Yesterday was a funny day for the picks I had made, with Soderling pulling out before his match started and Yanina Wickmayer retiring in the 2nd set of her match.
Fortunately the Wickmayer pick was placed at Paddy Power, one of the few layers who will only pay out when the match is completed and voids all bets when a retirement occurs.
We took advantage of that even though the tournament directors made Wickmayer play 1 more game when she clearly wanted to retire, a game that would have made the pick a loser in all other places.
Without thinking about the picks, the treatment of Wickmayer was disgusting, saying she could not retire without receiving an injury timeout. The Belgian broke down in a flood of tears as she had to made almost 10 minutes for the trainer to turn up, play 1 more game where she barely moved and then leave the court.
Something tells me a Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or AN Other top player would not be treated like this. It was horrible to watch and definitely a stain on my favourite tournament of the season.
Back to the picks, we ended up with another small profit on the day to add to the weeks tally as John Isner won his match 3-1 in sets against Marcos Baghdatis.
Andy Murray played some decent stuff in his win over Somdev Devvarman, but will need to go up a level against the dangerous Robin Haase in the next round, while Agnieszka Radwanska fell out of the tournament and was the first of my outright picks to fall, albeit only for a small interest.
Day 4 Picks:
Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Tomas Berdych may not be playing up to the level of the middle of 2010 but I expect him to level his head to head with Fabio Fognini today as these are the types of players he has been very successful against.
Berdych has dispatched his lower ranked opponents for the most part of the year, only struggling when coming up against the top 20 players. His big serve will give him plenty of free points and he hits his groundstrokes much bigger than his Italian opponent.
Fognini's serve can also be a liability and he tends to mentally check out of sets when things are not going his way.
That kind of attitude should allow Berdych to cover, although I expect at least 1 tight set.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Dudi Sela: The quality difference between the two players was underlined in their one previous meeting at the French Open in 2005 where Federer won with little problems.
I expect more of the same tonight from the Swiss player as he will not be faced with the shot making of Santiago Giraldo in the previous round.
Federer should get a look at the majority of service games from Sela, and his return game was in decent nick last time out.
If he serves well, I think he will be able to cover this large spread.
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games vs Marsel Ilhan: Fernando Verdasco started slowly in his 1st round encounter with Jarkko Nieminen, but I expect a better performance today against the Turkish qualifier.
Ilhan relies on his serve to set up his performances, but that shot is very erratic and I expect Verdasco will get plenty of chances to make hay.
The key to the cover could be how Verdasco's state is mentally- he has had the tendency for mental lapses in the last 18 months that have cost him games, sets and matches, but I think the 1st round win will have done a great deal for his confidence and I believe he will be able to win this in straight sets.
As with many of these matches, I expect a tight first set settled by 1 break of serve for the Spaniard, which should break the resistance of Ilhan and allow Verdasco to run away with the match.
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has a tendency to demolish opponents in the early rounds of tournaments, but I think we will see a tough encounter for her tonight.
Dulko leads the head to head 3-2, winning the last 3 meetings between the players, and her style clearly gives Azarenka problems.
The Argentine player has been struggling for form of late, losing 4 of her 5 matches during this US Summer swing, but they have been close losses and she has only been blown out once.
A win over Rebecca Marino will give Dulko confidence too. I am doubtful she can beat Azarenka again, but the spread looks a little too big in my opinion.
Petra Cetkovska vs Ana Ivanovic: The former World Number 1, Ana Ivanovic, has been struggling for the form of 2008 for some time and I think she could be beaten for the 2nd successive Grand Slam by Petra Cetkovska.
There is no doubt about Cetkovska's confidence since reaching the 4th round at Wimbledon- she has followed that up with a Semi Final in Palermo on the clay, and also qualified for Cincinnati before losing in the 2nd round, and qualifying for New Haven where she finished as runner-up to Caroline Wozniacki.
Ivanovic has been hit and miss for some time now and was not in great form when winning her 1st round match. She has lost as the favourite in 4 of her last 5 tournaments and I think she may be wrongly judged to be the favourite in this one.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Cetkovska @ 2.25 Stan James (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 8-3, + 9.63 Units
Featured post
English Football Premier League Picks Game Week 10 2026/27 (Friday 6th November 2026-Sunday 8th November 2026)
The international breaks have long been considered a time when top flight clubs will choose to make big decisions in relation to the current...
Showing posts with label Tomas Berdych. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tomas Berdych. Show all posts
Thursday, 1 September 2011
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 16th Cincinnati
A good start to the week as 3 of the 4 picks came up trumps yesterday and the form from the back end of last week has continued. I am hoping to ride this hot hand a little further, as we have a lot of options to choose from today.
On to the Picks:
Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.
He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.
Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.
Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.
However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.
Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.
Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.
The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.
Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.
The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.
I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.
Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.
Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.
Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.
However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.
The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.
MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units
On to the Picks:
Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.
He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.
Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.
Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.
However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.
Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.
Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.
The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.
Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.
The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.
I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.
Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.
Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.
Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.
However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.
The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.
MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 11th
It has been an extremely difficult week so far both for us making the picks and for the players as Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have both 'one and done' in Canada.
The manner of Nadal's loss brought back memories of Roger Federer's defeat on the same court to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2 years ago as the Spaniard blew winning positions time after time.
Nadal won the first set with minimal fuss and then moved into a 3-1 lead in the second set as a routine victory looked on the cards. However, Ivan Dodig clearly had other plans and fought back to take the set on the tie break.
Order looked to be restored with Nadal taking a 3-0 lead in the decider but that was quickly wiped out. Again it looked all over as Nadal broke to lead 5-3 and served for the match but Dodig was inspired and managed to once again fight back and took the match with a stunning backhand on his first match point.
