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Thursday 30 June 2011

Wimbledon Day 10 Picks- Women's Semi Finals

The Men's Quarter Finals saw what could be one of the biggest surprises in recent Wimbledon history when Roger Federer lost from 2 sets up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

A lot of people are talking of this as being an 'end of an era' for Federer, but I still think the Swiss Master has a Grand Slam in him with the right kind of draw. Tsonga is one of these players that can be tough to knock off when he is playing his 'A' game and I think Federer was unfortunate to run into him in such form.

Tsonga played the big points well in the final 3 sets- just take a look at the games where he broke the Federer serve! Federer was also at 0-30 on the Tsonga serve on at least 4/5 occasions in the final 3 sets but could not manage to move on to a break point, another disappointment for the former World Number 1.

I was surprised to see how much Federer was still able to smile in his press conference and I do believe he will be right back up there when the US Open rolls around in August/September.


The loss for Federer also meant one of my outright picks, the top 4 making the Semi Finals, was also scuppered. However, on a brighter note, my pick for Rafael Nadal to win the Men's event has shortened considerably.


Thursday is the day the Women's event sets up the Final for Saturday. Both Semi Finals look interesting on paper so lets move on to Day 10 Picks:


Petra Kvitova to win vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has been on the brink of making a really big move on the tour in recent seasons and has now made her first Grand Slam Semi Final. However, Azarenka is in for one tough battle against Petra Kvitova.

Kvitova is clearly at home on the grass and she has come on leaps and bounds on the WTA Tour since reaching the Semi Final here last year. That result clearly gave her the belief that she can compete at this level and she is now having her best year and has moved into the World's top 8.

Kvitova reached the Final at Eastbourne in the lead up to Wimbledon and she has impressed me with the way she is controlling matches using her serve and heavy groundstrokes off both wings.

The Czech player has dropped just 1 set in the tournament, but she has not given up more than 3 games in any of her other sets competed.

Azarenka is also a big hitter, but it is a shame that she is more known for her very annoying noises she makes while hitting a shot rather than her skills on court. While she too has only dropped one set in this tournament, I do think Azarenka has shown mental frailties in the past and that could be a factor in this match.

Kvitova definitely has the more reliable serve, in my opinion, while both are capable of hitting big shots of the ground. The match could come down to which of the players is able to unleash their big shots first, and that is where Kvitova's serve could make the difference.

Azarenka and Kvitova have a 2-2 head to head, but it is the Czech who may have an additional edge there as she has won their last 2 meetings including at Wimbledon last year.


Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has had a brilliant tournament but I feel this is going to be a step too far for the Wild Card. The German has won 11 matches in a row on grass this year, dropping just 2 sets in those wins, but this match will clearly be her toughest challenge.

Lisicki does have a great first serve and will also look to move Maria Sharapova around the court with the use of the drop shot that hurt Marion Bartoli so much in the last Round. However, she has not had a lot of matches on the main tour before the grass court season and plays arguably the most in form player on the WTA Tour.

Sharapova could do nothing wrong in her win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday, but this will be a tougher test. The Russian will need to serve well and try to dominate the rallies with her heavy groundstrokes.

Sharapova has had few problems throughout this tournament and is yet to drop a set. She will be given further confidence from her 6-2, 6-0 crushing of Lisicki earlier this year in Miami and I think she feels this tournament is hers for the taking.

Both of the sets could be close, but ultimately I see Sharapova prevailing and going through to the Final in straight sets.


MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova win @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.81 Units (- 0.18 Units Day 9)

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