It is coming up to the end of the English Premier League season and that only means we have two Grand Slams in the world of tennis to keep us a little occupied in the coming months since we are not being blessed with a full international tournament this Summer.
All the talk coming into Roland Garros this season is around the Novak Djokovic 37 match winning run to open the 2011 season. Djokovic has collected the Australian Open and 4 Masters Events during this run and has a real chance to overtake John McEnroe's 42 game winning run to start a season.
In saying all that, I still believe this will the hardest tournament for Djokovic to win in terms of pushing his fitness and having the task to eventually beat Rafael Nadal over a best of 5 set match. The Serb looked fatigued in Rome and it will be interesting to see how he holds up in the next fortnight.
Men's tennis is in a really good period at the moment with great rivalries developing and there is plenty of depth in the draw. I will break down each Quarter and eventually lead to a couple of picks that can hopefully bring home a profit at the end of the tournament.
I will also be putting up picks for each day of the tournament so without further ado, lets look at the draw:
First Quarter
The first quarter is headed up by the World Number 1 (on rankings at least) Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard also happens to have lost just 1 match in 39 at this tournament while winning it 5 times and has the chance to equal Bjorn Borg's record of 6 French Open titles.
The main threat in this section of the draw is Nadal's one and only French Open conquerer, Robin Soderling. The courts here in Paris really suit the Swede's game and he will remember he has beaten Nadal here before, although he will have to erase the ease of his defeat in the Final last season.
Other threats in this section are Mardy Fish, the highest ranked American and a significantly improved player on this surface and Fernando Verdasco, although the Spaniard has been in a rut of form for almost 12 months now.
John Isner is the first opponent for Nadal, but I dont expect problems on this surface and the first real test could be the potential 3rd Round meeting with Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko has not really been in the best of form this season, but has won a title on clay courts and could at least push the Spaniard.
12 wins from 12 against Fernando Verdasco, a potential 4th Round opponent, means Nadal is almost certain to be a Quarter Finalist.
At that stage I would expect to see a Nadal-Soderling Quarter Final, but again would favour the Spaniard to win as long as there are no injury issues.
Second Quarter
The highest seed in this section is World Number 4 Andy Murray and I would guess he could not be happier with the way the draw has panned out. The British player looks to have a fairly relaxing opening 2 Rounds of the tournament and then could face a couple of big servers in the forms of Milos Raonic in the 3rd Round and Alexander Dolgopolov in the 4th Round.
Raonic is a definite star in the making, but the clay courts look likely to be his least favoured surface and he has had a few injury concerns to deal with of late, while Dolgopolov is very inconsistent. Both of these players are likely to push Murray, but ultimately come up short.
There are a couple of dangerous players that could face Murray in the Quarter Finals in the forms of Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro. Melzer reached the Semi Finals in this tournament last season but has not been in the best of form of late. Almagro, on the other hand, is completely comfortable on a clay court and also gave Rafael Nadal a tough time on this surface last season.
IF Almagro can negotiate the early rounds with as little effort as possible, I think he can be a real threat to win this Quarter.
Third Quarter
This section of the draw looks set to provide the most intriguing Quarter Final as David Ferrer and Roger Federer look set on a collision course next week.
Federer has been overlooked by many coming into this tournament, but has been handed a tricky, yet more than achievable, section to negotiate. An opener against Feliciano Lopez looks more intriguing after their close battle in Madrid, but these courts will not help Lopez' game and I expect the former World Number 1 to get through.
Federer also has a couple of tough looking games with Janko Tipsarevic and Stanislas Wawrinka to get through before the Quarter Finals, but both players are inconsistent and may struggle to mentally believe they can beat Federer in 3 out of 5 set matches.
David Ferrer's path through to the clash with Federer looks a lot more straight forward with the toughest assignment being a potential 4th Round clash with home favourite Gael Monfils. Monfils has beaten Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, including once at this tournament, but has been struggling to string wins together.
Federer has beaten Ferrer in all 12 previous meetings, including 4 times on clay, and it would be hard to see Ferrer overturn that here in the longer formats of a Grand Slam. Ferrer has been in better recent form on this surface than the Swiss man, but mentally it could be hard for him to overcome this hurdle.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw is where the current World Number 2, Novak Djokovic, has been placed and I cant say he would have been overly happy with the tough nature of his draw.
This section has some real dangerous characters in the form of Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, and arguably most of all, Juan Martin Del Potro all standing in the way of progress.
Del Potro was the one man I considered the most dangerous floater in the draw as his seeding would mean an early meeting for one of the top 4 seeds. The Argentine looked set to miss this tournament when injuring himself in Madrid, but he announced he would play and has been talking up his chances.
I would expect him to get through to a 3rd Round clash with Djokovic and it is entirely possible that could go the distance if Del Potro is not feeling any effects from his first 2 Rounds in the tournament.
Following that clash, Djokovic is likely to play either Richard Gasquet (who beat Federer in Rome) or Thomas Bellucci, the Brazilian who was a set and a break up against Djokovic in Madrid. Either one of those opponents will give Djokovic another test and this is when any doubts about the Serb's fitness will be shown up.
The Quarter Final is likely to see Tomas Berdych face the World Number 2- Berdych was a Semi Finalist here last year and the clay courts in Paris definitely favour his game. Even if Djokovic is still unbeaten by this time, I have no idea what kind of physical state he will find himself.
Semi Finals and Final
At this stage of the competition, I would fully expect Rafael Nadal to negotiate whoever has come out on the Second Quarter, be it Andy Murray or Nicolas Almagro. I also expect the Spaniard would have had the least amount on court out of the 4 players left at this stage.
The other half of the draw is likely to see a fresher Roger Federer facing an opponent that could have already had a very tough time getting through what looks like a loaded Fourth Quarter.
While it is hard to suggest Novak Djokovic's run has already come to an end by this stage, the draw has not been kind to him and it is a real possibility that it is Tomas Berdych facing Federer here.
Whoever it may be will be in for a really hard game as they are likely to have spent the most amount of time on court and that may just give Federer the opportunity to face his old rival in the Final.
Roger Federer has been quoted in the press this week where he is perhaps questioning the mental state that Rafael Nadal may be in after losing 4 straight Masters Finals to Novak Djokovic. This will likely be something Nadal has heard or read himself and I think the Spaniard would only be more focused to prove a point by retaining his crown in dominating fashion.
I am really looking forward to the next couple of weeks as I expect a strong tournament with some intriguing matches. Let us hope the rain stays away in Paris and we all have a profitable tournament.
My Picks: Rafael Nadal win the tournament @ 2.0 (5 Units)
Roger Federer win the tournament @ 17.0 (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych win the tournament @ 100 (0.5 Units E/W)
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