It's another busy day in Canada today but the forecast does not look pretty so it will be some feat to get all the matches through.
Still, here are my picks for the day:
Sam Stosur vs Na Li: Thanks to Shuai Peng's withdrawal, this is the first match Na Li will play since Wimbledon and it cannot get much tougher against the big serving Sam Stosur, a player that also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Li.
Stosur has not been in great form in recent weeks, but she is used to the conditions in Toronto thanks to her 2 wins to reach this stage. Her game is suited to the hard courts and she will feel confident having won all 6 sets contested with Li.
Li is just 2-2 since winning the French Open and she seems to have a problem adapting to her new found fame. I am not sure if she will be mentally ready for this tough test and she has lost her last 5 matches on hard courts. She was also beaten at this stage in Canada last year and that was with a number of matches behind her since Wimbledon.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: I was interested to see how Kvitova was going to play following her successful Wimbledon, but the young Czech star was very solid in coming through her opening match here in Canada.
A concern is she did struggle in North America earlier this season with quick exits at Indian Wells and Miami and she also lost early during this part of the season last year. However, I think she is mentally so much stronger now and has complete belief in her own game.
Petkovic has really made the best out of her talent, but she remains a step below the elite in the Women's game and she has regularly come up short when playing the best this season. I fear this will be yet another one of those occasions as her serve and groundstrokes just cannot compete with the other more consistent players.
The German is 2-3 in her head to head meetings with Kvitova, and was beaten heavily in their one and only meeting this season after winning the previous 2 contests.
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: Ana Ivanovic is striving to regain her position at the top of the Women's game and she has been playing a little better in recent months, although still having the lack of confidence to throw in some terrible losses.
She reached the Semi Final in San Diego last week before finding Vera Zvonareva too good, but there have been signs in the last 2 weeks that she is moving into some good form.
Roberta Vinci is a surprise opponent for Ivanovic after beating Yanina Wickmayer and Caroline Wozniacki as the underdog in the last 2 Rounds, but I cannot remove the Jie Zheng defeat in San Diego from my mind.
This is the Italian's best run on a North American hard court, and she also holds a win over Ivanovic from earlier this season. That snapped a 4 match losing run to her opponent, but I think Ivanovic is playing too good for her at the moment and I see a 6-4, 6-2 win for the former World Number 1.
Double; Tomas Berdych vs Ivo Karlovic and Janko Tipsarevic vs Ivan Dodig: I think Tomas Berdych will be too strong for Ivo Karlovic who is coming to the end of a career that was far more productive than I think even Karlovic would have expected.
The win over Alexandr Dolgopolov for Berdych in the last Round would have boosted his confidence and I think he will be too strong for the big Croatian here.
I am also backing Janko Tipsarevic in a big Serb-Croat clash today. Ivan Dodig played the best match of his career yesterday against Rafael Nadal and I feel this may be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the Croatian. Tipsarevic is a tough opponent and has already beaten Dodig in straight sets earlier this year.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: This is another match where I am taking on a player that had a big win in the last Round- Kevin Anderson beat Andy Murray but had been not been in that great shape in his win over Pablo Andujar and I think he may be caught out by Stanislas Wawrinka here.
Wawrinka looked good in his win over David Nalbandian in the 1st Round and made short work of Michael Russell- the Swiss Number 2 will also see this as a chance to make a real impact in a Masters tournament with the exits of Murray and Rafael Nadal from the bottom half of the section.
Anderson served big in his win over Murray, but the serve was not so effective against Andujar and Wawrinka has faced him before, winning in straight sets in Miami last year.
I am a little concerned with the lack of form Wawrinka has shown in recent weeks, but I think he will be too good today.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is a rematch from 2 years ago when these two players were involved in a memorable match that Tsonga won after being 5-1 down in the final set.
More importantly, it is a rematch of this years Wimbledon Quarter Final that saw Tsonga fight back from a 2-0 deficit to knock out Federer and you can be sure the Swiss former World Number 1 is out for revenge.
Tsonga played absolutely brilliantly when he beat Federer at Wimbledon, a performance to match his destruction of Rafael Nadal in the 2008 Australian Open Semi Final. The problem remains the Frenchman's lack of consistency to put together those performances more regularly and I cannot see him beating Federer again.
It wasn't the best performance from Federer yesterday when beating a Canadian Wild Card, but he did enough and was serving well. That will be the key tonight and he will also need to return better than he did.
The last time Tsonga beat Federer, he was crushed fairly easily in their 3 subsequent meetings, and I am not comfortable backing a player that needs to catch lightning in a bottle to win... I think Federer wins 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.36 BetFred (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.73 Units
The manner of Nadal's loss brought back memories of Roger Federer's defeat on the same court to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2 years ago as the Spaniard blew winning positions time after time.
Nadal won the first set with minimal fuss and then moved into a 3-1 lead in the second set as a routine victory looked on the cards. However, Ivan Dodig clearly had other plans and fought back to take the set on the tie break.
Order looked to be restored with Nadal taking a 3-0 lead in the decider but that was quickly wiped out. Again it looked all over as Nadal broke to lead 5-3 and served for the match but Dodig was inspired and managed to once again fight back and took the match with a stunning backhand on his first match point.
It's another busy day in Canada today but the forecast does not look pretty so it will be some feat to get all the matches through.
Still, here are my picks for the day:
Sam Stosur vs Na Li: Thanks to Shuai Peng's withdrawal, this is the first match Na Li will play since Wimbledon and it cannot get much tougher against the big serving Sam Stosur, a player that also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Li.
