Wimbledon Day 7 Picks

Last week proved to be a happy hunting ground for the picks. I was hoping to come online with a recap of the week's events, but have been out for most of the day so did not have the time to do so.

I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:


Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.

Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.

Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.

I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.

Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.

However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.

Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.

This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.

I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.

Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.

Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.

The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.

Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.

The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.

Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.

The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.

Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.


Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.

Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.

Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.

Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.


MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)