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Showing posts with label Ante-Post. Show all posts
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Wednesday, 7 September 2011

NFL NFC Breakdown

With the NFL just days away, and with our own football currently in the middle of an international break, this seems like a good time to get writing about the upcoming American Football season.

I was worried we wouldn't see any games played this season, but thankfully the labour dispute was resolved and the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will be good to go on Thursday night.

I have decided to have a brief look at the two Conferences in different posts, just to get an idea of how teams are likely to play this season and I will post my ante-post picks on Thursday morning.

NFC
NFC EAST
Where else to start but what was recently the most competitive Division in the NFL let alone the NFC. This year it doesn't seem to be the case with one team looking head and shoulders above their rivals.


Philadelphia Eagles: If you don't know what the Philadelphia Eagles have been doing this off-season, you need to get your head back in the NFL game. They have made some big plays in the free agency market as they get a team together that is geared for winning now and the SuperBowl is the aim.


Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have come in to sure up the iffy Secondary from last season while Jason Babin is sure to help providing the burst to attack opposition QBs. The Defense may have to play aggressively to cover up the short comings that remain in the middle of the field, with the weakness being at Linebacker and Safety.


Michael Vick will be under a different sort of pressure this season with expectations vastly increased following his performances last season. The Eagles will be hoping he can steer clear of injury, something he is susceptible to with his style of play. Vince Young will be backing him up, while Ronnie Brown has come in from Miami to back up LeSean McCoy.


The Eagles look the team to beat in this Division.


New York Giants: I would have been favouring the New York Giants to be the closest team to the Eagles, but injuries have decimated the Defense during the pre-season. Eli Manning may be a SuperBowl winning QB, but I am not convinced with him and he seems a little too erratic in terms of performances for me.


The Giants could have a decent season if they avoid any further injuries, but the NFL is not that forgiving and I think they will fall away come November.


Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting team that does not have the expectation of last season that crushed their Play Off hopes before the season got to November.


Tony Romo is back at QB and I expect Dez Bryant will improve on last years rookie performance. The biggest problem for the Cowboys last season was their suspect Secondary and they don't seem to have improved in that department.


However, Rob Ryan comes in as Defensive Co-Ordinator and I expect he will use enough variations and schemes to confuse the opposition enough that they cannot take full advantage of their shortcomings.


I expect the Cowboys will go close for a Wild Card spot at best.


Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan's rebuilding of this once proud franchise will continue this season and I expect things will not improve their 6-10 record from last season.


There are signs that things are on the way up for Redskins fans, but seeing either John Beck or Rex Grossman lead the Offense is enough to put anyone off. Donovan McNabb was traded to Minnesota so I don't really expect this team to be one to hang 30-40 points on teams.


The Defense is likely to keep the team in some games, but I think the Skins will find it tough in this Division to keep up with some high octane Offenses and they are destined to finish bottom of the East this season... However, things are at least beginning to look brighter for the future.




NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The SuperBowl Champions may not have made a lot of free agency moves, but they have got a lot of players back from injury and look more than capable of making another run for the big one. Aaron Rodgers is an exceptional QB and he has plenty of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball that I can see them putting up lots of points.


The Defense is still solid, although they did miss out bringing in Nnamdi Asomugha in the off-season. The Pack look an all round good team and I expect they will be participating in the postseason and they could go deep.


Chicago Bears: The Chicago Bears had a better season than expected last season but the reigning North Champions are not being touted as having the same impact this year. The Defense is now another year older, while doubts remain over the abilities of Jay Cutler to lead the team on the Offense.


The trade of Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers was a strange move, and they may be hoping the Mike Martz Offense can spark a revival in Roy Williams who came in after spending time with the Dallas Cowboys.


This is a tough Division and it may be hard for Lovie Smith's troop to make it back to the postseason.


Detroit Lions: For the first time in an absolute age, the Lions look like having a really bright future. The Defense has been upgraded again from last season, when they shut down the Packers in both Divisional matches, and they have a real chance to make some noise in the NFC IF they can keep Matt Stafford healthy.


Stafford looks like a quality QB in the making, but his first 2 seasons have been decimated by injury. He showed enough promise in the games he did play to suggest the Lions have a good future to look forward to, especially with Calvin Johnson as one of the top WRs in the game.