Stosur has not been in great form in recent weeks, but she is used to the conditions in Toronto thanks to her 2 wins to reach this stage. Her game is suited to the hard courts and she will feel confident having won all 6 sets contested with Li.
Li is just 2-2 since winning the French Open and she seems to have a problem adapting to her new found fame. I am not sure if she will be mentally ready for this tough test and she has lost her last 5 matches on hard courts. She was also beaten at this stage in Canada last year and that was with a number of matches behind her since Wimbledon.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: I was interested to see how Kvitova was going to play following her successful Wimbledon, but the young Czech star was very solid in coming through her opening match here in Canada.
A concern is she did struggle in North America earlier this season with quick exits at Indian Wells and Miami and she also lost early during this part of the season last year. However, I think she is mentally so much stronger now and has complete belief in her own game.
Petkovic has really made the best out of her talent, but she remains a step below the elite in the Women's game and she has regularly come up short when playing the best this season. I fear this will be yet another one of those occasions as her serve and groundstrokes just cannot compete with the other more consistent players.
The German is 2-3 in her head to head meetings with Kvitova, and was beaten heavily in their one and only meeting this season after winning the previous 2 contests.
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: Ana Ivanovic is striving to regain her position at the top of the Women's game and she has been playing a little better in recent months, although still having the lack of confidence to throw in some terrible losses.
She reached the Semi Final in San Diego last week before finding Vera Zvonareva too good, but there have been signs in the last 2 weeks that she is moving into some good form.
Roberta Vinci is a surprise opponent for Ivanovic after beating Yanina Wickmayer and Caroline Wozniacki as the underdog in the last 2 Rounds, but I cannot remove the Jie Zheng defeat in San Diego from my mind.
This is the Italian's best run on a North American hard court, and she also holds a win over Ivanovic from earlier this season. That snapped a 4 match losing run to her opponent, but I think Ivanovic is playing too good for her at the moment and I see a 6-4, 6-2 win for the former World Number 1.
Double; Tomas Berdych vs Ivo Karlovic and Janko Tipsarevic vs Ivan Dodig: I think Tomas Berdych will be too strong for Ivo Karlovic who is coming to the end of a career that was far more productive than I think even Karlovic would have expected.
The win over Alexandr Dolgopolov for Berdych in the last Round would have boosted his confidence and I think he will be too strong for the big Croatian here.
I am also backing Janko Tipsarevic in a big Serb-Croat clash today. Ivan Dodig played the best match of his career yesterday against Rafael Nadal and I feel this may be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the Croatian. Tipsarevic is a tough opponent and has already beaten Dodig in straight sets earlier this year.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: This is another match where I am taking on a player that had a big win in the last Round- Kevin Anderson beat Andy Murray but had been not been in that great shape in his win over Pablo Andujar and I think he may be caught out by Stanislas Wawrinka here.
Wawrinka looked good in his win over David Nalbandian in the 1st Round and made short work of Michael Russell- the Swiss Number 2 will also see this as a chance to make a real impact in a Masters tournament with the exits of Murray and Rafael Nadal from the bottom half of the section.
Anderson served big in his win over Murray, but the serve was not so effective against Andujar and Wawrinka has faced him before, winning in straight sets in Miami last year.
I am a little concerned with the lack of form Wawrinka has shown in recent weeks, but I think he will be too good today.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is a rematch from 2 years ago when these two players were involved in a memorable match that Tsonga won after being 5-1 down in the final set.
More importantly, it is a rematch of this years Wimbledon Quarter Final that saw Tsonga fight back from a 2-0 deficit to knock out Federer and you can be sure the Swiss former World Number 1 is out for revenge.
Tsonga played absolutely brilliantly when he beat Federer at Wimbledon, a performance to match his destruction of Rafael Nadal in the 2008 Australian Open Semi Final. The problem remains the Frenchman's lack of consistency to put together those performances more regularly and I cannot see him beating Federer again.
It wasn't the best performance from Federer yesterday when beating a Canadian Wild Card, but he did enough and was serving well. That will be the key tonight and he will also need to return better than he did.
The last time Tsonga beat Federer, he was crushed fairly easily in their 3 subsequent meetings, and I am not comfortable backing a player that needs to catch lightning in a bottle to win... I think Federer wins 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.36 BetFred (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.73 Units
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 16th
I was so angry with the way things had gone for me the day before yesterday that I could not bring myself to make more picks until I felt I was back on the straight and narrow.
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
Monday, 27 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 7 Picks
Last week proved to be a happy hunting ground for the picks. I was hoping to come online with a recap of the week's events, but have been out for most of the day so did not have the time to do so.
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
Friday, 24 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 5 Picks
It was the best day of the week as far as my picks were concerned yesterday and I am hoping to add a few more units to the coffers today.
My outright picks are also in good shape, with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic progressing through another Round with ease and bringing us one step closer to the top 4 seeds reaching the Semi Final.
Maria Sharapova's match with Laura Robson was postponed because of rain, so she will have to win 2 matches in 2 days if she wants to reach the 2nd week of the tournament.
The weather looks like it will be bright for the majority of play tomorrow, although showers are due to arrive in the area in the evening.
Now on to Day 5 Picks:
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I actually thought Lopez had more than half a chance of winning this match before the tournament started, but I now feel Andy Roddick is playing very well and also holds a mental edge over his opponent in this match.
Roddick improved to 7-0 against Lopez at Queens just 2 weeks ago, coming through in 3 tight sets. That means Lopez has taken at least 1 set in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players.
With this match likely to see a couple of tie breakers, I would not be surprised if Roddick drops his first set of the tournament, even though I think he is playing well enough to come through in 4 sets.
