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Tuesday 24 May 2011

French Open Day 3 Picks

Day 2 was better for the single treble I had flagged up, which gives us the most minimal of profits going into Day 3.

The biggest news of Day 2 actually affected my staking plan for the tournament as Tomas Berdych was beaten by Stephane Robert. Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year, was cruising with a 2 set lead but then failed to follow through and was beaten in 5 sets.

It cant have made the Czech player feel much better knowing Robert had never won a 5 set match, never won at a Grand Slam and is currently ranked at Number 140 in the World.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer came through difficult looking 1st Round ties with the minimal of fuss, while the likes of Richard Gasquet, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfil, Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro all encountered few problems.

Hopefully the tournament will heat up as the week progresses as there are some cracking potential matches beginning to take shape.

Now on to the Day 3 picks:

Robin Soderling - 9.5 games vs Benjamin Becker: Over the last couple of years, Soderling has enjoyed some fine success at Roland Garros. This year he will be aided by the balls that move faster and conditions seem to suit him in Paris.

Add to the mixture that Becker has been off the tour for a few weeks and has not played a game on the red dirt this season and Soderling holds a 3-0 lead in the head to head record without losing a set, and the Swede has to be favoured.

The spread is big, but Soderling usually starts serving first and I imagine he may get off to a flyer with Becker being a little match rusty.


Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar: I am picking the underdog in this game for a couple of reasons. First off, Giraldo has beaten Andujar twice on this surface in their head to head, without losing a set, although both meetings were a few seasons ago and both took place in Giraldo's home country.

Giraldo has also picked up the better results of late on the red dirt, only being beaten by the likes of Rafa Nadal, Robin Soderling and Mardy Fish in recent tournaments, all top 10 players. Andujar had lost 4 in a row before beating Grigor Dimitrov and Julien Benneteau in Nice last week.

However, defeats to Paulo Lorenzi and Alejandro Falla are not such good results and I think Giraldo has the game to make his breakthrough in a Grand Slam after losing in 5 sets here and at Wimbledon last year.


Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Monaco: This is one of the most intriguing match ups on the entire 1st Round in the Men's draw as Fernando Verdasco is having a poor season so far and plays against a man he has struggled against in the past.

Verdasco may not have had the kind of year we have come to expect after he reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2009, but I have to admit he looked something close to his best in the first 2 sets against Robin Soderling in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He blew 3 match points in that game before losing in 3 sets, but has shown there is still some life in his tennis.

Monaco leads the head to head 7-2, winning 5 of their last 6 meetings, but the last 2 had extenuating circumstances and I can forgive Verdasco those defeats.

The balls are flying quicker through the courts and the conditions should give Verdasco the edge here. Mentally I can see him dropping 1 set in the contest, but I feel the Spaniard will come through in 4 sets against an opponent that he can outhit on a court with faster conditions as he did in Madrid 2 years ago.



My Picks: Robin Soderling - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Santiago Giraldo win @ 2.05 Canbet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 @ 4.0 Bet365 (1 Unit)


French Open Record: + 0.04 Units

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