcastle United?
Newcastle have been in turmoil all Summer and have lost some key players like Kevin Nolan and Jose Enrique while Joey Barton has one foot out of the door. The signing of Gabriel Oberton does not inspire me in the slightest and if the Magpies make a bad start, they could find themselves in deep trouble come Christmas.
It is no surprise to see Norwich City and Swansea City as short favourites to return to the Championship, but QPR could find themselves in more trouble after the rich owners decided they will NOT splash the cash in the transfer window. There is obviously some concerns with their relationship with Neil Warnock, and it just seems not everyone is pulling in the same direction at Loftus Road.
The fans have been alienated with a huge hike in ticket prices and there just does not seem to be the positive vibes in this part of West London that should be associated with a first top flight appearance since 1996.
QPR look a decent price to return to the Championship, especially if they do not take advantage of what looks a soft start to the season.
I had a look at a couple of other options, notably Wigan and Blackburn- the former will be a lot shorter if they fail to make hay in their opening 3 games against the promoted sides, while the latter struggled in the back half of last season and do not look that much stronger this year.
Top Scorer
I think it shows something about the lack of top quality strikers in the Premier League when you look through a list for top scorers and only have a couple of real options.
I think Javier Hernandez is far too short considering this is only his 2nd season in England, and Wayne Rooney is the better choice. That leads me to my first pick from this section and that is Rooney to be Manchester United's top scorer at a standout 2.50 at Blue Square. I expect Rooney to play the majority of games, while he is also the penalty taker at Old Trafford.
Rooney will be getting additional service from the wings through Ashley Young and I can see him returning to the form he displayed 2 seasons ago.
But for the overall top scorer, I think an interest in Darren Bent each way looks the way to go- Bent is a proven scorer at this level and has been nominated as the penalty taker at Villa Park.
While he has lost the service provided by Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, the arrival of Charles N'Zogbia should help him and we have seen from his time at Sunderland that Bent makes the most of any chances that do come his way.
I am not sure how Villa are going to do this season, but I can see the majority of their goals coming through Bent and he looks the best price to at least reach the top 4 places come May.
MY PICKS: Liverpool to finish in the top 4 @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United to be relegated @ 6.5 (1 Unit)
QPR to be relegated @ 2.63 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Wayne Rooney top scorer for Manchester United @ 2.50 Blue Square (2 Units)
Darren Bent top Premier League goalscorer @ 13.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units e/w) Top 4 places pays e/w
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