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: Tomas Berdych has started this Wimbledon in fine fashion as he looks to make an impact like he did last year. He has blasted Julien Benneteau and Filippo Volandri away, losing just 12 games in the 6 sets he has competed.
Bogomolov was a surprise winner over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, but this is an altogether tougher test. The American has not fared well on the grass in the past and I think he has taken advantage of a decent draw this time around.
However, I feel Berdych will end his participation in this year's tournament with a bit to spare.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli really surprised me with this win over Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but much of that was down to the poor performance of his opponent when it came down to the big points.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet, a player very accustomed to the grass courts, and also one that has been playing some fantastic tennis of late. Gasquet is yet to drop a set in this tournament.
The Frenchman also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Bolelli, winning 6 of the 7 sets they have contested. 1 of those wins came on grass, with Gasquet winning 6-3, 6-3.
Bolelli was a little fortunate in the last Round, and I expect Gasquet to come through this one while clearing the handicap.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: This was supposed to be one of the highlights of the 3rd Round as it was supposed to be Venus Williams against Jelena Jankovic, but it was Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who put pay to that.
Williams struggled to get by Kimiko Date-Krumm in the last Round, but that match may just give her the confidence to make a really deep run in the tournament.
Williams has also won both previous matches against the Spaniard, including a straight sets win here at Wimbledon in 2008, and I expect she will be focused after the scare of Wednesday to come through easily enough this time.
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games vs Vera Zvonareva: Now I have already advised an e/w pick of Vera Zvonareva in the tournament, but I think Pironkova is being a tad underestimated here on the spread. I still expect Zvonareva to find a way to get through, I just wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance.
They share a 1-1 record on the head to heads, with Zvonareva beating Pironkova in 3 sets last year in the Semi Final here.
Pironkova had been out of form before the grass court season began, but she has made easier progress through the draw here and pushed Serena Williams all the way last week in Eastbourne.
Personally, I would not be surprised if she pushes Zvonareva before perhaps falling in 3 sets.
MY PICKS: Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 2.05 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 7.03 Units (+ 6.2 Units Day 4)
My outright picks are also in good shape, with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic progressing through another Round with ease and bringing us one step closer to the top 4 seeds reaching the Semi Final.
Maria Sharapova's match with Laura Robson was postponed because of rain, so she will have to win 2 matches in 2 days if she wants to reach the 2nd week of the tournament.
The weather looks like it will be bright for the majority of play tomorrow, although showers are due to arrive in the area in the evening.
Now on to Day 5 Picks:
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I actually thought Lopez had more than half a chance of winning this match before the tournament started, but I now feel Andy Roddick is playing very well and also holds a mental edge over his opponent in this match.
Roddick improved to 7-0 against Lopez at Queens just 2 weeks ago, coming through in 3 tight sets. That means Lopez has taken at least 1 set in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players.
With this match likely to see a couple of tie breakers, I would not be surprised if Roddick drops his first set of the tournament, even though I think he is playing well enough to come through in 4 sets.
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: Tomas Berdych has started this Wimbledon in fine fashion as he looks to make an impact like he did last year. He has blasted Julien Benneteau and Filippo Volandri away, losing just 12 games in the 6 sets he has competed.
Bogomolov was a surprise winner over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, but this is an altogether tougher test. The American has not fared well on the grass in the past and I think he has taken advantage of a decent draw this time around.
However, I feel Berdych will end his participation in this year's tournament with a bit to spare.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli really surprised me with this win over Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but much of that was down to the poor performance of his opponent when it came down to the big points.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet, a player very accustomed to the grass courts, and also one that has been playing some fantastic tennis of late. Gasquet is yet to drop a set in this tournament.
The Frenchman also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Bolelli, winning 6 of the 7 sets they have contested. 1 of those wins came on grass, with Gasquet winning 6-3, 6-3.
Bolelli was a little fortunate in the last Round, and I expect Gasquet to come through this one while clearing the handicap.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: This was supposed to be one of the highlights of the 3rd Round as it was supposed to be Venus Williams against Jelena Jankovic, but it was Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who put pay to that.
Williams struggled to get by Kimiko Date-Krumm in the last Round, but that match may just give her the confidence to make a really deep run in the tournament.
Williams has also won both previous matches against the Spaniard, including a straight sets win here at Wimbledon in 2008, and I expect she will be focused after the scare of Wednesday to come through easily enough this time.
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games vs Vera Zvonareva: Now I have already advised an e/w pick of Vera Zvonareva in the tournament, but I think Pironkova is being a tad underestimated here on the spread. I still expect Zvonareva to find a way to get through, I just wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance.
They share a 1-1 record on the head to heads, with Zvonareva beating Pironkova in 3 sets last year in the Semi Final here.
Pironkova had been out of form before the grass court season began, but she has made easier progress through the draw here and pushed Serena Williams all the way last week in Eastbourne.
Personally, I would not be surprised if she pushes Zvonareva before perhaps falling in 3 sets.
MY PICKS: Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 2.05 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 7.03 Units (+ 6.2 Units Day 4)
Saturday, 11 June 2011
Tennis Picks 11th June 2011
It's almost the business end of the week as we reach the Semi Finals of the 4 tournaments running. We have had a few surprises, for example James Ward still being an active participant, but these things happen when the 250 point events arrive.
Rafael Nadal has not looked right all week and earned a well deserved rest following his defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday in the Quarter Finals.
I mean you might not think that is the case if you have been following the BBC's coverage of the event over the week. In fact, you might believe Wimbledon had started a couple weeks earlier than usual with the emphasis they are putting on this event.
While it is nice for players to get a feel for the grass underneath their feet, do not forget a lot of players are honing their skills and getting used to the surface and the bigger picture is performing from June 20th-July 3rd for most of the players.
