French Open Day 4 Picks

For a little while yesterday, it looked like we were going to see one of the biggest surprises in a Grand Slam in recent seasons when Rafa Nadal found himself 2-1 down in sets to the American John Isner.

The faster balls and conditions here in Paris meant the big serving Isner was able to win a couple of tie-breaks to go in front and it is interesting to hear a lot of people talking about this being a 'bad sign' for Nadal and his supporters... I disagree and not just because he is my overall pick to win the tournament.

Nadal has now seen the conditions here and he is still in the tournament. The likes of Isner and, to a lesser extent, Ivo Karlovic have the games to cause many problems, even at Grand Slam level. They are not really threats to win the tournament but they can catch players cold.

I remember seeing Isner beat Andy Roddick at the US Open a couple of years ago in a surprise result. In that game, Roddick had so many chances to win but could not capitalise. Karlovic reached the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon in that same year.

The key here is Nadal has survived. He should be good to go until the Quarter Finals when he will face his only conquerer in this tournament, Robin Soderling, and I think this also gives Nadal a real chance to grow into this tournament.


Yesterday's picks brought in more profit for us. Santiago Giraldo had so many chances in his game with Pablo Andujar but could not make the breakthrough and eventually fell in 3 sets.

Fernando Verdasco recovered from a break down in the 4th set to win 3-1 and bring that pick home, while Robin Soderling's game with Benjamin Becker was voided when the German pulled out of the tournament.


Now let's move on to Day 4 Picks as the tournament reaches Round 2:

Gael Monfils - 7.5 games vs Guillermo Rufin: This is an all-French battle that should be watched by a full crowd as it goes on 2nd on the main court. Monfils is one of the most infruiating players on the tour, mixing his obvious talent with a passive game play that allows opponents to dictate the games.

Rufin is a young player, but has not had the best of time on the main tour and he will have to hit a lot of balls to beat 'The Rat' on a clay court.

I expect Monfils to come through in straight sets and he should cover the spread.


Mikhail Youzhny - 5.5 games vs Mikhael Kukushkin: This section of the draw really opened up when Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych made their early exits, and I think the Russian is the man that can take advantage of it. He plays a player in Kukushkin whose game is much more suited to the faster surfaces. I do have a slight concern that the faster balls being used and the conditions could help Kukushkin, but I expect Youzhny will have too much for him here.

Youzhny must also try to concentrate and not throw in a terrible set here.


Sam Stosur - 6.5 games vs Simona Halep: Sam Stosur has proved herself more than capable of playing on the clay courts, either here in Paris or at other tournaments. Stosur reached the Final here last year, including a comfortable win over Simona Halep along the way.

Halep has also been struggling in recent tournaments before her 1st Round win here, losing games with quite a bit to spare. She is still young and improving her game, but is unfortunate to be running into the Australian who looks a real threat this year again.


Womens Treble: Daniele Hantuchova, Bethanie Mattek-Sands and  Svetlana Kuznetsova: This is a risky treble with 3 short favourites in the womens tournament, but I do feel all 3 should be able to come through their games. Both Daniela Hantuchova and Bethanie Mattek-Sands play players that they have strong head to head records against and players that they should know well and also match up well against.

Svetlana Kuznetsova plays Irina-Carmelia Begu, a player that beat her in 3 sets on the clay courts of Marbella. Kuznetsova has also been a little off her game in recent weeks and has been ignored in the build up to this tournament, but I do expect her to reverse that defeat here.


Mens Treble: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Albert Montanes and Stanislas Wawrinka: This is a less rewarding treble than the womens one, but again all 3 players should be able to come through their respective matches.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez meets the Turkish Number 1 Marsel Ilhan, but his clay court pedigree should prove too strong. Albert Montanes meets compratiot Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo who may struggle to replicate the form that beat Marin Cilic against an opponent that will know his game well and also holds a 5-2 head to head advantage.

Stanislas Wawrinka can be a hard player to read and drops far too many sloppy sets to really pose a threat at the Grand Slam level. He can be really good at times, while at others looking lost on the court. However, his 'B - Game' should be good enough to progress.


MY PICKS: Womens Treble: Hantuchova, Mattek-Sands and Kuznetsova @ 2.8 (2 Units)
Mens Treble: Garcia-Lopez, Montanes and Wawrinka @ 2.03 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 7.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 6.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)


French Open: + 1.04 Units