Wimbledon Day 4 Picks

The first 3 days of this tournament have been hard work to say the least, with matches being delayed thanks to the weather, while a few shocking results have hit the picks. That does not mean we are falling behind, but the profit margin is hardly worth writing home about.

I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.

On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.

Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.


Now on to Day 4 Picks:


Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.

Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.

Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.


Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.

Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.

On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.

Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.


Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.

Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.

Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.


Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.

Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.

Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.

A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.


Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.

Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.

Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.


MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)