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Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Tennis Picks July 12th

It was disappointing to see Gilles Simon lose out to Albert Montanes last night as that ended my outright interest in the Stuttgart tournament at the first hurdle and also saw the picks begin badly this week.

Hopefully, tomorrow brings a better reward so on to the Picks:

Double: Potito Starace vs Julian Reister and Igor Andreev vs Diego Junqueira: I am picking these two men as they have far more clay court experience, and play at a higher level on a consistent basis respectively.

Potito Starace's main body of good work comes on the clay courts and 85% of his wins in the last 4 seasons have been on clay courts. He has also won 74% of his matches on clay in that time and comes in off the back of Davis Cup success with Italy.

Reister has lost 10 of his last 11 matches on all surfaces, but does favour the clay. Unfortunately, the main tour looks a little too good for him at this time and he now plays a player that does the majority of his damage on this surface.

Igor Andreev has never really fulfilled the potential he clearly has, but the majority of his success remains on the clay courts. He might not have had to go through 3 Rounds of Qualifiers as his opponent has, and that is a slight concern as he has not played since the first week of Wimbledon.

In saying that, Diego Junqueira has not won on the main tour in 2 years and has been mainly playing on the Challenger tour. While he has grown up on the clay, I expect Andreev will be too strong.

Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: This looks a mismatch on paper, but Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and faces a young hungry German player here.

Davydenko has won in Munich already this season, but comes in to the match in poor form and will need to pick his game up early. However, Stebe has not played an opponent like Davydenko, a player that can out hustle and grind down the best of opponents.

I just think Davydenko will eventually be too consistent for the novice and pull away for a 2 set win.

Jeremy Chardy vs Tobias Kamke: I should have learnt my lesson in backing short priced French players after Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon have let me down in the last few days, but I am going to the well again, mainly because I want to oppose Kamke.

Kamke will have been travelling back from the United States after reaching a Semi Final on the grass of Newport so it could be an adjustment for him mentally in this game.

Add to these factors the issue of Kamke struggling on clay so far in his career, and the pendulum swings towards Chardy here.

Chardy himself has struggled a little bit on the slower surface in his last 2 seasons, but has previously found success on the clay courts.

As I said, I am not the biggest fan of short priced French players, but the odds are just tempting enough on this occasion.

MY PICKS: Potito Starace and Igor Andreev Double @ 1.82 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 1.61 Stan James (2 Units)


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