It's almost the business end of the week as we reach the Semi Finals of the 4 tournaments running. We have had a few surprises, for example James Ward still being an active participant, but these things happen when the 250 point events arrive.
Rafael Nadal has not looked right all week and earned a well deserved rest following his defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday in the Quarter Finals.
I mean you might not think that is the case if you have been following the BBC's coverage of the event over the week. In fact, you might believe Wimbledon had started a couple weeks earlier than usual with the emphasis they are putting on this event.
While it is nice for players to get a feel for the grass underneath their feet, do not forget a lot of players are honing their skills and getting used to the surface and the bigger picture is performing from June 20th-July 3rd for most of the players.
It is no surprise that the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic felt it was more productive resting up in anticipation of Wimbledon than taking part in an a small event for few ranking points.
In saying that, I am glad for James Ward that he is getting a bit of attention for his performances this week. HOWEVER, he needs to translate that game into the challengers if he wants to move into the top 200 because most of the British public will soon forget about him once Wimbledon is over.
Ward needs to start dominating challenger events so he can become a regular feature on the main tour, but too many British players show some form either here at Queens or in the early Rounds at Wimbledon and then disappear for good (example: Chris Eaton qualified for Wimbledon and made it through at least 1 Round before losing to Dmitry Tursunov. Many were expecting big things but he has won just 3 and lost 9 on grass since and was struggling to qualify for this event last time I noticed him).
On to the Picks:
Halle
Philipp Petzschner win vs Tomas Berdych: So I am going to have a small play on the underdog to cause a surprise here. Petzschner is seriously underestimated on the grass courts to cause a shock here against a player that has been more out of form in recent weeks and struggling to rediscover his high levels of form.
Petzschner beat the dangerous Milos Raonic in 3 sets yesterday, but his grass court pedigree was stamped last year when he lost to Roger Federer in 2 tight sets here in Halle at this stage, while also pushing eventual Wimbledon Champion Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at the Grand Slam.
Berdych beat Troicki yesterday in 2 sets, but has not really been playing well all week and Petzschner may just take advantage of that.
Berdych leads the head to head 3-1, but all the matches have been tight affairs. 3 of the 4 matches have gone the distance, while the other was won by Berdych 7-5, 6-4. Berdych has won all 3 matches on the faster hard courts, while Petzschner's win came on the clay.
I wouldn't go overboard with the stakes just because Petzschner can be a little erratic in his play, but the odds are just tasty enough for me to want to be involved.
Queens
Andy Murray - 2.5 games vs Andy Roddick: Andy Murray has definitely been moving more freely on his ankle and must feel this tournament is there for the taking for the 2nd time in his career. In fact, the winner of this match will feel they are the favourites to go through and win this tournament.
The conditions at Queens have been a lot slower than previous years, even if the ace count has been particularly high in a couple of matches, and this will give the better returner in Andy Murray a chance to win this match.
Roddick has not played a lot of matches in recent weeks, but has looked better in each passing match this week. However, he is giving up a few chances on his own serve and that could spell the end for him here.
The American is clearly one of the better grass court players around, but I have Murray only behind Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on this surface.
Murray has the better groundstrokes and should win the majority of rallies once they get past shots 4-5 and the British Number 1 has been serving pretty well in his 2 matches this week.
Murray leads the head to head 6-3 (not including non-ATP matches), although it is 1-1 on grass courts.
This is their first meeting since THAT Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009 which was won by Roddick in 4 sets and I think it would take a similar level of performance if Roddick wants to win this one today.
MY PICKS: Philipp Petzschner win @ 2.88 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 2.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 5.95 Units (- 0.34 Units yesterday)
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