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Friday 3 June 2011

French Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals

The Women's draw saw Chinese player Na Li come through to play the defending Champion Francesca Schiavone after both won in straight sets on Thursday.

This could be a fascinating Final and I think the winner will come from who can enforce their game on the other in what I expect to be a tight battle.

But before we get there we have the Men's Semi Finals to look forward to and I would clear any schedules to make sure the two are watched on Friday- I think we are in for a special day of tennis.


Now on to the Semi Final picks:


Rafael Nadal win 3-0 in sets vs Andy Murray: I have had to think about this for a little bit of time before settling on this pick as Rafael Nadal had not been playing his best tennis before meeting Robin Soderling in the last Round, while Andy Murray performed brilliantly when the pair met in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago.

However, after looking at the match up, I just feel Nadal has the edge in terms of movement, thanks even more so to Murray's ankle injury, and I also feel Murray has not performed to as high a level as you would believe if you read the British press.

His heart and determination to recover deficits in sets and matches has to be commended, but Nadal is not the type of player that will allow people to get off the floor once the Spaniard has them there.

I also feel Murray is too prone to throwing in 1/2 bad service games per set in recent matches and that is another issue that will bite him here. Murray has talked about patiently building a point on clay courts, but that too will receive the ultimate test on Friday.

Any remnants of an ankle injury will be brutally exposed by Nadal at every opportunity and he seems to have too much.

Nadal also leads the head to head 10-5 (3-0 on clay courts) and won their last meeting in a Grand Slam in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.


Roger Federer + 5.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: It is hard for me to really believe Roger Federer is getting just shy of a set full of games against Novak Djokovic in this match, especially considering how well the Swiss former World Number 1 is playing.

We all know about the records Djokovic can reach if he wins this match, including becoming the new World Number 1, but I just feel the bookmakers have overlooked Federer here.

He will need to serve well if Federer wants to win this game. The forehand has also got to work while he should look to use the slice and short angles with his backhand to try and nullify Djokovic's shots down the line off his own backhand.

Federer has also looked supreme in the tournament, not yet dropping a set, and I genuinely feel he has the chance to win this match outright.

Djokovic has been in wonderful form all season and has had 4 days off thanks to Fabio Fognini retiring before a ball had been hit in anger in the Quarter Finals. The Serb was impressive against Richard Gasquet in his last match, but games with Federer have been historically tough.

Federer leads the head to head 13-9 (2-1 on clay courts), although Djokovic has won all 3 meetings this season.

Djokovic has also beaten Federer in the last 2 Grand Slam events, both in this Round, although it was 3 tight sets in Australia and a 5 set classic at the US Open last Summer.

They have had plenty of tight matches and I dont think this one will be much different. Federer can prove he is still someone we should talk about when it comes to Grand Slam winners and he can make a real statement here.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-0 sets @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer + 5.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 21.59 Units (+ 3.82 Units Day 12)

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