I see an improvement for the squad this season, but whether that is good enough to get a Wild Card spot is yet to be determined and could rest on Stafford's injury issues.


Minnesota Vikings: A turbulent 2010 for the Vikings shows no real sign of improvement this season in my opinion. Donovan McNabb looks like a QB that doesn't have a lot left in the tank, while Sidney Rice has moved on to Seattle.


The Defense is a year older and there will be a lot of pressure on Adrian Peterson to keep the team driving forward.


The Vikings were built to 'win now' when bringing in Brett Favre in 2009, and that window has now closed with a transitional season in the offing.




NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons' deficiencies were shown up by the Packers in the Play Offs last season and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. The team won a lot of close games and that means a slight change in fortune could see them taking several steps back.


There is a lot of talent in the team from QB Matt Ryan to WR Roddy White to DE John Abraham. However, Michael Turner may just have lost a half-step this season at RB, and I think the Falcons will do well to repeat as the NFC South Champions, let alone finishing as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.


New Orleans Saints: The Saints managed to reach the postseason last year as the defending SuperBowl Champions, but a shocking defeat to the Seattle Seahawks kind of summed up their season.


They have made a few moves in the off-season, releasing Reggie Bush and bringing in Darren Sproles to freshen up the RB position, while signing Olin Kreutz and Shaun Rodgers look like good moves.


The team was blighted by inconsistent performances last season, but I think they will win the South this year.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccs were the surprise package of the NFC last season and they were a little unfortunate to miss the postseason as they are in the toughest Division in the Conference (in my opinion).

However, they are a young team and I think they are still a little short of making a splash, and I actually feel they may have a drop off in performance as Defensive Co-Ordinators will have a better feel of what to expect.



Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera is putting together the Panthers and all eyes will be on Number 1 Draft Pick Cam Newton- I think he has the potential to be a top QB, but his lack of playing time in College along with the long lockout means it will be tough for him this year.


We can expect a lot of running from this team, but it is hard to imagine they will score enough points to win a lot of games... In saying that, I expect them to improve a little from last year although not enough to move out of the basement in this Division.




NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks: Seattle managed to win this Division with a losing record last year and then reached the Divisional Round of the Play Offs after stunning the Saints in the Wild Card Round.


It is hard to get excited about a team that has Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB, although he will at least have the benefit of playing with Sidney Rice, his team-mate from Minnesota.


Will they improve on their 7-9 record? I don't think so this year as the Division looks to be a little better now the St Louis Rams are a year older and Arizona Cardinals have a QB.


St Louis Rams: I am expecting some good things from the Rams this season, especially if Sam Bradford plays like he did last season.


Steve Spagnuola has already got the Defensive unit playing well and I think they are the best team in the Division, although it will be interesting to see how they play with a lot more expectations on their shoulders.


They came close to winning the Division last year, and I think they will this year.


Arizona Cardinals: I liked the move to bring in Kevin Kolb, even at what looks like a high price on first glance, because he gives this team at least a chance of winning, something John Skelton and Derek Anderson did not.


The signing also persuaded Larry Fitzgerald to stay in the desert and I think they will be much improved from last year. However, they have lost some key players like Steve Breaston on the Offense and the Defense is a definite weak point.


This team needs to be going in the right direction if Ken Whisenhunt is still in a job in January.


San Francisco 49ers: It's so hard to feel confident in this squad when they continue to use Alex Smith as their QB- Smith has been given numerous chances over the years since being drafted as the Number 1 Pick overall, and he hasn't been helped by a number of different Offensive schemes to learn in that time, but he looks far too inconsistent to build a team around.


The Defense is a tough unit, but they can only do so much to keep the 49ers in games.


Jim Harbaugh will need time to turn the team around after a decade of decadence- I expect they will look good in a few games but still fail to reach 0.500 for the season.




WINNERS
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St Louis Rams


Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys

Saturday, 13 August 2011

English Premier League Ante-Post selections

The Premier League is back today and it could not have come soon enough as far as I am concerned. It has been a miserable few months trying to actually pass the time on a Saturday- did anyone else realise how bad TV is on a Saturday afternoon? Well the channel flicking is over, Soccer Saturday is back and live football from the 'best League in the World'.