It is no surprise that the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic felt it was more productive resting up in anticipation of Wimbledon than taking part in an a small event for few ranking points.
In saying that, I am glad for James Ward that he is getting a bit of attention for his performances this week. HOWEVER, he needs to translate that game into the challengers if he wants to move into the top 200 because most of the British public will soon forget about him once Wimbledon is over.
Ward needs to start dominating challenger events so he can become a regular feature on the main tour, but too many British players show some form either here at Queens or in the early Rounds at Wimbledon and then disappear for good (example: Chris Eaton qualified for Wimbledon and made it through at least 1 Round before losing to Dmitry Tursunov. Many were expecting big things but he has won just 3 and lost 9 on grass since and was struggling to qualify for this event last time I noticed him).
On to the Picks:
Halle
Philipp Petzschner win vs Tomas Berdych: So I am going to have a small play on the underdog to cause a surprise here. Petzschner is seriously underestimated on the grass courts to cause a shock here against a player that has been more out of form in recent weeks and struggling to rediscover his high levels of form.
Petzschner beat the dangerous Milos Raonic in 3 sets yesterday, but his grass court pedigree was stamped last year when he lost to Roger Federer in 2 tight sets here in Halle at this stage, while also pushing eventual Wimbledon Champion Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at the Grand Slam.
Berdych beat Troicki yesterday in 2 sets, but has not really been playing well all week and Petzschner may just take advantage of that.
Berdych leads the head to head 3-1, but all the matches have been tight affairs. 3 of the 4 matches have gone the distance, while the other was won by Berdych 7-5, 6-4. Berdych has won all 3 matches on the faster hard courts, while Petzschner's win came on the clay.
I wouldn't go overboard with the stakes just because Petzschner can be a little erratic in his play, but the odds are just tasty enough for me to want to be involved.
Queens
Andy Murray - 2.5 games vs Andy Roddick: Andy Murray has definitely been moving more freely on his ankle and must feel this tournament is there for the taking for the 2nd time in his career. In fact, the winner of this match will feel they are the favourites to go through and win this tournament.
The conditions at Queens have been a lot slower than previous years, even if the ace count has been particularly high in a couple of matches, and this will give the better returner in Andy Murray a chance to win this match.
Roddick has not played a lot of matches in recent weeks, but has looked better in each passing match this week. However, he is giving up a few chances on his own serve and that could spell the end for him here.
The American is clearly one of the better grass court players around, but I have Murray only behind Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on this surface.
Murray has the better groundstrokes and should win the majority of rallies once they get past shots 4-5 and the British Number 1 has been serving pretty well in his 2 matches this week.
Murray leads the head to head 6-3 (not including non-ATP matches), although it is 1-1 on grass courts.
This is their first meeting since THAT Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009 which was won by Roddick in 4 sets and I think it would take a similar level of performance if Roddick wants to win this one today.
MY PICKS: Philipp Petzschner win @ 2.88 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 2.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 5.95 Units (- 0.34 Units yesterday)
Rafael Nadal has not looked right all week and earned a well deserved rest following his defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday in the Quarter Finals.
I mean you might not think that is the case if you have been following the BBC's coverage of the event over the week. In fact, you might believe Wimbledon had started a couple weeks earlier than usual with the emphasis they are putting on this event.
While it is nice for players to get a feel for the grass underneath their feet, do not forget a lot of players are honing their skills and getting used to the surface and the bigger picture is performing from June 20th-July 3rd for most of the players.
It is no surprise that the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic felt it was more productive resting up in anticipation of Wimbledon than taking part in an a small event for few ranking points.
In saying that, I am glad for James Ward that he is getting a bit of attention for his performances this week. HOWEVER, he needs to translate that game into the challengers if he wants to move into the top 200 because most of the British public will soon forget about him once Wimbledon is over.
Ward needs to start dominating challenger events so he can become a regular feature on the main tour, but too many British players show some form either here at Queens or in the early Rounds at Wimbledon and then disappear for good (example: Chris Eaton qualified for Wimbledon and made it through at least 1 Round before losing to Dmitry Tursunov. Many were expecting big things but he has won just 3 and lost 9 on grass since and was struggling to qualify for this event last time I noticed him).
On to the Picks:
Halle
Philipp Petzschner win vs Tomas Berdych: So I am going to have a small play on the underdog to cause a surprise here. Petzschner is seriously underestimated on the grass courts to cause a shock here against a player that has been more out of form in recent weeks and struggling to rediscover his high levels of form.
Petzschner beat the dangerous Milos Raonic in 3 sets yesterday, but his grass court pedigree was stamped last year when he lost to Roger Federer in 2 tight sets here in Halle at this stage, while also pushing eventual Wimbledon Champion Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at the Grand Slam.
Berdych beat Troicki yesterday in 2 sets, but has not really been playing well all week and Petzschner may just take advantage of that.
Berdych leads the head to head 3-1, but all the matches have been tight affairs. 3 of the 4 matches have gone the distance, while the other was won by Berdych 7-5, 6-4. Berdych has won all 3 matches on the faster hard courts, while Petzschner's win came on the clay.
I wouldn't go overboard with the stakes just because Petzschner can be a little erratic in his play, but the odds are just tasty enough for me to want to be involved.
Queens
Andy Murray - 2.5 games vs Andy Roddick: Andy Murray has definitely been moving more freely on his ankle and must feel this tournament is there for the taking for the 2nd time in his career. In fact, the winner of this match will feel they are the favourites to go through and win this tournament.
The conditions at Queens have been a lot slower than previous years, even if the ace count has been particularly high in a couple of matches, and this will give the better returner in Andy Murray a chance to win this match.
