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Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 16th Cincinnati

A good start to the week as 3 of the 4 picks came up trumps yesterday and the form from the back end of last week has continued. I am hoping to ride this hot hand a little further, as we have a lot of options to choose from today.

On to the Picks:

Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.

He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.

Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.

Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.

However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.

Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.

Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.

Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.

Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.

Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.

The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.

Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.

The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.

I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.

Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.

Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.

Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.

Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.

However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.

The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.

MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units

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