I thought I would have a quick look through the ante-post selections:


Winner
After the Community Shield last week, Manchester United hardened as Premier League title winners. I expect the boys should be good enough to get to Number 20 this season, but there is no value taking the prices on offer just yet... Why you ask? Take a quick look at United's start to the season and I would be very surprised if they are not a bigger price come the end of October.


With tough trips to Bolton, Stoke, Liverpool and Everton before that date, as well as entertaining Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City, it is conceivable that United will not be top of the table come November 1st and could be at a much better price than the 2.63 I have seen floating about.


I expect Manchester City to be United's closest challengers this season but I am not convinced with Roberto Mancini as manager. I find the Italian overly cautious which leads to City dropping points against teams they shouldn't and Mancini is also far too negative when playing the better teams.


However, they have a much more negotiable start to the season yet I have this feeling Mancini will aid them to lose too many points over the course of the next 9 months.


I can see Chelsea making a decent start to the season and would not be surprised if they lead the way as November begins- while the team is ageing, I think there are plenty of big characters in the dressing room that would have been hurt by last season and I also think Fernando Torres will actually return to form.


At the prices on offer, I think the value is on City to win the title, but I won't be backing them with concerns over Mancini and I will wait for the first 3 months and re-check prices before I dive into this market.




Top 4
I fully expect the 3 title contenders to finish in the top 4 this season, but I have real concerns for Arsenal. The loss of Cesc Fabregas will hurt this side, but the additional loss of Samir Nasri could be tragic for their chances of even finishing in the top 4.

The sides most likely to capitalise on any lapse from the Gunners are Liverpool and Tottenham.

Liverpool have been surprisingly active in the transfer market since the end of last season, but they still need to strengthen a defence that looks a little short of cover. I am not that convinced with the signings of Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson but I do think Stewart Downing could flourish as he has Andy Carroll to aim for with his crosses.

The lack of European commitment will really help Liverpool too, allowing Kenny Dalglish to keep his side fresh all season, and they have a real chance if Carroll and Luis Suarez can gel.

While Liverpool's transfer activity has been a little surprising, Tottenham's lack of activity must be a real concern for the fans. White Hart Lane got a real taste for the Champions League last season, but I still think they need a top quality striker to finish off the chances created by a very good midfield. Gomes is a bit of a concern in goal, but it is the lack of a top quality forward that will prevent this team moving forward as far as I am concerned.

Spurs have a tough start to the new season and could be playing catch up early on, but I would have favoured them to move up a place from last season if they had brought in a forward- there are still 2 weeks of the transfer window left so it is possible they do that before August 31st, but I think the play has to be the Scousers getting in at odds against.


Relegation
Much like last season, I expect there to be a real scrap at the bottom of the Premier League this season. There are too many teams that don't seem to have much about them that could struggle this year but the value play may be on a team suffering a 'second season syndrome'... How about someone like Newcastle United?

Newcastle have been in turmoil all Summer and have lost some key players like Kevin Nolan and Jose Enrique while Joey Barton has one foot out of the door. The signing of Gabriel Oberton does not inspire me in the slightest and if the Magpies make a bad start, they could find themselves in deep trouble come Christmas.

It is no surprise to see Norwich City and Swansea City as short favourites to return to the Championship, but QPR could find themselves in more trouble after the rich owners decided they will NOT splash the cash in the transfer window. There is obviously some concerns with their relationship with Neil Warnock, and it just seems not everyone is pulling in the same direction at Loftus Road.

The fans have been alienated with a huge hike in ticket prices and there just does not seem to be the positive vibes in this part of West London that should be associated with a first top flight appearance since 1996.

QPR look a decent price to return to the Championship, especially if they do not take advantage of what looks a soft start to the season.

I had a look at a couple of other options, notably Wigan and Blackburn- the former will be a lot shorter if they fail to make hay in their opening 3 games against the promoted sides, while the latter struggled in the back half of last season and do not look that much stronger this year.


Top Scorer
I think it shows something about the lack of top quality strikers in the Premier League when you look through a list for top scorers and only have a couple of real options.

I think Javier Hernandez is far too short considering this is only his 2nd season in England, and Wayne Rooney is the better choice. That leads me to my first pick from this section and that is Rooney to be Manchester United's top scorer at a standout 2.50 at Blue Square. I expect Rooney to play the majority of games, while he is also the penalty taker at Old Trafford.

