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Friday, 22 July 2011

Tennis Picks 22nd July ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals

It was not a good day for the picks in Atlanta last night with both Lleyton Hewitt and Xavier Malisse losing matches they should not be. I did take a silver lining from that disappointment though as both of those players were in Mardy Fish's section, my outright pick of the week.

Fish now faces Somdev Devvarman and then the winner of the Ryan Harrison-Rajeev Ram match to reach the Final and I very much expect that to happen.

We have reached the Quarter Finals and it is here that you can really tell a stellar field did not get together as the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu are also still in the tournament.

Thunderstorms are expected today so there could be a couple of rain delays. The other point to mention here is that the matches start at noon local time rather than the 4pm starts they have been having all week.

Now on to the Picks:

Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games: Both of these guys are reliant on a big serve on which they can build the rest of their game. The best thing about the total games market is this can be covered even if one of the players was to win in straight sets by a scoreline of 7-6, 6-4.

I do expect at least one tie break to be played, as happened in their only previous meeting, and it is also possible that the match could go the distance.

Neither is a great returner, but Anderson has an edge in that department, so Gilles Muller must serve better than he did when defeating Robby Ginepri.

I expect a lot of short points between the two players and I do favour Anderson to eventually come out on top- I just hope its a tough match no matter who wins.

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: I had a couple of concerns about how Mardy Fish would rebound from losing 2 Davis Cup ties in 5 sets last week, but all that was put to rest as he completely dominated Nicolas Mahut last night and it is no surprise to see the American is the favourite to retain his title from last season.

Somdev Devvarman had a real tussle in Round 1 with Ryan Sweeting, but then had a comfortable win over Tatsuma Ito last night. However, this test is a significant raise in level for the Indian player and I feel his serve is too prone to breaking down to have a real impact.

Fish will create a lot of pressure on Devvarman with his strength of shot while the serve is more consistent and has a 2-0 head to head record against his opponent, winning both matches on grass and losing just 6 games in 4 sets.

I would expect the Number 1 seed to come through with a scoreline of 6-4, 6-2 or something similar.

John Isner - 3.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: John Isner looked a little tired in his match with James Blake, something that has to be considered unusual considering he had at least 10 days off since his last match. It may also have been down to the mental pressure of having to hold serve in what was a tough encounter.

This time Isner should be able to see more chances against Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has taken advantage of a soft section of the draw although has had a bit of trouble in doing so.

Lu is a tough question on his day, but has struggled for form on the main tour all season. He is a decent hard court player but he will be under immense pressure to hold serve if Isner is playing to form.

That could lead to the pressure points and I can see a break in each set for the big American to see him through to the Semi Finals.

MY PICKS: Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games @ 1.90 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 9.88 Units (All picks in from 21st July)

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