French Open Day 11 Picks

Ouch!! That is the only way I can describe Day 10 for my picks which was the worst day of the tournament so far. Both Andu Murray and Roger Federer missed covering the spread by 2 games combined, while Francesca Schiavone fought back wonderfully well to win in 3 sets.

These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.

The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.

The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.

That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.


Now on to Day 11 Picks:


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.

It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.

Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.

Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.

Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.

Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).

Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.

Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.

Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.

Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.

I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.

Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.

Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.

However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.


I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.

I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.

Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)

French Open Day 10 Picks

Rafael Nadal continues to make progress in this tournament, but there is no doubt that he is feeling the pressure and admitted to being 'nervous' going into matches this year. He is not quite adjusted to the conditions but will need to be on top of his game when he faces Robin Soderling in the Quarter Finals.

Soderling won in straight sets against Gilles Simon, even after seemingly losing concentration in the 3rd set. I think the big hitting Swede is happy to have got through without having to expend too much energy and must feel he has a chance with the way Nadal is playing.

The other big news in the Men's tournament was the withdrawal of Fabio Fognini from his Quarter Final tie with Novak Djokovic. I dont think anyone seriously expected Fognini to test Djokovic, but it does mean the Serb has additional days to rest his body and get ready for the potential matches against Roger Federer and Nadal.


The Women's draw saw Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka- there seems to be some obvious dislike between the two and that can only make for better theatre if they can overcome Andrea Petkovic and Na Li in the last 8 respectively.

It is also not too far fetched to think whichever of those ladies gets through to the Final will be the favourite to win the tournament.


Now on to Day 10 Picks:

Roger Federer - 6.5 games vs Gael Monfils: I think Roger Federer was enjoying the David Ferrer-Gael Monfils match earlier in the day as the it went into a 5th set and I feel this could take its toll on Monfils for this match.

Federer has beaten Monfils twice before at the French Open, in the Semi Final in 2008 and the Quarter Final in 2009, and on both occasions he has done so with a bit to spare.

Monfils might keep it entertaining for a couple of sets, but he is also likely to 'tank' a set away and that will be enough to help Federer cover a spread that I expected to be at least 2 games higher.

Monfils does like performing to a crowd, as shown when he beat Federer in Paris last year, but I just think his lack of matches recently may play against him if he gets behind early.


Francesca Schiavone - 3.5 games vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I had to deliberate about picking this match for a little bit of time. Whereas I think the other match between Kuznetsova and Bartoli is really a pick 'em contest that I cannot separate, I just feel Schiavone's experience and game play will break Pavlyuchekova down eventually.

This is Pavlyuchenkova's first appearance in the Quarter Final of a Major, but Schiavone is the defending Champion here so knows what it takes to win the match. The Italian may not have the power that Pavlyuchenkova has, but she has the finesse that will expose the bad movement of the younger player.

Schivaone also leads the head to head 2-1 (1-0 on clay) and has won their only other meeting in a Major (last year at the US Open).

It is possible that this goes 3 sets, I just think Schiavone has too much at this moment of time on the red dirt.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units) Still Running from Day 9 with the score tied 2-2 in sets and 20-17 in games to Murray
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.83 BetFred (3 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 3.5 games @ 2.00 TitanBet (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 19.27 Units (+ 0.4 Units Day 9)

French Open Day 9 Picks

The French Open tournament looks like it will put together some strong matches as the clay season draws to a close. There are some real surprising names left in the draw, but that should make it a little easier for the big names to meet each other.

Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.

Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.

The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.


The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.


Now on to Day 9 Picks:


Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.

Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.

It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.

Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.

Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.

The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.

Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.

Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.


MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)