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Friday, 1 July 2011

Wimbledon Day 11 Picks- Men's Semi Finals

It was a good day yesterday and today I don't feel like giving too much back to the enemy... The Men's Semi Finals are very difficult matches to predict but I will have minimum stakes on both matches and see where it leaves us.

Now on to Day 11 Picks:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga created one of the biggest shocks in recent Wimbledon history as he came back from 2 sets down to defeat Roger Federer in the Quarter Finals. Now the question is whether he can back up that performance against the man who has lost just once in 2011.

Novak Djokovic looked flat and out of sorts in his win over Bernard Tomic and it seems clear that the grass is not his favourite surface. The Serb has had a pretty decent tournament all things considering, but the performances against Tomic and Marcos Baghdatis has worried me.

There is also the added pressure on Djokovic of reaching the World Number 1 spot with a win here, something that is almost impossible to ignore for the player regardless of what they say.

Tsonga will need to continue playing the offensive tennis that has taken him this far. He will need to serve big and take it to Djokovic when he sees second serves.

The big man also holds a 5-2 head to head record over Djokovic, although he was fortunate to take advantage of an ill opponent when they last played at the Australian Open in 2010.

If Tsonga can serve big, he may just replicate Tomas Berdych by beating Federer and Djokovic in consecutive rounds to reach the Wimbledon Final.

Rafael Nadal win 3-1 vs Andy Murray: This match represents a huge chance for Andy Murray to make history and reach the Wimbledon Final, the first time for a British player in the Open era.

Rafael Nadal did have an injury scare in the competition, but he looked like he was moving free enough in his win over Mardy Fish and rightly is the favourite to take home the Wimbledon crown for the 3rd time. However, he knows how difficult it will be to beat Murray after overcoming him in Paris in a match where he saved a huge number of break points and played the big points brilliantly.

Nadal has won their 2 previous meetings at Wimbledon without dropping a set, but this match looks certain to be closer with the way Murray is playing.

Unfortunately for British hopes, Murray's second serve is still a liability that could be exposed by Nadal, while the Scot also seems to play within himself at the crucial times in sets.

I look to see Nadal take control of the rallies when Murray has to serve a second, and I also believe the Spaniard has more belief in his game on this slow surface.

I do expect Murray to take a set this time, but Nadal to prove too strong again and break British hearts.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 @ 7.5 BetFred (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 17.67 Units (+ 3.86 Units Day 10)

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