Roddick has not played a lot of matches in recent weeks, but has looked better in each passing match this week. However, he is giving up a few chances on his own serve and that could spell the end for him here.
The American is clearly one of the better grass court players around, but I have Murray only behind Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on this surface.
Murray has the better groundstrokes and should win the majority of rallies once they get past shots 4-5 and the British Number 1 has been serving pretty well in his 2 matches this week.
Murray leads the head to head 6-3 (not including non-ATP matches), although it is 1-1 on grass courts.
This is their first meeting since THAT Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009 which was won by Roddick in 4 sets and I think it would take a similar level of performance if Roddick wants to win this one today.
MY PICKS: Philipp Petzschner win @ 2.88 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 2.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 5.95 Units (- 0.34 Units yesterday)
Friday, 10 June 2011
Tennis Picks 10th June 2011
It was one of those bad days in the office yesterday as Marin Cilic decided to tank away set 2 before coming back and winning thus failing to cover the spread.
Sam Querrey looked well in control of his match with James Ward after taking the 1st set and then earning a break point in the 1st game of set 2... He missed his chance and played some really passive stuff to lose the set and now we need him to win either 6-0 or 6-1 when the players resume battle tomorrow at 1pm local time.
The bookies have also been lazy and failed to release any handicaps for tournaments at Queens, Birmingham or Copenhagen at the time of writing, so I am sticking to 1 pick for the day.
Halle
Tomas Berdych win vs Victor Troicki: Now Tomas Berdych is not really playing trustworthy tennis at the moment, but I am picking him to win this match as I think his grass court game is being underestimated, or Troicki's is being overestimated.
Berdych has laboured to a couple of wins this week while Troicki's path through the draw has been easier, but I think this is a bad match up for the latter.
Troicki has also failed to perform on grass courts in the past while Berdych has all the tools to be a real threat on the surface as his run to the Wimbledon Final showed last year.
Both have 1 win apiece against one another, both meetings taking place in Indian Wells and the most recent won by Berdych in 2 comfortable sets.
As I mentioned above, I dont really trust Berdych at the moment, but I do think he is the better grass court player and I feel his odds are too high for this match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games @ 2.25 (2 Units) Still Running from yesterday
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 6.29 Units (- 2 Units yesterday)
Sam Querrey looked well in control of his match with James Ward after taking the 1st set and then earning a break point in the 1st game of set 2... He missed his chance and played some really passive stuff to lose the set and now we need him to win either 6-0 or 6-1 when the players resume battle tomorrow at 1pm local time.
The bookies have also been lazy and failed to release any handicaps for tournaments at Queens, Birmingham or Copenhagen at the time of writing, so I am sticking to 1 pick for the day.
Halle
Tomas Berdych win vs Victor Troicki: Now Tomas Berdych is not really playing trustworthy tennis at the moment, but I am picking him to win this match as I think his grass court game is being underestimated, or Troicki's is being overestimated.
Berdych has laboured to a couple of wins this week while Troicki's path through the draw has been easier, but I think this is a bad match up for the latter.
Troicki has also failed to perform on grass courts in the past while Berdych has all the tools to be a real threat on the surface as his run to the Wimbledon Final showed last year.
Both have 1 win apiece against one another, both meetings taking place in Indian Wells and the most recent won by Berdych in 2 comfortable sets.
As I mentioned above, I dont really trust Berdych at the moment, but I do think he is the better grass court player and I feel his odds are too high for this match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games @ 2.25 (2 Units) Still Running from yesterday
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 6.29 Units (- 2 Units yesterday)
Sunday, 22 May 2011
French Open Tennis Men's Tournament Preview and Picks
It is coming up to the end of the English Premier League season and that only means we have two Grand Slams in the world of tennis to keep us a little occupied in the coming months since we are not being blessed with a full international tournament this Summer.
All the talk coming into Roland Garros this season is around the Novak Djokovic 37 match winning run to open the 2011 season. Djokovic has collected the Australian Open and 4 Masters Events during this run and has a real chance to overtake John McEnroe's 42 game winning run to start a season.
In saying all that, I still believe this will the hardest tournament for Djokovic to win in terms of pushing his fitness and having the task to eventually beat Rafael Nadal over a best of 5 set match. The Serb looked fatigued in Rome and it will be interesting to see how he holds up in the next fortnight.
Men's tennis is in a really good period at the moment with great rivalries developing and there is plenty of depth in the draw. I will break down each Quarter and eventually lead to a couple of picks that can hopefully bring home a profit at the end of the tournament.
I will also be putting up picks for each day of the tournament so without further ado, lets look at the draw:
First Quarter
The first quarter is headed up by the World Number 1 (on rankings at least) Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard also happens to have lost just 1 match in 39 at this tournament while winning it 5 times and has the chance to equal Bjorn Borg's record of 6 French Open titles.
The main threat in this section of the draw is Nadal's one and only French Open conquerer, Robin Soderling. The courts here in Paris really suit the Swede's game and he will remember he has beaten Nadal here before, although he will have to erase the ease of his defeat in the Final last season.
Other threats in this section are Mardy Fish, the highest ranked American and a significantly improved player on this surface and Fernando Verdasco, although the Spaniard has been in a rut of form for almost 12 months now.
John Isner is the first opponent for Nadal, but I dont expect problems on this surface and the first real test could be the potential 3rd Round meeting with Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko has not really been in the best of form this season, but has won a title on clay courts and could at least push the Spaniard.
12 wins from 12 against Fernando Verdasco, a potential 4th Round opponent, means Nadal is almost certain to be a Quarter Finalist.
