It was another good day for the picks in Hamburg as we moved into the Quarter Final stage of the tournament.
Marin Cilic is still in business as our outright pick from this event, but he faces a tough match against Mikhail Youzhny, a player that has a 4-1 head to head record against him. Cilic has been effective in patches during the week, but that second serve remains a problem and his unforced error count could really work against him against a player with the ability Youzhny has.
The bookmakers seem to agree with the price shortening all the time for the Russian to come out on top. Personally I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Cilic can repeat his win from Marseille over Youzhny and still be involved in the tournament.
Others who may have backed Cilic at the start of the tournament do have the opportunity to lay him in the outright market at 10s on Betfair.
Overall, the Quarter Finals do not look that easy to predict as you can make a case for both sides in the first 3 matches to be played during the day. The Gael Monfils-Gilles Simon match looks very close to call although I do expect Monfils to eventually make his way into the Semi Final.
Youzhny is rightly the favourite on form in his match with Cilic but, as I have already mentioned, I am hopeful Cilic can spring a surprise.
The Florian Mayer-Nicolas Almagro match is an interesting one that the latter should win if he keeps serving the way he was today in his win over Phillip Kohlschreiber. However, Almagro lost his last match with Mayer and the German uses plenty of variation in his game that could cause Almagro problems if he is not quite up to par.
Now on to the Pick:
Jurgen Melzer vs Fernando Verdasco: Now I have backed Jurgen Melzer twice already this week and he has brought home the bacon both times, and now I feel I will be third time lucky too as I go back to the well with a player that had been struggling for form recently.
Melzer obviously must enjoy playing in Hamburg, reaching the Final last year and he has been fairly solid, if not spectacular, in his two matches this week.
He faces another lefty in the form of Fernando Verdasco- the Spaniard has really been struggling to put wins together although winning two matches already should give him confidence.
Out of the two players, I feel Verdasco's serve is a little more erratic, and I also think the Spaniard's groundstrokes have been inconsistent for much of the season. Obviously if he puts them together, he will give Melzer plenty of problems, but Verdasco has not done that too often.
Verdasco has only improved to 8-6 on the clay this season, another indicator of the struggles he has had considering he was 35-14 in his previous 2 seasons on the surface.
Fernando Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, but it was Melzer who won their last meeting. That match took place on the clay courts of Madrid as Melzer came through in straight sets. The Austrian had also pushed Verdasco to 3 sets in Barcelona on clay so he can match up against him.
Melzer has been listed as the underdog in this match and I think that is a price worth taking as my only pick from Hamburg tomorrow.
MY PICK: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Not including picks from 21st July Atlanta which is currently in a rain delay at the time of writing)
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