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Friday, 19 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 19th Cincinnati Quarter Finals

It was a mixed bag in terms of results yesterday, but there was brighter news now Roger Federer and Andy Murray have moved into the Quarter Finals to keep my outright picks intact.

The biggest disappointment for me yesterday was Petra Kvitova and I have accepted the Wimbledon Champion is likely to struggle for the rest of the season as the expectation is far greater than she would have experienced before and it does take a little bit of time to get used to that.

The likes of Ana Ivanovic, Na Li and Svetlana Kuznetsova have all had down periods following their first Grand Slam win and Kvitova looks to be joining those ranks.

As far as the US Open goes, I cannot look beyond Serena Williams at this moment in time in the Women's draw as she looks far and away the best player in the World, even with her withdrawal from this tournament. The American looks to be reaching her best and she will be very difficult to stop.

On to the Picks:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Gilles Simon: Andy Murray was brilliant in the first set yesterday as he dismissed Alex Bogomolov, but he will have to keep concentration up for the duration of this match if he wants to make serene progress into the Semi Finals.

Gilles Simon had his third tough match of the week yesterday and has been struggling with a foot injury that required treatment last night as he struggled to serve in the final set.

The Frenchman has struggled against Murray in their recent meetings, losing 6 in a row against him including twice this season, and the fast hard courts should favour the Scot even more.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games vs Tomas Berdych: One year ago, I would have been all over Tomas Berdych with this headstart, but the Czech player's form has really dropped off this season and I can see Federer winning with a bit to spare.

Federer has played very well so far this week and his easy win over Juan Martin Del Potro has stamped that form, while Berdych has regularly got to this stage of a tournament before falling to the better players he faces.

Berdych could cause problems if he is serving well, but I think he is too mentally fragile at the moment and an early break could see this match going in one direction.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games vs Gael Monfils: Novak Djokovic is definitely feeling the pace from playing so much tennis over the last 10 days and looks ready to be taken on, but I don't believe Monfils is the man to do so.

They met last week in Montreal and it led to an extremely easy win for the World Number 1 and I cannot see how things will change this week.

Monfils had an easy win yesterday but that was thanks to a huge assist from Philipp Kohlschreiber who was making far too many unforced errors- this is something Djokovic will not be so generous with.

With the match starting in the evening, Djokovic should be able to prevail with a 6-4, 6-2 scoreline.

Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games vs Sam Stosur: Maria Sharapova has won all 8 meetings with Sam Stosur, the last 4 without losing a set and I think the hard courts favours her game.

Sharapova looked good in beating Kuznetsova yesterday and Sam Stosur has played a lot of tennis recently so fatigue could be an issue.

Sharapova is also losing an average of just over 2 games per set in the last 4 matches they have played against one another and I think she will come through by running away with a 2nd set following a tight 1st.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.16 Units

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