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Friday, 5 August 2011

The English Championship Ante-Post Picks

It's almost time for the English domestic season to get up and running so I thought I would put down my picks for the upcoming season with yet another preview that I am sure many would have already read.

I will break down the different markets that I am looking to back and hopefully we will have something to celebrate in May 2012.


Push for the Title
The market is surprisingly not very tight at the top considering the nature of this Division over the last few seasons and there are two clear favourites in the 'Winner' market as the layers believe it will be either West Ham United or Leicester City that will take the crown.


I don't really disagree and it is the latter of those two teams that I feel has the best opportunity to win the Division with the classy nature of the signings they have made. Sven Goran Eriksson has been backed in the market by the owners of the club and you can only be impressed with the signings of the likes of Matt Mills, Kasper Schmeichel, John Paintsil, Paul Konchesky and David Nugent.


The loan capture of Michael Johnson from Manchester City could be the key to their success this season as the midfielder is a very effective operator. Leicester will look to get the best out of Johnson who has suffered with long term injury issues, but if they can get him out there for the majority of games, I can see him having a big season.


Sam Allardyce has made some good signings at Upton Park, particularly getting Kevin Nolan in from Newcastle, but there is still an element of doubt over which players will still be at the club after August 31st and so I do feel Leicester are the better option here.




Promotion
With the Championship being the way it is, there are plenty of prices that look reasonable when it comes to picking sides that may break into the Promised Land in May.

The top two teams I mentioned in the above section are understandably looking short, but that means there is a bit of value to be found in other places.

Last season we saw Norwich win successive promotions from League One through to the Premier League and it may be the turn of Southampton to follow suit this season.

The Saints are another side that have been backed by owners who believe the Premier League is their destiny and they have a very good manager in Nigel Adkins that would have experienced the pressures of the Championship in his time as manager of Scunthorpe.

They have not been as active in the transfer market as I thought they might be this Summer, but that means they have a settled squad and also have a very strong record at St Mary's over the last season. That could earn them a surprise place in the Premier League next May.


Relegation
According to the layers, Barnsley and Doncaster Rovers are the big favourites to go down this season and while I cannot argue with the former too much, I really feel the latter can survive under the guidance of Sean O'Driscoll.


That means there are going to be a couple of other places available that teams will want to avoid and I cannot help thinking that Peterborough United could be occupying one of them at the end of the season.


I have a slight soft spot for Peterborough as they are managed by Darren Ferguson and I can imagine Dad will be helping him out with potential loan deals as he did when the younger Ferguson was at Preston North End (they already have signed 3 Manchester United youngsters on loan), but I still feel that may not be enough.


Posh were known for their goal scoring exploits last season and they were a popular pick for the 'both teams to score market' last season, a sign that may lead to their downfall this season.


The loss of Craig Mackail-Smith will hurt the side, but it is the sheer amount of goals they concede that could see them struggling to survive in this tough Division. I think their chances of surviving have been overestimated slightly by the layers so I will back them to go back down to League One.




MY PICKS: Leicester City to win the Championship @ 6.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton to win Promotion @ 6.50 BetFred (1 Unit)
Peterborough United to be Relegated @ 3.50 William Hill (2 Units)

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