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Monday, 18 July 2011

Tennis Picks July 18th

After a very disappointing week all round last week, I am hoping for a little more luck and hope to get back into making profits.

Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:

Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.

In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.

Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.

The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.

Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.

I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.

The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.

Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.

Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.

Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.

I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.

I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.

James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.

I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.

Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.

I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.

MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

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