At that stage I would expect to see a Nadal-Soderling Quarter Final, but again would favour the Spaniard to win as long as there are no injury issues.
Second Quarter
The highest seed in this section is World Number 4 Andy Murray and I would guess he could not be happier with the way the draw has panned out. The British player looks to have a fairly relaxing opening 2 Rounds of the tournament and then could face a couple of big servers in the forms of Milos Raonic in the 3rd Round and Alexander Dolgopolov in the 4th Round.
Raonic is a definite star in the making, but the clay courts look likely to be his least favoured surface and he has had a few injury concerns to deal with of late, while Dolgopolov is very inconsistent. Both of these players are likely to push Murray, but ultimately come up short.
There are a couple of dangerous players that could face Murray in the Quarter Finals in the forms of Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro. Melzer reached the Semi Finals in this tournament last season but has not been in the best of form of late. Almagro, on the other hand, is completely comfortable on a clay court and also gave Rafael Nadal a tough time on this surface last season.
IF Almagro can negotiate the early rounds with as little effort as possible, I think he can be a real threat to win this Quarter.
Third Quarter
This section of the draw looks set to provide the most intriguing Quarter Final as David Ferrer and Roger Federer look set on a collision course next week.
Federer has been overlooked by many coming into this tournament, but has been handed a tricky, yet more than achievable, section to negotiate. An opener against Feliciano Lopez looks more intriguing after their close battle in Madrid, but these courts will not help Lopez' game and I expect the former World Number 1 to get through.
Federer also has a couple of tough looking games with Janko Tipsarevic and Stanislas Wawrinka to get through before the Quarter Finals, but both players are inconsistent and may struggle to mentally believe they can beat Federer in 3 out of 5 set matches.
David Ferrer's path through to the clash with Federer looks a lot more straight forward with the toughest assignment being a potential 4th Round clash with home favourite Gael Monfils. Monfils has beaten Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, including once at this tournament, but has been struggling to string wins together.
Federer has beaten Ferrer in all 12 previous meetings, including 4 times on clay, and it would be hard to see Ferrer overturn that here in the longer formats of a Grand Slam. Ferrer has been in better recent form on this surface than the Swiss man, but mentally it could be hard for him to overcome this hurdle.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw is where the current World Number 2, Novak Djokovic, has been placed and I cant say he would have been overly happy with the tough nature of his draw.
This section has some real dangerous characters in the form of Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, and arguably most of all, Juan Martin Del Potro all standing in the way of progress.
Del Potro was the one man I considered the most dangerous floater in the draw as his seeding would mean an early meeting for one of the top 4 seeds. The Argentine looked set to miss this tournament when injuring himself in Madrid, but he announced he would play and has been talking up his chances.
I would expect him to get through to a 3rd Round clash with Djokovic and it is entirely possible that could go the distance if Del Potro is not feeling any effects from his first 2 Rounds in the tournament.
Following that clash, Djokovic is likely to play either Richard Gasquet (who beat Federer in Rome) or Thomas Bellucci, the Brazilian who was a set and a break up against Djokovic in Madrid. Either one of those opponents will give Djokovic another test and this is when any doubts about the Serb's fitness will be shown up.
The Quarter Final is likely to see Tomas Berdych face the World Number 2- Berdych was a Semi Finalist here last year and the clay courts in Paris definitely favour his game. Even if Djokovic is still unbeaten by this time, I have no idea what kind of physical state he will find himself.
Semi Finals and Final
At this stage of the competition, I would fully expect Rafael Nadal to negotiate whoever has come out on the Second Quarter, be it Andy Murray or Nicolas Almagro. I also expect the Spaniard would have had the least amount on court out of the 4 players left at this stage.
The other half of the draw is likely to see a fresher Roger Federer facing an opponent that could have already had a very tough time getting through what looks like a loaded Fourth Quarter.
While it is hard to suggest Novak Djokovic's run has already come to an end by this stage, the draw has not been kind to him and it is a real possibility that it is Tomas Berdych facing Federer here.
Whoever it may be will be in for a really hard game as they are likely to have spent the most amount of time on court and that may just give Federer the opportunity to face his old rival in the Final.
Roger Federer has been quoted in the press this week where he is perhaps questioning the mental state that Rafael Nadal may be in after losing 4 straight Masters Finals to Novak Djokovic. This will likely be something Nadal has heard or read himself and I think the Spaniard would only be more focused to prove a point by retaining his crown in dominating fashion.
I am really looking forward to the next couple of weeks as I expect a strong tournament with some intriguing matches. Let us hope the rain stays away in Paris and we all have a profitable tournament.
My Picks: Rafael Nadal win the tournament @ 2.0 (5 Units)
Roger Federer win the tournament @ 17.0 (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych win the tournament @ 100 (0.5 Units E/W)
All the talk coming into Roland Garros this season is around the Novak Djokovic 37 match winning run to open the 2011 season. Djokovic has collected the Australian Open and 4 Masters Events during this run and has a real chance to overtake John McEnroe's 42 game winning run to start a season.
In saying all that, I still believe this will the hardest tournament for Djokovic to win in terms of pushing his fitness and having the task to eventually beat Rafael Nadal over a best of 5 set match. The Serb looked fatigued in Rome and it will be interesting to see how he holds up in the next fortnight.
Men's tennis is in a really good period at the moment with great rivalries developing and there is plenty of depth in the draw. I will break down each Quarter and eventually lead to a couple of picks that can hopefully bring home a profit at the end of the tournament.
I will also be putting up picks for each day of the tournament so without further ado, lets look at the draw:
First Quarter
The first quarter is headed up by the World Number 1 (on rankings at least) Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard also happens to have lost just 1 match in 39 at this tournament while winning it 5 times and has the chance to equal Bjorn Borg's record of 6 French Open titles.
