A very good week was close to becoming an excellent week as it looked like my outright pick on Marin Cilic (33-1 before the tournament started) was going to reach the Semi Finals as he had 2 match points in his match with Mikhail Youzhny.
Alas, it was not to be as both were saved and then a very lucky net cord led to Youzhny taking the final set tiebreak 8-6.
I dont think I will be making many more picks from Hamburg this week as the matches are beginning to get very tight to call and I dont think its correct to risk making picks when I am not sure how the matches will develop.
The final pick from this tournament this week is:
Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Simon: Both players can be a little hit and miss and they never make matches easy for themselves, but I think the play has to be the outsider in this one.
Mikhail Youzhny is very much at home on the clay courts and has had a decent week so far with the possibility to reach his first Final this season. He was erratic in his win over Cilic in the last Round but Youzhny has the capability to play with plenty of variation, a key for his success on the clay courts.
Gilles Simon is also a solid clay court player and will look to defend well to keep himself in points and grind down his opponents. He has tried to play with a little more aggression this season and that does leave him prone to making a lot more unforced errors, an area where Youzhny could take advantage.
It is also interesting to note that Youzhny has a 7-1 head to head record against Simon, although the last match was the first time Simon had won a match against the Russian. None of the matches have taken place on clay, but the fact Simon has struggled against him on the other surfaces shows that Youzhny has the consistency to break down the Simon game.
It could be a close one, but I think Youzhny can come out on top and I was surprised to see him as the underdog.
MY PICK: Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.38 Units (All picks completed from July 22nd)
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