Rooney will be getting additional service from the wings through Ashley Young and I can see him returning to the form he displayed 2 seasons ago.

But for the overall top scorer, I think an interest in Darren Bent each way looks the way to go- Bent is a proven scorer at this level and has been nominated as the penalty taker at Villa Park.

While he has lost the service provided by Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, the arrival of Charles N'Zogbia should help him and we have seen from his time at Sunderland that Bent makes the most of any chances that do come his way.

I am not sure how Villa are going to do this season, but I can see the majority of their goals coming through Bent and he looks the best price to at least reach the top 4 places come May.


MY PICKS: Liverpool to finish in the top 4 @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United to be relegated @ 6.5 (1 Unit)
QPR to be relegated @ 2.63 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Wayne Rooney top scorer for Manchester United @ 2.50 Blue Square (2 Units)
Darren Bent top Premier League goalscorer @ 13.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units e/w) Top 4 places pays e/w

Friday, 5 August 2011

The English Championship Ante-Post Picks

It's almost time for the English domestic season to get up and running so I thought I would put down my picks for the upcoming season with yet another preview that I am sure many would have already read.

I will break down the different markets that I am looking to back and hopefully we will have something to celebrate in May 2012.


Push for the Title
The market is surprisingly not very tight at the top considering the nature of this Division over the last few seasons and there are two clear favourites in the 'Winner' market as the layers believe it will be either West Ham United or Leicester City that will take the crown.


I don't really disagree and it is the latter of those two teams that I feel has the best opportunity to win the Division with the classy nature of the signings they have made. Sven Goran Eriksson has been backed in the market by the owners of the club and you can only be impressed with the signings of the likes of Matt Mills, Kasper Schmeichel, John Paintsil, Paul Konchesky and David Nugent.


The loan capture of Michael Johnson from Manchester City could be the key to their success this season as the midfielder is a very effective operator. Leicester will look to get the best out of Johnson who has suffered with long term injury issues, but if they can get him out there for the majority of games, I can see him having a big season.


Sam Allardyce has made some good signings at Upton Park, particularly getting Kevin Nolan in from Newcastle, but there is still an element of doubt over which players will still be at the club after August 31st and so I do feel Leicester are the better option here.




Promotion
With the Championship being the way it is, there are plenty of prices that look reasonable when it comes to picking sides that may break into the Promised Land in May.

The top two teams I mentioned in the above section are understandably looking short, but that means there is a bit of value to be found in other places.

Last season we saw Norwich win successive promotions from League One through to the Premier League and it may be the turn of Southampton to follow suit this season.

The Saints are another side that have been backed by owners who believe the Premier League is their destiny and they have a very good manager in Nigel Adkins that would have experienced the pressures of the Championship in his time as manager of Scunthorpe.

They have not been as active in the transfer market as I thought they might be this Summer, but that means they have a settled squad and also have a very strong record at St Mary's over the last season. That could earn them a surprise place in the Premier League next May.


Relegation
According to the layers, Barnsley and Doncaster Rovers are the big favourites to go down this season and while I cannot argue with the former too much, I really feel the latter can survive under the guidance of Sean O'Driscoll.


That means there are going to be a couple of other places available that teams will want to avoid and I cannot help thinking that Peterborough United could be occupying one of them at the end of the season.


I have a slight soft spot for Peterborough as they are managed by Darren Ferguson and I can imagine Dad will be helping him out with potential loan deals as he did when the younger Ferguson was at Preston North End (they already have signed 3 Manchester United youngsters on loan), but I still feel that may not be enough.


Posh were known for their goal scoring exploits last season and they were a popular pick for the 'both teams to score market' last season, a sign that may lead to their downfall this season.


The loss of Craig Mackail-Smith will hurt the side, but it is the sheer amount of goals they concede that could see them struggling to survive in this tough Division. I think their chances of surviving have been overestimated slightly by the layers so I will back them to go back down to League One.




MY PICKS: Leicester City to win the Championship @ 6.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton to win Promotion @ 6.50 BetFred (1 Unit)
Peterborough United to be Relegated @ 3.50 William Hill (2 Units)