The main threat in this section of the draw is Nadal's one and only French Open conquerer, Robin Soderling. The courts here in Paris really suit the Swede's game and he will remember he has beaten Nadal here before, although he will have to erase the ease of his defeat in the Final last season.
Other threats in this section are Mardy Fish, the highest ranked American and a significantly improved player on this surface and Fernando Verdasco, although the Spaniard has been in a rut of form for almost 12 months now.
John Isner is the first opponent for Nadal, but I dont expect problems on this surface and the first real test could be the potential 3rd Round meeting with Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko has not really been in the best of form this season, but has won a title on clay courts and could at least push the Spaniard.
12 wins from 12 against Fernando Verdasco, a potential 4th Round opponent, means Nadal is almost certain to be a Quarter Finalist.
At that stage I would expect to see a Nadal-Soderling Quarter Final, but again would favour the Spaniard to win as long as there are no injury issues.
Second Quarter
The highest seed in this section is World Number 4 Andy Murray and I would guess he could not be happier with the way the draw has panned out. The British player looks to have a fairly relaxing opening 2 Rounds of the tournament and then could face a couple of big servers in the forms of Milos Raonic in the 3rd Round and Alexander Dolgopolov in the 4th Round.
Raonic is a definite star in the making, but the clay courts look likely to be his least favoured surface and he has had a few injury concerns to deal with of late, while Dolgopolov is very inconsistent. Both of these players are likely to push Murray, but ultimately come up short.
There are a couple of dangerous players that could face Murray in the Quarter Finals in the forms of Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro. Melzer reached the Semi Finals in this tournament last season but has not been in the best of form of late. Almagro, on the other hand, is completely comfortable on a clay court and also gave Rafael Nadal a tough time on this surface last season.
IF Almagro can negotiate the early rounds with as little effort as possible, I think he can be a real threat to win this Quarter.
Third Quarter
This section of the draw looks set to provide the most intriguing Quarter Final as David Ferrer and Roger Federer look set on a collision course next week.
Federer has been overlooked by many coming into this tournament, but has been handed a tricky, yet more than achievable, section to negotiate. An opener against Feliciano Lopez looks more intriguing after their close battle in Madrid, but these courts will not help Lopez' game and I expect the former World Number 1 to get through.
Federer also has a couple of tough looking games with Janko Tipsarevic and Stanislas Wawrinka to get through before the Quarter Finals, but both players are inconsistent and may struggle to mentally believe they can beat Federer in 3 out of 5 set matches.
David Ferrer's path through to the clash with Federer looks a lot more straight forward with the toughest assignment being a potential 4th Round clash with home favourite Gael Monfils. Monfils has beaten Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, including once at this tournament, but has been struggling to string wins together.
Federer has beaten Ferrer in all 12 previous meetings, including 4 times on clay, and it would be hard to see Ferrer overturn that here in the longer formats of a Grand Slam. Ferrer has been in better recent form on this surface than the Swiss man, but mentally it could be hard for him to overcome this hurdle.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw is where the current World Number 2, Novak Djokovic, has been placed and I cant say he would have been overly happy with the tough nature of his draw.
This section has some real dangerous characters in the form of Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, and arguably most of all, Juan Martin Del Potro all standing in the way of progress.
Del Potro was the one man I considered the most dangerous floater in the draw as his seeding would mean an early meeting for one of the top 4 seeds. The Argentine looked set to miss this tournament when injuring himself in Madrid, but he announced he would play and has been talking up his chances.
I would expect him to get through to a 3rd Round clash with Djokovic and it is entirely possible that could go the distance if Del Potro is not feeling any effects from his first 2 Rounds in the tournament.
Following that clash, Djokovic is likely to play either Richard Gasquet (who beat Federer in Rome) or Thomas Bellucci, the Brazilian who was a set and a break up against Djokovic in Madrid. Either one of those opponents will give Djokovic another test and this is when any doubts about the Serb's fitness will be shown up.
The Quarter Final is likely to see Tomas Berdych face the World Number 2- Berdych was a Semi Finalist here last year and the clay courts in Paris definitely favour his game. Even if Djokovic is still unbeaten by this time, I have no idea what kind of physical state he will find himself.
Semi Finals and Final
At this stage of the competition, I would fully expect Rafael Nadal to negotiate whoever has come out on the Second Quarter, be it Andy Murray or Nicolas Almagro. I also expect the Spaniard would have had the least amount on court out of the 4 players left at this stage.
The other half of the draw is likely to see a fresher Roger Federer facing an opponent that could have already had a very tough time getting through what looks like a loaded Fourth Quarter.
While it is hard to suggest Novak Djokovic's run has already come to an end by this stage, the draw has not been kind to him and it is a real possibility that it is Tomas Berdych facing Federer here.
Whoever it may be will be in for a really hard game as they are likely to have spent the most amount of time on court and that may just give Federer the opportunity to face his old rival in the Final.
Roger Federer has been quoted in the press this week where he is perhaps questioning the mental state that Rafael Nadal may be in after losing 4 straight Masters Finals to Novak Djokovic. This will likely be something Nadal has heard or read himself and I think the Spaniard would only be more focused to prove a point by retaining his crown in dominating fashion.
I am really looking forward to the next couple of weeks as I expect a strong tournament with some intriguing matches. Let us hope the rain stays away in Paris and we all have a profitable tournament.
My Picks: Rafael Nadal win the tournament @ 2.0 (5 Units)
Roger Federer win the tournament @ 17.0 (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych win the tournament @ 100 (0.5 Units E/W)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)