First things first, congratulations to Na Li for winning the Women's title here yesterday. It was probably the best performance from someone on the WTA Tour that I have seen all season for about a set and a half.
There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.
Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.
However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.
I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!
Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.
Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.
Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.
There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).
There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)
I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.
I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.
The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.
Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav
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