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Monday, 30 May 2011

French Open Day 9 Picks

The French Open tournament looks like it will put together some strong matches as the clay season draws to a close. There are some real surprising names left in the draw, but that should make it a little easier for the big names to meet each other.

Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.

Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.

The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.


The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.


Now on to Day 9 Picks:


Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.

Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.

It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.

Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.

Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.

The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.

Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.

Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.


MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)

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